UA-33754892-1 Archives for 29 April 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Wells Fargo Championship and The Spanish Open

This week sees two good events.  Let's start in the US where the Tour finds itself in Charlotte, North Carolina at the Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship.  Quail Hollow is one of the hardest par 72 courses on the Tour.  The weather is set fair for the four tournament days.  The difficulty in the course is on and around the greens.  Last year there were 15 players who finished in the top 10 and ties.  Of these only 5 were ranked in the top 25 in greens in regulation but 12 of the 15 were ranked in the top 25 in putting and 10 of the 15 in total footage holed.  Therefore this is short game over long game..... Where did Luke Donald go?!

My short list included John Senden and Lee Westwood.  They are long game experts (ranked 4th and 1st respectively in greens in reg) but it is difficult to back players ranked 131st and 144th in putting when seeing the stats above.  This leaves me Keegan Bradley, Bo Van Pelt, Woods and Mickelson.

I am ignoring Mcilroy, the 8/1 fav, as I am not convinced that his limited schedule is going to work.  For me he has always played his best when playing a lot.  He is the course record holder but not for me.  

The hardest thing this week is trying to separate Woods and Mickelson.  Look at how they compare.

Woods V Mickelson 
Odds. 10/1 V 11/1
Course form. Won in 07 and 4 top 11's in 5 starts V 6 top 10's in 8 starts.
Key Stats. 9th in scrambling, 9th in putting V 1st in scrambling, 3rd in putting.
Other stats. 1st in scoring, 2nd total driving V 2nd in bogey avoidance.

I want to side with Woods as he seems to be the better over all player but Mickelson's key stats are so perfect for this course and Mickelson's third at Augusta is more encouraging than Wood's 40th with zero sub par rounds, so 'Hefty' just gets the nod.

My other two picks are Keegan Bradley and Bo Van Pelt.  Bradley is coming off a missed cut but his all round game is such a perfect fit for this venue.  He is the 14th longest on Tour, 25th in greens, 25th in putting, 8th in scoring and 18th in bogey avoidance.  I like him at 35/1.  BVP is ranked 1st in putting, 1st in birdies or better conversion rate and 1st in final day scoring average.  He finished in the top 6 here in '06 and '10 and is definitely worth a go at 40/1.

It will be an emotional week this week in Seville as the Spanish Open coincides with the 1st anniversary of Seve's passing.  I think Jimenez will feed of this and his recent good form.  He registered only two bogies in difficult conditions in Korea last week and although this course is long, you have to be accurate. This looks like his week and 25/1 is very fair.

Danny Willett is a player who looks like he has regained a bit of form.  Worth a go at 66/1.

Wells Fargo Championship

4 points Phil Mickelson @ 11/1

1.5 points each way Keegan Bradley @ 35/1
2 points each way Bo Van Pelt @ 40/1

Open De España

2 points each way Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 25/1

1 point each way Danny Willett @ 66/1

2012 running total +30.13 points. This weeks investment 17 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf