UA-33754892-1 Archives for 30 September 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Alfred Dunhill Links and Safeway Open

The Alfred Dunhill Championship

This is a tough tournament to bet with a large field, a rotation of three courses over the first three days and weather which varies considerably. Often it is decided by which course one is playing on a bad weather day. At St Andrews bad weather is no bother, at Carnoustie it makes it brutal. Add to this the courses are set up to accommodate the amateurs in the field so there is little rough and pins are placed in central and accessible positions. This only brings the field closer together. We have seen guys like Oliver Wilson win here because of this set up.

One could easily argue any of the players at the top of the market. Fleetwood, Brooks, Hatton and Finau all have far chances. How they come out of last week's Ryder Cup and how much steam they have left may well be a determining factor.

I am going to risk Fleetwood to keep going for one more week, and also have a little play on Kuchar who appears to be a generous price. I would be 25/1 and 45/1 available, 55 on betfair.

To Win

0.25 points Matt Kuchar @ 46 (-0.25)
0.5 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 15 (-0.5)

Top 5

0.5 points Matt Kuchar @ 11 (-0.5)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

1 points Matthew Fitzpatrick to beat Lowry @ 1.91 (+0.91)
0.5 points Grace to beat Oosthuizen @ 1.83 (-0.5)

The Safeway Open

This is the opening event of the of the new season. It is on a shot course at 7145 yards but still a par 72 with four par 5s. Hence scoring tends to go fairly deep if there is no wind. This is even the case when to course only offers an 85% make rate from inside 10ft, one of the lowest on Tour.

To Win

0.25 points Adam Hadwin @ 41 (-0.25)
0.25 points Russel Henley @ 67 (-0.25)
0.25 points Tyler Duncan @ 151 (-0.25)
0.25 points Jason Dusner @ 101 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.5 points Russell Henley @ 13 (-0.5)
0.4 points Tyler Ducan @ 41(-0.4)
0.4 points Adam Hadwin @ 9 (-0.4)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2 points Lucas Glover to beat Jones @ 1.83 (+1.66)
0.4 points Joaquin Niemann to beat Grillo @ 1.83 (-0.4)
1 point Ollie Schniederjans to beat Rodgers @ 1.83 (-1)

This week's P&L = -2.88
This week’s investment = 6.45 points

This week's Outright P&L = -3.55
This weeks's Outright Investment = 3.55 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +0.67
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 2.9 points

2018 Total P&L =  -104.94 points

2018 Total Investment = 1858.39 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
-33.73 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 884.94 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -71.21 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 974.84 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan.  Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.  

It is important to focus on bet size.  It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.  

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide.  So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection.  Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year.  The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account.  This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more.  Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones.  It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated.  The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested.  The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.