UA-33754892-1 Archives for 25 August 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

ISPS Handa Wales Open and Deutsche Bank Championship

Last Week:

Liberty National proved to be a fantastic host course. When you limit the rough around the greens and replace it with tight run offs then the players short game skills really have a chance to shine and this lead to one of the most interesting final rounds of the year. Adam Scott played 9 groups from the end. It is very, very rare for a player to come from that far back to win. Win may not be the best word. He was given it. So many players choked and buckled one would be forgiven for thinking it was a final day of a Major. It appeared nobody wanted to win before Scott accidentally did.

Scott replaces Mickelson as world number two, despite Mickelson winning over 80 more world ranking points this year. That’s the problem when you work it out by averages, it rewards the players who tee it up the least.

All of our selections played ok but none showed a return. Spieth was the last hope after Havret’s Sunday rewind. Two late doubles put pay to his chances so we lost the 10.4 points invested. We slip back to -120.51 points behind.

This Week:

Deutsche Bank Championship:

This should be an interesting week. The TPC Boston allows low scoring. It is a par 71 at 7216 yards but Webb Simpson’s total of -15 was the highest in the events history. It has finished as low as 22 under twice. The main two assets to posses here are an aggressive game plan and a hot putter.

I like, in order: Woods 7/1, Rose 20/1, Scott 12/1, Spieth 50/1, Bradley 40/1, Snedeker 45/1, Matt Jones 125/1, Haas 55/, Delaet 70/1 and Horschel 150/1.

Woods’ course form of 11-11-3 is not stand out for him and that combined with a very obvious back problem means he can’t be backed at 7/1. I would have been looking at 10/1+ for him to be considered. He is still far and away statistically superior to any other player out there but not for me.

Rose somehow almost won last week. He three putted the last from short range to miss out on a playoff. He left himself the type of putt he did well not to leave himself in the final round of the US Open. He is a very poor putter and with the scoring set to go deep there has to be better options. HIs course form is also off putting 59-mc-68-mc.

Scott is very similar to Rose, has the long game to get in the mix but struggles to hole enough putts to keep up with the scoring. 12/1 is short enough.

Spieth will be a pick for me again. 50/1 about a very in form rookie is a good price. I’d make him about 28/1 to 33/1. He is an aggressive player who isn’t scared of going for his shots. He lead proximity to the hole and was third in total driving last week at The Barclays. Two late doubles cost him a top 10 but he can get in the mix again here.

Bradley is another aggressive player. His main fault may be not knowing when to back down. He shot a course record (for a day!) 63 in the second round last week and will enjoy his home town support in Boston. 40/1 is a fair price.

Brandt Snedeker has been a little out of form of late. His poor last 4 weeks means he has slipped out to a backable price at 45/1. He makes birdies for fun and has course form of 27-32-5-3-6. He can make birdies for fun when he putts to his ability.

Matt Jones is again a huge price at 125/1. He continued his consistent play last week and as mentioned before, has really solid stats, ranking inside the top 50 in every major category. This easier test will suit him and he is worth a play again.

Graham Delaet is an unbelievable ball striker. Last week, hitting it long, he hit 100% of the fairways in two of the rounds, averaging 91% for the week. He ranks number 1 in total driving and 3rd in greens in regulation. 18th in distance from the tee and 29th in accuracy is something his countryman Moe Norman could have only dreamed of. He may have been more accurate but would never have had the distance to boot. He is due a win and the rest of his stats are pretty tight but a low scoring course is not one to back him on. Maybe next week.

ISPS Handa Wales Open

I like Bjorn 35/1, Bourdy 40/1, Magnus A Carlson 100/1, Simon Dyson 33/1, Gonzalez F Costano 25/1, Jimenez 22/1, Richard Mcevoy 200/1, Joel Sjoholm 125/1, Romain Wattel 50/1 and Chris Wood at 35/1.

Bjorn has great course form but his recent form makes 35/1 look very short. Celtic Manor does suit a good, tidy ball striker, especially if the wind gets up, but I can’t back Bjorn at that price.

Gregory Bourdy had another solid week last week in Scotland. He has course form of 21-10-39-2-14 and is in decent order of late. I think he is worth a play at 40/1.

Magnus A Carlson is a big price at 100/1 when you think he has finished 21-31-8-18 in the last 4 editions. However, his recent form has not shown enough to feel he is going to regain form for this. His 13th in Russia a few weeks ago is thing to cling on to and the price is not good enough to justify a straight gamble.

Simon Dyson looks to have sorted his equipment problems out to a certain extent and has been looking more like the player we know he is in his last four starts. He has finished 6-18-20 here the last 3 years and without being a huge price at 33/1 he is worth having onside.

Gonzo F Castano has form of 9-dnp-12-dnp-2. He is 22/1 which looking at his recent outings is too short, although he will embrace a stiff long game test.

Jimenez has a stellar record here, apart from the last two years. He is back in good form, as he showed when contending at Firestone and in The Open. I think 22/1 is a little short for my liking but fully expect to see him contend. I would rather wait and back him in Switzerland next week.

Joel Sjohlm is an interesting one. He has two 8th place finishes here the last two years which makes 125/1 look big. However there is again very little of late to give much hope for him putting four rounds together here. Maybe a round one leader play at 100/1 would be better advised, but I think I will leave him alone.

Romain Wattel fits the trend in my shortlist here. 15-8 here the last two years but no top 10’s since June. 50/1 looks a little short for a player not in great form.

The guy I do think has a big shout and is a good price is Chris Wood. 35/1 is very backable and has course form of 10-46-dnp-14. I think he will be very motivated by the start of Ryder Cup points this week and hugely boosted by a 7th at the WGC at Firestone, where he played alongside Woods. He should be full of belief and would be my bet of the week.

As we have selected quite a few players in this medium price range this week the staking plan has to be a little complicated to make sense. The problem is a 40/1 chance placing will not cover the rest if we stake it normally, therefore I am going to make some cross-double plays to make it more affordable and have it make more financial sense. If we can get one or more of those up it would be very nice, however if a player places by himself, or potentially all three in the same event, we are going to be left feeling a little hard done by not having the place singles. But, as I said, this is the best play when you are backing a few shortish ones on the same week.

Deutsche Bank Championship

0.5 pt win Jordan Spieth @ 50/1 (-0.5pts)

0.5 pt win Keegan Bradley @ 40/1 (-0.5pts)

0.5 pt win Brandt Snedeker @ 45/1 (-0.5pts)

0.75 pts each way Matt Jones @ 125/1 (-1.5pts)

ISPS Handa Wales Open

0.5 pt win Gregory Bourdy @ 40/1 (+20 points)

0.5 pt win Simon Dyson @ 33/1 (-0.5pts)

1 pt each way Chris Wood @ 35/1 (-2pts)

Special Bets

0.5 pt each way double Spieth @ 50/1 and Bourdy @ 40/1 (+37.13 points)

0.5 pt each way double Spieth @ 50/1 and Dyson @ 33/1 (-1pt)

0.5 pt each way double Spieth @ 50/1 and Wood @ 35/1 (-1pt)

0.5 pt each way double Bradley @ 40/1 and Bourdy @ 40/1 (-1pt)

0.5 pt each way double Bradley @ 40/1 and Dyson @ 33/1 (-1pt)

0.5 pt each way double Bradley @ 40/1 and Wood @ 35/1 (-1pt)

0.5 pt each way double Snedeker @ 45/1 and Bourdy @ 40/1 (-1pt)

0.5 pt each way double Snedeker @ 45/1 and Dyson @ 33/1 (-1pt)

0.5 pt each way double Snedeker @ 45/1 and Wood @ 35/1 (-1pt)

2013 running total = -120.51pts. This week’s investment 15 points. This weeks P&L = +43.63 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.