UA-33754892-1 Archives for 27 March 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Shell Houston Open

(Already Advised)

Shell Houston Open

2 points each way Phil Mickelson @ 18/1 (each way 1/5 1-7 with Paddy Power) (-4)

Shell Houston Open - Day 2 Three Balls

2 points Chez Reavie to beat Steele and Huh @ 13/8 (+3.5)
2 points Jimmy Walker to beat Koepka and Mahan @ 11/8 (-2)

Shell Houston Open - Day 2 Matches

2 points Aaron Baddeley to beat MacKenzie @ 8/11 (Bet365) (-2)
2 points Dustin Johnson to beat Oosthuizen @ 4/5 (VC) (+1.6)
2 points Jonas Blixt to beat Kizzire @ 5/6 (VC) (-2)
2 points Jimmy Walker to beat Koepka @ 10/11 (VC) (-2)

2 points Charles Howell III to beat Gore @ 8/13 (VC) (+1.2)

This week's P&L = -5.7
This week’s investment = 18 points

This week's Outright P&L = -4
This weeks's Outright Investment = 4 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -1.7
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 14 points

Shell Houston Open

A fairly quick write up for the event this week as I am going to waffle a little, but the analysis has been done and there is nothing too exciting to report. Like so many events over the last two years on the PGA Tour the winner looks almost certain to come from the top 10 in the betting, the problem is not one really stands out as the one to beat.

I used to love the days when
Woods was in the field as a clear favourite forcing all the other prices out, giving us some cracking each way value. You could back two, three or even four against him and if one got placed it would still show clear profit, and occasionally you would get him beat and get well ahead of the game.

There are four or five players I could back this week and if
Woods was in the field, at his best, as a 2/1 or shorter favourite you could back these players each way against him. Instead, at the prices, you are forced to pick one, or at most two to take your chances with against the field.

People talk about the new generation of
Spieth, Day, Rory and perhaps Fowler becoming the dominant players in the game. They are to an extent but not one is close to Woods. Spieth ranks 157th in greens in regulation, always fights missing left and is not a good short putter. Rory has a distinctly average short game and is an inconsistent putter, when he is on he is a genius but when he isn't he hasn't got the short game to keep himself in the tournament. He also finds winning harder than you would expect, unless he is miles behind and charging or miles ahead and cruising. Fowler is shaping up well but doesn't have a great win percentage and can be erratic from the tee, but improving rapidly. Day looks the most rounded and complete and is perhaps the one who looks like he can separate himself a little from the rest. He can be wild from the tee but is long which compensates well enough and he is also an exceptional putter. His short game is average, but he holes out well enough to again compensate for some average chipping. The thing with Day is he isn't scared, he's always on full throttle and when he does make mistakes, he can still get it around. This makes him the best of the four and I wouldn't be surprised to see Fowler develop into the second best to Day.

This isn't to discount the others that are a little older.
Bubba Watson I think is still the physically the best player in the world, he just has a questionable attitude, but when he is happy he can and will beat anyone. He is a much better golfer than people give him credit for and once again leads the most important stat of them all, greens in regulation. Scott also has the physical ability to win any week, as does Garcia, but both are not exactly 'Woods like' in closing out tournaments, and that is probably Tiger's fault!

Stenson, Dustin, Rose, Reed, Schwartzel, Oosthuizen etc are also good players that get considered every week they play but are hard to keep betting at prices under 40/1. They are often good for a place and an occasional win, but are hard to predict and do not win as often as their prices suggest they should. They are also not that far clear of the 'rest'. When we back players under 40/1 the each way staking plan quickly stops working.

My outright betting strategy has always involved trying to find players that match up with these guys statistically without necessarily having achieved the results that their ability suggests they are capable of. This means we could back players at 50/1 or 66/1 or even 100/1 that really feel like they should be 25/1 or 33/1 chances. The problem is there haven't been many players in behind who match up statistically with the top group of players.
Kisner looked to be one but has gone off the boil. His strength was overall consistency but doesn't really have a weapon, like a Furyk. There are a few others that look like they could come through. Smiley Kauffman hits it miles and is a very good putter, Byeong-Hun An is another with tremendous ability. Reed has the attitude but there are not many secrets about him. One of the problems I think now is guys have a great life and don't have to win, they don't need to win every week. There are a bunch of fringe players, especially in the States, who look happy just being on Tour and picking up huge cheques. That's not a criticism, I would love to be one of them and I don't blame them for it. It just makes finding the next 'average to great' player a little more difficult.

We've had three 'average to great' players since I started tipping golfers. Two made it and we profited nicely out of it.
Kuchar and Webb Simpson. One didn't quite make it but got close before disappearing and that was Bo Van Pelt. Who?!

Actually, I will give myself
Spieth as well, we've taken prices of 100/1, 80/1 and 66/1 about him and got him placed before. Players we stuck with without breaking through to the next level were notably Chris Couch (injured) and John Sendnen. Couch did place at 100/1 and Senden won at 80/1, but even if they hadn't shown any returns, we were getting cracking value and I was happy to lose on underrated players knowing one day they just might perform to their potential.

We will endeavour to find the next one, but with no heroes, no legends, at the top we end up with cluttered markets that have become tough to bet. Further down there isn't as much desire to break through as they don't need to. I do think
Byeong-Hun An is worth sticking with for a while, he looks the real deal and is hungry. He is going off at nice prices and is as good as anyone. I would just like to see him play a little more. I also think Stenson may break into that big three or four players. But it has not been a great place to be punting for a little while.

Anyway, to this week. I like
Mickelson at 18/1, 20/1 in a couple of places.

Mickelson has the best course form. Top 3 - Mickelson, Garcia, Holmes.
Mickelson has the best season form. Top 3 - Mickelson, Fowler, Stenson.
Oosthuizen has the best predicted form. Top 3 - Oosthuizen, Stenson, Bello. (Mickelson 11th)
Mickelson has the best statistical form. Top 3 - Mickelson, Fowler, Garcia.
Fowler has the best vital stats for the course. Top 3 - Fowler, Mickelson, D. Johnson
Mickelson has the best overall chance. Top 3 - Mickelson, Stenson, Oosthuizen.

Fowler would be a lot closer overall if it were not for his very poor course form. That's a bit of a surprise as the course looks perfect for him. It is very lenient from the tee (Holmes defends here and ranked last in driving accuracy from those who made the cut last year) and rewards accurate approaches to small sections on greens. Getting to these small green sections is easier from long drives and shorter clubs in. Fowler ranks 5th in putting in this field (9th overall on Tour) which on greens that are gonna putt at 13 on the stimp is a good quality to own. Mickelson ranks 8th in putting in the field and 14th overall, but also 3rd in scrambling (4th overall) which will let him go at flags freely.

My concern with
Mickelson is he ranks 55th in this field in greens in regulation, 94th overall. But with lenience from the tee his approach play will be made easier. His win in 2011 here is also the best performance at the course in the last 5 years.

In my mind
Dustin appears to fit the profile perfectly. Smash it anywhere from the tee, accurate approaches and a good putter, but this year he ranks 176th in scrambling and 92nd in putting. His length will give him better angles than most into the greens but Fowler statistically should go better than Dustin, despite his course form.

Looking behind for value again nothing stands out.
Cejka may go well at 200/1+ but the course is far from ideal for him. He would have to play incredibly well to get in the mix, but has been playing well. Rafael Campos, who gets in from his top ten in Puerto Rico last week looks too big at 400/1+ but it's a big ask in a far more competitive event. Jimmy Walker should like it and 40/1 is fair.

But like I said, there is nothing overly exciting going on and
Mickelson looks to have the best chance in an event he loves, He has been playing great this year, should be primed with Augusta next week and has course form of 1-4-16-12-17 here over the last five years with a course scoring average almost half a shot better than the next best, relative to the field.

Shell Houston Open

2 points each way Phil Mickelson @ 18/1 (each way 1/5 1-7 with Paddy Power)

2016 Total P&L = -99.47 points
2016 Total Investment =  549.5 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -54.45 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 97.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -45.29 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 452 points