UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 February 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Cadillac Championship

WGC Cadillac Championship - Outright
2 points each way JB Holmes @ 28/1 (-4)
1 point each way Marc Leishman @ 70/1 (80/1 VC) (-2)
2 points each way Byeong-Hun An @ 70/1 (80/1 VC) (-4)

WGC Cadillac Championship - Top 20
10 points Byeong-Hun An @ 7/4 (15/8 with Ladbrokes) (-10)

WGC Cadillac Championship - Round 1 Three Balls
2 points JB Holmes @ 6/4 to beat Mickelson and Kisner (-2)

WGC Cadillac Championship - Round 1 Matches
2 points JB Holmes @ 20/21 to beat Justin Rose (bet365) (-2)

WGC Cadillac Championship - Day 2 Three balls
2 points Charley Hoffman @ 6/4 to beat Grillo and Aphibarnrat (+3)
2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 11/8 to beat Thomas and Lahiri (-2)

WGC Cadillac Championships - Day 3 Two Balls
2 point double Bubba Watson @ 1/2 to beat Charley Hoffman and Charl Schwartzel @ 6/10 to beat Lahiri (-2)

WGC Cadillac Championship - Day 4 Two Balls
2 points George Coetzee @ 8/11 to beat Jordan Zunic (+1.45)
2 points Byeong-Hun An @ Evs to beat David Lingmerth (-2)
2 points J.B. Holmes @ 4/6 to beat Chris Wood (-2)
2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 4/6 to beat Charley Hoffman (-2)

This week's P&L = -29.55
This week’s investment = 38 points

This week's Outright P&L = -10
This weeks's Outright Investment = 10 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -19.55
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 28 points

WGC Cadillac Championship

Perhaps this is the week we have been waiting for. This may be the last time the WGC Cadillac Championship is played at Trump National Doral and almost certainly the last time Cadillac sponsor, but with a very strong line up of players and the weather set fair it looks like a fantastic betting opportunity.

The one thing against the event is the number of players the course eliminates by its shear length. Since the changes in 2013 it has been dominated by long hitters. This is a shame for the event but good for finding some value. To back this statement up consider the length, 7543 yards. Consider that since 2013, 3 of the top 5 on the final leaderboard ranked inside the top 4 in measured drives for the week, in both editions. Consider that in 2014 and 2015 the course ranked inside the top 10 toughest to find fairways, to hit greens and to scramble. Length is a big deal here and the bottom of the last two leaderboards are littered with shorter hitters.

Dustin Johnson won here last year he ranked third in driving distance and he lead greens in regulation but still carded 10 bogies. This was still tied for the lowest number of bogies for the week. It is a tough test and the wind will blow as normal, but not as strong as two years ago when it howled and really beat these players up.

I really like three players this week.

Top of my list is
JB Holmes. Last year on his WGC Cadillac debut he opened with an unbelievable 62 to lead by 4, he played the next 36 in -1 to lead by 2 after 2 rounds and 5 shots after 3 rounds. A closing 75 cost him and he finished 2nd to Dustin Johnson. He obviously likes the course and he certainly fits the profile as a long hitter. He also hits a bullet fade which works well in the wind. The question marks surround his putting and his bottle. His putting has been solid of late though, as has his form. He finished 8th at the Hero, 24th at the Hyundai TOC, after a decent amount of time off, since then 6th at The Farmers, 6th in Phoenix, 11th at AT&T and 11th at Northern Trust. The 6th at Phoenix was ok, the course sets up very well for him and he's won there before. To me the two 11th place finishes are more encouraging as they were on courses he would not normally enjoy. Short, fairly tight with small and undulating greens. I like him here at 28/1, 30/1 in a couple of places.

Bubba Watson is second on my list. His course form, even before the changes, is incredibly good. 2-18-2-3. He is coming off the back of a win at the Northern Trust and obviously is the perfect fit for this. I would have Bubba as favourite for this but do remember that JB beat him at Phoenix and at the AT&T, as well as in this last year. 12/1, I wouldn't put people off backing him but not for me.

I am also fairly keen on
Marc Leishman's chances. There are a number of risks associated with backing him. His form has been yo-yoing and he is on debut. Sandwiched between his win at The Nedbank and his 5th last time out at the Northern Trust were two ugly missed cuts at the Career Builder and The Farmers. Can we forgive him these two off weeks? I think so. He had played a lot of golf, took a few weeks off and bounced back with a 5th. He has done well at the very top level before and the tougher the course the better he is. I think he is worth a chance at 70/1.

Finally I like
Byeong-Hun An. His form is the best around, even with a fairly sparse schedule. The only thing missing is a win, but he has shown he is capable of that when winning the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth last year. He debuts here but his form reads 3rd BMW Masters, 4th DP World Champs, 8th Nedbank, 4th Thailand, 5th Abu Dhabi and 4th in Dubai. His average finish since last November is 4.7th! He also has eleven top 20s in his last 13 starts world wide. Incredible constancy and he fits the profile nicely. 70/1 is a cracking price as is 7/4 about a top 20.

The 7/4 (15/8 Ladbrokes) about a top 20 really stands out as an incredible bet. 11 top 20s in his last 13 starts worldwide in mainly full field, strong events, there's only 66 or 67 here (depending if Van Zyl plays) so it does really stand out as a cracking bet.

Behind these four I also like, in order,
Scott, Dustin, Rory, Stenson, Willett, and Reed. A value outsider to consider is Kristoffer Broberg at 175/1 or for a top 20 at 7/1.

2016 Total P&L = -30.63 points

2016 Total Investment = 363.5 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L = -23.45 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 66.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L = -7.18 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 297 points