UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 August 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Deutsche Bank and Omega European Masters

Deutsche Bank - Outright (Starts Friday)

Last week, in the Made in Denmark event, Thomas Pieters came out top of my rankings, but I did not back him as I thought his price was too short. Second on the list was Bradley Dredge. They obviously finished 1st and 2nd whilst I was hunting for value elsewhere. In fairness, Mikael Lundberg finished 10th at 200/1 outrunning his price. Anyway, I am not going to make the same mistake this week.

The reason for this is simple. There is no way of looking past Jason Day for the Deutsche Bank. Every angle you take to look for an alternative gets blocked by his shadow. He leads my rankings comfortably, he leads the all around, putting and strokes gained stats. In 9 starts in Boston he has 6 top 20s and 3 top 10s but anyone putting like he is right now has to be respected. He has a lot of room for improvement from the tee and if he gets it going straight from the tee he is one of the few players capable of separating himself from the field. 13/2 is not huge, but in a limited field it is fair.

Of the others Spieth is certainly trending in the right direction and I also like Scott but Day is certainly the man to beat.

5 points Jason Day @ 13/2

Omega European Masters - Outright

Bradley Dredge is the only person who ticks any boxes to win this. 33/1 is fair and is therefore a bet. He has been very consistent all season and only a shaky third round stopped his charge. I think he liked the taste and the course suits him to go well again.

Closest to Dredge is David Lipsky who looks too short at 30/1. Hatton and Westwood have to be respected at 14/1 and 25/1 but I have some big prices ahead of them. I think Benjamin Hebert @ 125/1 is a decent price as is Paul Dunne @ 80/1. David Howell at 66/1 knows this course as well as anyone and Rich Bland @ 80/1 has been hugely consistent all season. Joakim Lagergren looks big at 150/1 when considering his form last week, although the rest of his season suggests the price is about right, but this course isn't dissimilar to last week. Joe Kruger could be a sneaky one at a big price, 250/1 and been plodding along ok this year.

The thought thing is how you separate them. Well, Dredge is a bet so lets get him in first

1.5 point each way Bradley Dredge @ 33/1

Hebert struggled in the middle of the summer with poor performances in Ireland, Nordea, BMW Int, and the French and Scottish. He took a break and came back well last week in Denmark. I think he can back that performance up as we saw last season, he can play well for long periods and is stronger towards the end of the season.

0.5 points each way Benjamin Hebert @ 125/1

I've seen Dunne play a bit, he is ok, but I don't see him as a future superstar. He played nicely last week but has been very in and out and hasn't taken to things as well as some expected. Switzerland needs some experience and course knowledge so therefore we will pass on Dunne @ 80/1.

David Howell has the experience and his last 3 starts have been solid. The first two, The Open and The Scottish were a while ago but he played very nicely in the Czech the week before last. 66/1 is a good price.

1 point each way David Howell @ 66/1

Rich Bland @ 80/1 appears to be a no brainer. My concern with Bland is only his performance in the Volvo China Open was realistically good enough to win. He is so steady this year and if you could back him to finish 10th to 30th you would be happy betting even money, but can he step up and get involved? Here length is not an issue, it appears to be when rather than if, he is worth chancing again.

1 point each way Rich Bland @ 80/1

Joakim Lagergren played well last week, outside of that there is not a lot to get excited about and I think he is flying high in my figures purely due to lack of recent events. He can go well again at 150/1 but I'll not be backing him this time.

Jbe Kruger saves a lot of his best stuff for Asia. This season he has good form in Austria and Denmark too which bodes well for this test. He is worth supporting at 250/1.

0.5 points each way Jbe Kruger @ 250/1

This week's outright bets
5 points Jason Day @ 13/2 (-5)
1.5 points each way Bradley Dredge @ 33/1 (-3)
0.5 points each way Benjamin Hebert @ 125/1 (-1)
1 point each way David Howell @ 66/1 (-2)

1 point each way Rich Bland @ 80/1 (+19)
0.5 points each way Jbe Kruger @ 250/1 (-1)

This week's P&L = +7
This week’s investment = 14 points

This week's Outright P&L = +7
This weeks's Outright Investment = 14 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L =
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 0 points

2016 Total P&L = -103.54 points

2016 Total Investment =  1127.9 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -24.45 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 294.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -79.09 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 838.4 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.