UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 October 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC - HSBC Champions

Last Week

I finished last week’s preview by saying “I also hope I have not overrated the Asian Tour players!” Well, I did! Form players on that tour came up with very little last week. We lost a total of 3 points backing them in various specials. We lost a further 1.5 points on Rumford who finished 15th in the BMW Masters. In the CIMB we lost 1.5 points on Hoffman who had a very average week and another point on Huh.

Aphibarnrat single handedly made it a profitable week. Although he leads the Asian order of merit I would not put him in the category of ‘Asian Tour players’ as he is proven worldwide. If he had holed anything in the last 12 holes he could have won the CIMB. He just could not find the birdie he needed coming in and missed out on a playoff by a shot. He won us 8.63 points meaning we won 1.63 points on the week, moving us up to +4.4 points on the year.

The big disappointment of the week materialised from this quote in last week’s preview. “Charlie Hoffman is a player I have next to Ryan Moore, Moore is 35/1 and Hoffman is 50/1” and then go on to pick Hoffman instead of the eventual winner, Moore. So close but yet so far!

This Week

WGC - HSBC Champions

This week there is only one event to focus on, the World Golf Championship - HSBC Champions event from Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai, China.

There are two noticeable absentees, Woods and Woodland. Maybe the bottom of the alphabetical invite list didn’t print! I think Woods had issues with appearance fees last year when an HSBC spokesman said how disappointed he was with the world’s best golfers, that you can offer $7m and players still expect appearance fees. They have upped that to $8.5m this year and still have not enticed the best player in the world. Does he really need a financial guarantee in a no cut event? He was in China this week for a one round match against Rory and is playing in Turkey next week, but we won’t see him here. Woodland I assume is resting after a good week last week, where he lost in a playoff. Both I would have fancied here.

The reason I say I would have fancied them is they are long and so is this course. 7266 yards long with five par 3’s and five par 5s in its par of 72. Scoring goes deep, twice it has broken the 20 under par barrier (Howell and Kaymer). The players refer to this as a bombers course but it has proved an all around test with big slopes on the greens with many different levels. Short hitters have done well. To testify Molinari, McDowell and Moore have good records here. But, at the end of the day you have to get to -20 so the winner will have to rinse the par 5’s and make putts. Molinari had 100 putts when he won here. If you do that it doesn’t matter if you are long or short, but there is an advantage for the longer hitters.

This is a strong field and it is very hard to separate a lot of these. There are many with a chance if they improve for their first run after a break and there are a lot like Snedeker and Dufner who are first time out after a break. Snedeker has one top 30 in 7 stroke play WGC’s so lets discount him on that point and the fact he hasn’t played since the President’s Cup. He does to tend to go well fresh though. It is discussions like this you can have about every player between the 12/1 favourite Rory Mcilroy and next 25 players that take you to 55/1.

There are not many that don’t balance out when you consider the for and against arguments and then compare that to their price. There are only two players where I think the fors outweigh the againsts and they are Garcia and Matsuyama.

Garcia won here in 2008, the year before it became a WGC event, beating Oliver Wilson in a playoff. He didn’t play here in either 2010 or 2011 but he did finish 11th last week and before that finished 4th, 18th and 9th. In fact he has 24 top 25’s in his last 30 starts. Despite this consistency he has struggled to get over the line. His game has pretty much flip flopped since he won this 5 years ago. Back then he was perhaps the best ball striker on the planet, his total driving and greens in regulation stats certainly suggested this anyway. His putter was the thing that could hold him back. Now his long game stats are not as impressive but he putts great. This week he is back on bent grass and with a little more forgiveness from the tee it should set up well for him. I don’t think 25/1 is a huge price but I like his chances here.

Matsuyama, as I have said a number of times now, is just a very classy player. He is long and accurate and ranks 4th in ball striking and 1st in total driving this year. Therefore his putting stats are not flattered but we have seen him make big putts at big moments so that is not a concern for me. He ranked 1st in scoring average last year. One could put this down to a limited schedule but consider the courses he played on that schedule and one will realise that averaging 68.77 is unbelievable. He ranked 5th in par 3 performance last season, which is handy considering the 5 par 3’s. The best news is he is back out to a very backable price of 40/1. The only concern for me is his two over weekend in Malaysia last week, but when you realise that 25th place finish was his 17th top 25 in 18 starts as a professional, which includes 11 top 10’s, 3 wins and a strong showing in the President’s Cup, then I think we can forgive him!

I also like Bradley this week, despite the way he faded out last weekend but 25/1 did not excite me too much. Moore at 33/1 is in outrageously good form and finished 3rd here in 2009 on his only start. I’m going to leave him out again this week, and again I may regret it, but I just can’t see him following up. Horschel was another who I thought was well priced at 55/1 and closed out with a tidy 67 last week to finish 11th in the CIMB to continue a solid run of upward trending form but his ball striking just seems a little too inconstant to string four rounds together.

The one other bet I am going to have this week is on Gabriel Canizares who is playing in the 2nd stage of European Q School at Valle Romano. Gabby is Alessandro’s brother. He is a very good, experienced player. More importantly he is attached to Valle Romano and knows it inside out. The course is pretty open but the greens are the key. They are quick and have some extreme slopes in them. To know where to leave your ball is key to the course, especially in windy conditions you often find here. He won on the Gecko Tour last week, shooting -10 for two rounds at Marbella Golf and Country Club and won the Gecko Tour’s event at Valle Romano last year, shooting two rounds of -3 to win by 2, 6 clear of 3rd. He qualified in 16th at Ribagolfe in Lisbon, a tough tee to green course, this will suit him better and he can enjoy the comforts of home and scenery he knows better than anyone. 40/1 is big. (Only available with Skybet, or if you ask you bookie very nicely. Ask to speak to the golf trader and see if he will lay you the bet. A good firm will accommodate.)

WGC - HSBC Champions

1.5 points each way Sergio Garcia @ 25/1 (+9.38)

2 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 40/1 (-4 points)

Special Bet

1 pt each way Gabrielle Canizares @ 40/1 (Stage 2 European Qualifying School, Valle Romano) (-2 points)

2013 running total = +4.4 points. This week’s investment 9 points. This weeks P&L = +3.38 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.