UA-33754892-1 Archives for 31 July 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Bridgestone Invitational

Another profitable week last week and much like the week before it was very close to being seriously rewarding. I very rarely back favourites, especially as short as 11/2 but I thought this was a good price about Rory Mcilroy last week. So did a man in Northern Ireland who had €50,000 on him! He was not good. Four under thru nine was as good as it got for Mcilroy who seemed distracted, complacent and disinterested. Seve Benson missed the cut as his poor form continues and Gregory Bourdy did not show up either.

Stephen Gallacher was our saviour in Ireland. The 100/1 chance birdied the last to finish third by himself. He is one of the best ball strikers in Europe and is a smart putter from outside 10 feet. He is a little difficult to watch inside 10 feet but he did us proud this week. He returned 25 points to offset the 7 we lost in Ireland.

At The Greenbrier we looked set to show a nice return. Webb Simpson was made favourite entering the final round having been tipped at 25/1. My other tip, 100/1 chance Chris Couch was in 5th and looking good to land an each way return and not completely out of contention for the title. Couch flat lined on Sunday shooting a disappointing level par to finish 11th. Webb Simpson raced to the turn in -2 to lead with 9 to play. However the Simpson frustration continued. He has so much ability and statistically is the best player on the US Tour but under pressure his routine gets slow and his swing and putting stroke gets very quick. He is not technically great and it shows under pressure. Having said this he has been in contention on so many Sundays now that either experience or law of averages should get him over the line soon.

So despite looking like we were going to further line our pockets on Sunday evening it ended in relative disappointment which was only lifted by landing the accumulator. Webb Simpson dominated Howell III, Woodland beat Levin, Couch had the only close game beating Davis by 2 and another impressive week from De Jonge saw him land the money, defeating a cut missing Gay. We made 12.91 points on the accumulator meaning a profit of 24.91 on the week. A nice return that could have been so much better. Our 2011 running total now stands at +170.96 or £1709.60 to a £10 stake.

On to this weeks event, the World Golf Championship’s Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. The big news this week is that Tiger is back. Normally I would be pretty excited about that but it is becoming a repetitive anti-climax. He is speaking a pretty good game and you can never underestimate him but despite his seven wins here I can’t see him contending. He appears to be imploding a little and making some pretty strange decisions. I think a bigger problem is he and his team are overly secretive and alienating a lot of fans. Surely he has had enough controversy and a little up front honesty and clarity would not go amiss. Maybe he should show a little respect for the people that have supported him. Tiger and his team’s actions suggest he they believe he is bigger than the game. He may have been, but he certainly is not anymore.

So who will win? It is an awesome line up in a limited field so ultra competitive with tighter prices. That combination does not make it easy. I like Van Pelt, Jason Day, Toms, Watney, Stricker, Kuchar, Mahan, Zach Johnson, Westwood and Mickelson.

The Firestone course is demanding tee to green. It is 7400 yard par 70 although it tends to play a little shorter with fast, running fairways. There are some storms forecast on Wednesday but it should not affect the course too much. Looking at previous years it favours ball strikers and there is a clear emphasis on finding fairways and greens.

Toms is a master at finding fairways and greens and was in devastating form at the start of the season. He ranks first in greens and second in driving accuracy. It will be a speculative punt as he has been out injured since the start of July when he withdrew from the John Deere with a hip injury. I have no doubt that he will be ready as next week the USPGA returns to the Atlantic Athletic Club where he won in 2001. He must have been motivated to get it ready. If he is in the same sort of form then he is the value in the field at 90/1 as the enforced absence has been built into the price.

Now trying to separate the talented yankee young guns. Day, Kuchar, Watney and Mahan. Day immediately looked appealing at 40/1 as it was the biggest price but seeing he is 161st in driving accuracy is off-putting. He can win but the others have better credentials. Kuchar is the next to be left out. He finished T9 here last year but two missed cuts in a row is not what you want to see from someone priced at 30/1.

Mahan defends this week. He has had a solid year but is just not firing when it matters. He has missed the cut in all three Majors this year and this may sound harsh considering he is 22nd in the FedEx Cup standings but he does not seem to have the confidence he did pre Ryder Cup disappointment. That combined with zero top 25’s in his last five starts means I am going to have leave him out. So Watney is going to get the nod. He finished 16th here last year but comes here carrying good form and the correct profile. We backed him when he won at the AT&T a month ago and he can win here. He is 14th in total driving, 18th in greens hit and 5th in putting. A pretty handy combination considering he has played all the hardest venues and very few of the easy ones (like the Bob Hope which flatters the stats). 25/1, get on!

Bo Van Pelt killed us two weeks ago. Choking like a dog down the stretch to finish 6th. He has game. Six top fifteens in seven starts but he just can’t get it done. He is 7th in total driving and 9th in greens and finished 3rd here last year. 50/1 is a fair price but I fear he has reached that stage where he has had so many chances and not converted that it starts eating you up and you go the wrong way. There is some each way value in the price but I am going to pass. He was disloyal to me two weeks ago so I won’t feel bad being disloyal to him......unless he wins!!

Steve Stricker. What a player. His stats are incredible. He has won two of his last four starts which is no surprise as he is the best putter on tour and quite possibly the best wedge player too. He also leads birdie and scoring average. Frankly he is awesome but he is not long and that may be against him here. He has finished in the top ten the last two years but he is only 18/1 and that is a win only price. The same sort of goes for Mickelson and Westwood. Mickelson is simply too short at 20/1. He missed the cut last week making a whole bunch of bogies. He says he feels his game is close. It did not look like it. For Westwood the course could not set up better apart from the greens are lightening fast. He should go close and if he were a little bigger than 16/1 then he would be a nice each way bet. His performance in The Open is a little worrying but he did have 8 top 15’s in a row before that. He is the best driver of the ball and the best iron player in the world. But when I look at these three, Stricker is the only one I could back to win.

It is a tough week. There is very little value and nobody really stands out as a cracking bet. It is very competitive. One who looks a little overpriced and is in good form is Zach Johnson. It is not perfect for him here as he ranks 181st in driving distance but is 8th in driving accuracy and 9th in putting. He has done ok here in the past, three top 15’s in the last four years and has surprised at courses that don’t appear to suit before. e.g. Augusta. 50/1 is worth an interest.

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WGC Bridgestone Invitational

3 pts win Steve Stricker @ 18/1
2 pts win Nick Watney @ 25/1
1pt each way Zach Johnson @ 50/1
1 pt each way David Toms @ 90/1

2011 running total +170.96 pts This weeks investment 9 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.