UA-33754892-1 Archives for 24 March 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Shell Houston Open and Trophee Hassan II

We upset the odds last week. In both events we must have been odds on to have a profitable week but two chokes of note proved costly. Harrington in Malaysia was leading a weather affected 54 hole tournament with 9 to play but after three bogies coming in finished in a tie for 6th. Brian Stuard had a very solid opening 65 holes at Bay Hill. The 175/1 chance was in 4th with 7 holes to play before throwing in a bogey, par, bogey, bogey, double bogey, par, par finish. This was after starting the tournament bogey, bogey, bogey too! He finished 16th. He picked up $93,000, we threw away our betting slips!

Again I am going to sit out of the ‘European’ event in Morocco. The market is all pretty tight and nothing really stands out. You would expect the two Mollinaris to go well but are short enough at 12/1 and 25/1. David Howell has been very steady making, I think, 25 of his last 26 cuts and does well in Africa, be it mainly in the South. Rhys Davies, Davis Horsey and Michael Hoey have won the previous three golden daggers. The only thing they have in common is they probably played the course when the event was a Challenge Tour venue. But all in it is a funny little event that no manufacturers go to, not even Titleist, who are massively keen to supply product at any event. I am going to sit out as nothing stands out.

The PGA Tour is in Texas this week for the Shell Houston Open. The last few years this has been seen as the warm up for Augusta, normally the week before but Valero insist the Texas Open (now played next, the week before The Masters) should not be played on Easter Sunday. Redstone CC try and get their course as similar as possible to Augusta. It is within 6 yards length wise at 7441 yards and has small undulating greens that are rolling at an anticipated 13 on the stimp. There are also shaven run off areas around the green so all in it is a good prep for the players. The par 5’s play tough but in general finding the small greens is not the challenge. Last year 71.77% of greens were found in regulation. The main challenge appears to be one putting and in turn having your irons dialled in is a must, much like Augusta. There should be the standard the Texas breeze throughout with the chances of a couple of showers or storms over the weekend.

Now first up is the guy I hated for most of yesterday and this morning but earns his way back into the staking plan again this week - Brian Stuard. I have to forgive him when you see he ranked 13th in greens hit last week and 10th in proximity to the hole. These are keys stats for this week. Add that to 10th for the season in putting, 11th in scoring and has made 8 out of 8 cuts. He also ranks an important 17th in scrambling. He is available at 125/1 which looks way to big in my view.

Second pick is Jordan Spieth. The 19 year old finished 7th at Tampa Bay to earn his exemption for this week. It also meant he earned enough to take out a Temporary Playing Membership meaning he can get unlimited invites for the rest of the season. This is a huge weight off his shoulders but is certainly no fluke. In 2010 he tied for 16th in the Byron Nelson and made 4 out of 6 cuts as an amateur in 2011-12, highlighted by a 21st and leading amateur honours at last years US Open. He turned pro in December and missed his first cut at the Farmers Insurance but a tie for 22nd at Pebble Beach, a 2nd place in Puerto Rico and his 7th at Innisbrook means he has made $521,893 in 4 starts. He also ranks 10th on the where, from two starts, he has a 7th and a 4th. His ability is backed up by his stats. He has not played the easy venues and he still ranks 18th in driving accuracy, 14th in total driving, 2nd in greens in regulation and 10th in scoring. 50/1 is not a huge price but in his current form, full of confidence, in his home State on a course he knows he must be worth an interest.

Last week I was close to backing Brant Snedeker at a shorter price in a more competitive line up, with a stronger favourite and without a run for a while. To be able to back him at 25/1 in this field is too good to turn down. This should play to his strengths. He does well at Augusta and as discussed this is not dissimilar. Obviously 76, 76 for a MC last week is not ideal after a return from injury but it can be partly forgiven as 8 shots were dropped on the 17th and 18th holes alone. He ranks 17th in driving accuracy, 1st in greens, 11th in putting, 1st in birdies, 5th in scoring, 3rd in scrambling and 1st in par breakers. Obviously the majority of these stats are pre injury but a return to anywhere near that form should see him put in a bold bid, and last seasons $10m man is not scared of winning now.

Russell Henley is a very solid player and has been steady the last few weeks as we have been backing him. He just has not had that run, or break, or flash of inspiration. His scrambling lets him down a bit and that is a slight worry around here but the rest of his stats are very tidy. 100/1 (125/1 with Skybet) is worth siding with again.

At first Chris Kirk looked a little tight at 50/1 but this sets up too well for him to be left out. 9th in scrambling, 6th in putting and 6th in scoring. This should be perfect. He finished 16th last week which was his 4th top 25 in 7 starts, with just 1 missed cut. More importantly he finished 2nd here in 2011 with four rounds in the 60’s. He did not play last year but the form is there as well as the ability. I expect him to go well.

Next on the list were Keegan Bradley (14/1), Scott Brown (100/1), Jimmy Walker (40/1), John Rollins (80/1), Cameron Tringale (66/1) and Kevin Stadler (100/1).

Shell Houston Open

1 pt each way Chris Kirk @ 50/1 (-2pts)
1.5 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 25/1 (-3pts)
0.5 pts each way Brian Stuard @ 125/1 (-1pt)
0.5 pts each way Russell Henley @ 100/1(-1pt)
0.75 pts each way Jordan Spieth @50/1 (-1.5pts)

2013 running total = -57.25 pts. This week’s investment 8.5 points. This weeks P&L = -8.5 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.