UA-33754892-1 Archives for 28 April 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Volvo China Open and Wells Fargo Championship

I wrote a lovely paragraph about last week’s winner Billy Horschel in my preview to the event. The paragraph explained why he was likely to do well but also why I would not be backing him. Well, clearly, a mistake was made. But it was the right decision. You can’t back them all. Elsewhere it was just a typical week with a couple of the picks never getting going and a couple of others, namely Kirk and Aphribarnrat, threatening to get involved before faltering. We lost 9 points leaving us at -99.55 points for the year. The big 100 looms! We have never been there before and I don’t particularly want to visit ‘3 figure down territory’ so we had better get it right this week.

The ‘European Tour’ is in China this week. The market is dominated by guys that went well in Korea last week. There is not much going on. I would kind of fancy David Howell (40/1) and Aphribarnrat (33/1) to go well at the prices but neither have a particularly good record in China. The two I am going to keep on side at bigger prices are Edoardo Mollinari at 66/1 and Johan Edfors at 150/1. The course is long at 7667 yards and has a links style. It should set up well for them. Mollinari has been working with Sean Foley which is a bit of a step up from Dennis Pugh and is starting to see the results of the hard work, he finished 23rd here last year on debut. Edfors has also showen glimpses. He started strongly las week before slipping to 26th. He won a national event in Sweden a couple of weeks ago and has a decent record in China, including a 4th in 2010.

There is an event in Indonesia this week, the Indonesian Masters. Els and Darren Clark travel for some pocket money. I thought winning the Open paid pretty well but I must be wrong if they have to play in events like this when other big events are on offer.

The Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow is a player favourite where the excellent course always sets up a great finish through the ‘Green Mile’. There have been a few changes for this years event but all in a accuracy rules here. Last year there was a 3 way playoff. Fowler, the winner, ranked 2nd in driving accuracy, 5th in greens, 2nd in birdies. Mcilroy ranked 1st in birdies, 2nd in driving distance and 5th in greens. D.A. Points ranked 6th in driving accuracy, 6th in pars made, 1st in greens and 6th in driving accuracy. Webb Simpson missed the playoff by a shot and ranked 7th in birdies and 11th in greens. The trend continues throughout the top 10 and in previous editions.

I think the four guys mentioned above should all be there or thereabouts come Sunday. Rory has a win and a 2nd here and is a very worthy favourite. His games sets up so well around here. Fowler is in good nick and defends this week. If he can keep the big numbers off the card he will be right in the mix as he always makes birdies. D.A. Points has always been a steady player but now he is holing putts and his work with a new coach has really transformed him. Webb Simpson has 6 top 3’s this year and looked back to near his best when losing in a playoff last time out at Harbour Town.

However, I am ignoring these four as there is no value in backing them, even Points at 50/1 looks tight in a quality field. My first pick is Russell Henley. 90/1 is very big about a very good player. He ranks 2nd to Rory in my ratings. 9th in total driving, 10th in birdies and 13th in putting should see him go close this week. The fact he ranks 9th in the field in greens in regulation and birdies combined is an added bonus

Sergio Garcia is the one I really want to be on this week but at 28/1 I just can’t get involved. His stats are a perfect fit but he is too temperamental to back but too talented to ignore. I am going to pass though.

Chris Kirk gets another go this week. He was solid last week but his normal strength, his putter, did not really fire. He lost strokes to the field every day with the blade apart from day 1. This is not the best fit for him but he is in good form and at 90/1 (100/1 with Betwin) is a bet.

Jimmy Walker at 66/1 is also a bet. He has a poor record at Quail Hollow, missing his last four cuts, but he is a different player now. He has 4 top 10’s this year and has made 20 cuts in a row, second only to Horschel. He finished 8th last week and ranks 11th in scoring and 9th in the all round rankings. 66/1 is fair.

Cameron Tringale is my final pick at 100/1. 10th in greens in regulation makes him fit the bill. He ranks 11th in birdies and greens combined.

Now, I realise that these players do not have much course form. Henley, a rookie, in fact has none but past years form about players who have improved as much in a season as these guys have in my view makes course form etc pretty irrelevant. It’s nice if it is there but not vital. Look at Jimmy Walker, hopefully without cursing him, the guy has missed his last four cuts at Quail Hollow but he has made 20 cuts in a row. Can you really read into the course form? I hope not!

Let’s turn the season around this week with these picks….

Volvo China Open

1pt each way Eduardo Mollinari @ 66/1
0.5 pts each way Johan Edfors @ 150/1

Wells Fargo Championship

1.5 pt each way Russell Henley @ 90/1
1 pt each way Chris Kirk @ 90/1
1 pt each way Jimmy Walker @ 66/1
1 pt each way Cameron Tringale @ 100/1

2013 running total = -99.55 pts. This week’s investment 12 points. This weeks P&L = -12 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.