UA-33754892-1 Archives for 23 September 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Ryder Cup

The Ryder Cup - Sunday Singles (all tie no bet with Skybet)

There are some cracking games this Sunday, at Le Golf National, in the final day's singles.

This is a tough format to predict with so many factors coming into the equation. We have all built our biases up throughout the week too, which must be left behind somewhat. Remember '95 at Oakhill when Seve couldn't hit the golf course but still gave an impressive, near perfect, Lehman a run for his money?

So, we must remember that Mickelson can still play, that Fleetwood and Molinari haven't in two days of fourballs and foursomes become unbeatable in every format. Impressive as some have been, there have been more that have been less unimpressive. In fact, I would go as far as to say it is the worst quality of golf I have seen in a Ryder Cup for years, despite two of the strongest teams in history on display.

A lot of this seems to be because of the American's ignorance when it comes to adjusting their strategies to the course. In the preview we talked about how the conditions favoured the Euros. This remains true, especially when you see what happened to the Americans when the wind kick up. The fact is the American's are used to perfect. Perfect warm weather, little wind, perfect greens, wider courses where the rough and trees are not as penal as this. Yet, they're fighting all these things but continue to employ an overzealous approach. Their shot variety and control of their ball flight has been less than impressive. Their strengths of distance and better putting gone. But I have not seen one US team member try a more cautious approach. Have Molinari and Fleetwood been shooting lights out everyday? Not really, they just haven't made many mistakes. Certainly the middle two sessions so far, which were the windiest and coldest, the US made mistake after mistake and their attitude and desire vanished quickly.

But one must remember they still have their pride. They are a team of 'I won't join you for dinner I will just have some room service'. They will love this individual test tomorrow and I expect them to make this very close, perhaps going down to the last few matches. I still fancy Europe, but many of the pairings look to favour the US,
IF they adjust their strategy and attitudes. One final point, I think Furyk's pairings have been unbelievably poor. I don't know how this can happen. How does Bubba only play foursomes? And Mickelson for that matter? Fowler is one of their straightest drivers, he sat out today's foursomes. Anyway, the singles….

My Odds
my imp
ex v
my odds2
my imp2
ex v2

Rory Mcilroy



Justin Thomas



Paul Casey



Brooks Koepka



Justin Rose



Webb Simpson



Jon Rahm



Tiger Woods



Tommy Fleetwood



Tony Finau



Ian Poulter



Dustin Johnson



Thorbjorn Olesen



Jordan Spieth



Sergio Garcia



Rickie Fowler



Francesco Molinari



Phil Mickelson



Tyrrell Hatton



Patrick Reed



Henrik stenson



Bubba Watson



Alex Noren



Bryson Dechambeau



So, we are given some unpatriotic options and few more 'comfortable to place' bets.

The top match, Rory Vs Thomas looks very tight. I would not dare to call it, although I would say Thomas looks a more complete player than Rory. If Rory is on he will probably win with the conditions and crowd on his side but if he has an off day Thomas could post a large victory to inspire Team USA. Rory hits 55% of his fairways and doesn't have a competitive short game. An off day could be costly for Europe, but I expect him to be decent enough to make a game of it.

I fancy Casey in match 2. He has been sneakily good and underused. Team USA's wildcards have scored 1 point from a potential 7, Europe's have done rather better. There is some value in Casey too, but unfortunately not enough to bet. If Brooks is on he is almost untouchable. I expect a fairly epic, high quality encounter.

Game three is a European banker surely? Rose, the FedEx Champion and former (be it briefly) world number one with home advantage just needs to show up? The numbers also support Rose, he is most likely going to win. However, his price is too short and the value lies with the Players Champion. Webb looked good this afternoon with Bubba, a completely different player to Friday, and he is putting great. Like with all these games, if you shoot 2 or 3 under you are very hard to beat. I fancy Webb might do this and make Rose have to play an excellent round to win. At 2.6 he is the wrong price and therefore is a bet.

Rahm V Woods in game 4 is a tough one to call. Neither have been at their best. Rahm has looked edgy for the first time in his career. Woods has looked disinterested and stiff throughout. If Woods shows up I expect him to win. There is some value with Rahm, but Woods has had less than perfect partners this week, as usual at a Ryder Cup, and I expect him to bounce back, enjoy it more and get it done again in the singles.

Fleetwood is on a perfect golf course for him and has enjoyed a perfect week so far. As one would expect, a result of this his price is too short for his singles match. He would have loved a Tiger match up in the singles after duffing him up all week. Nobody will have wanted to play Tommy, but Finau has nothing to lose and has proved to be one of the most consistent players throughout the season. It is a big ask for Finau, but he can ask Tommy some questions at a decent price. 2.4 Finau is a bet.

This may be Poulter's last Ryder Cup match and he is up against it. If Dustin plays anywhere near his ability he wins. I think this is priced correctly.

Jordan Spieth has been arguably the best player for Team USA, probably a result of the added rest that was afforded due to a poor FedEx run. He loves the Ryder Cup and responds so well to the pressures. Olesen has sat out since a Friday morning disappointment. The reality was that Rory was the worse of the pair, not offering one birdie. I feel for Olesen and I fancy he will play well enough to challenge Jordan tomorrow. 2.8 is worth a go on this basis.

Garcia Vs Fowler is a great match up. Hard to pick the winner of this one. Garcia is a great match player and knows how to dig deep. Fowler certainly owns the better form. I fancy Garcia to pull off an important win here but I will not be betting the match.

Molinari V Mickelson is the ultimate of knee jerk reactions to how the week has gone for each player so far. Mickelson has been dreadful and Molinari perhaps the best of both teams. This, however, does not mean he should be a 1.36 chance to beat one of the best of all time. I fully expect Mickelson to come out a different player. His pairing with Dechambeau was idiotic. Bryson is one who wants certain yardages etc. Mickelson plays a completely different game and wants it rowdy, fun and not robotic. I think Mickelson may realise this is his last Ryder Cup match and come out with a barrage of birdies. Just think of it in percentages, does Molinari really win this match up 74% of the time? I think not. Mickelson is worth punt at 3.1.

Everyone wanted the Tyrrell Hatton Vs Patrick 'Captain America' Reed match up. It was hugely anticipated, the clash of two huge attitudes and outward egos. However, Reed has been awful and has crawled into his shell. The confidence has been sucked out of him from a poor 2nd half of the season and bad performances here. Hatton should win this. Reed may well step up if he sees a lot of red on the board, but if blue is dominating expect Hatton to put him away early. Evs Hatton is very fair.

I am not sure how good Stenson has been this week. He certainly holed out well today. He is certainly not at his best but nor is Bubba. The thing with Bubba is he gets inspired quickly and is a very underrated player. One good shot and he could be away. I certainly don't see Stenson as a 1.57 shot to beat Bubba, although Bubba is fighting the course and being away from The States too. I'm happy to take Bubba here at 2.4 and hope he keeps his chin up.

The final match could be hilarious if it comes down to meaning something. Noren and Dechambeau have possibly been the worst two players so far. I can't chose between them and nor can the books. I am not surprised to see both of these guys out last.

1 point Webb Simpson to beat Rose @ 2.6 (+2.6)
1 point Tony Finau to beat Fleetwood @ 2.4 (+2.4)
1.5 points Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Spieth @ 2.8 (+4.2)
1.5 points Phil Mickelson to beat Molinari @ 3.1 (-1.5)
1 point Tyrrell Hatton to beat Reed @ 2 (-1)
1 point Bubba Watson to beat Stenson @ 2.4 (-1)

The Ryder Cup - Saturday Afternoon Foursomes (all tie no bet with Skybet)

0.4 points Watson and Simpson to beat Garcia and Noren @ 2.2 (+0.88)
0.4 points Woods and Dechambeau to beat Molinari and Fleetwood @ 2.25 (-0.4)
0.4 points Spieth and Thomas to beat Rory and Poulter @ 2.1 (+0.84)

The Ryder Cup - Saturday Morning FourBalls (all tie no bet with Skybet)

07.25 - Casey and Hatton @ 2.4 Vs Dustin and Fowler @ 1.53

I am surprised at a few of the US pairings for tomorrow morning's fourballs. Furyk appears to think Bubba and Phil are more suited to foursomes than fourballs, rather strange. Difficult to know if Woods recovers sufficiently, he looked stiff and tired on Friday morning. However, the match I am going to make a play on is Casey and Hatton to beat Fowler and DJ.

Dustin's length is negated here and the greens aren't good enough for Fowler to hole a bunch of putts. We saw what a little wind did to team USA this afternoon and there is a breeze forecast again from the morning tomorrow, and some rather cool conditions. Casey and Hatton will be keen to get in amongst the European party and made a strong comeback to just get pipped this morning. I fancy them to put it to Dustin and Fowler who must have some negative vibes from today's foursomes to try and shake off. 2.4 about the Europeans makes appeal here. I would be 2.

0.5 points Tyrrell Hatton and Paul Casey to beat Dustin and Fowler @ 2.4 (+1.2)

The Ryder Cup - Friday Afternoon Foursomes (all tie no bet with Skybet)

12:48 (delayed) - Molinari and Fleetwood @ 2 Vs Spieth and Thomas @ 1.73

I would be the mirror of the prices above. Therefore the Euros, who look much better suited to this format, look the bet. Not much time for the rest as play was so slow this morning. They'll do well to get finished today. I do, unfortunately, see another 3-1 beating to the Euros in this session.

0.4 points Molinari and Fleetwood to beat Spieth and Thomas @ 2 (+0.4)

The Ryder Cup - Friday Morning Fourballs (all tie no bet with Skybet)

07:10 - Rose and Rahm @ 1.73 Vs Koepka and Finau @ 2.1

I think this is priced correctly, I would be 1.77 Euros and 2.06 USA. Koepka and Finau are maybe too similar for this format. I am surprised Koepka and Finau are out first too. Rose and Rahm look strong and I expect them to get Europe off to a winning start.

07:25 - Rory and Olesen @ 2.1 Vs Dustin and Rickie @ 1.73

I have this at 2.05 V 1.78. I do think they're two strong pairings but the experience of the US pair and the fact that they're both proven at this level gives them the edge. US to square it up after two games.

07:40 - Casey and Hatton @ 2.6 Vs Spieth and Thomas @ 1.5

The Euros are underrated here. Hatton and Casey are a formidable pairing in this format. Casey is mega consistent tee to green and Hatton is excellent with his wedges and has a killer short game. Thomas has played here before but the greens are mega subtle and tough to read. The American pair should make plenty of birdies but their putting, which is both of their strengths, may be nullified a little here. I am happy to take the Euros in game three. I would be 1.98 Casey and Hatton and 1.85 Spieth and Thomas.

07:55 - Molinari and Fleetwood @ 2 Vs Woods and Reed @ 1.8

I think the Euros are a bet here. I have them at 1.81 against the US at 2. Reed and Woods should make birdies but Reed has been flat of late and Woods has to be a little tired. Molinari and Fleetwood are solid and they both posses great records at this course. It sets up well for both of them.

1.5 points Casey and Hatton to beat Spieth and Thomas @ 2.6 (-1.5)

0.25 points Fleetwood and Molinari to beat Woods and Reed @ 2 (+0.25)

0.25 points Europe to win Day 1 Fourballs 3-1 @ 6.5 (-0.25)

The Ryder Cup

I can't split Europe and the USA. The simulations make USA tiny favourites. Because of this I am only looking at the outright market with tie no bet. The books bet Evens about Europe, 4/5 USA. I would be 10/11 each of two. The simulations make Europe 52% and USA 56%.

One therefore thinks that the value, although slight, lies with Europe.

Now lets take a few other things into account.

Teams and Tactics

For 16 of the points, namely the fourballs and foursomes, you don't need to play your 4 weakest players if you don't choose to. For Europe, on my numbers, that is Poulter, Noren, Olesen and Garcia. For the US that is Bryson, Mickelson, Reed and Bubba. Take these away and run the sims and Europe's chances are far improved. I do not truly understand the inclusion of Stenson. He hasn't been in form and is carrying an injury. I would have happily taken Cabrera-Bello instead. Anyway, this is irrelevant, these guys will still play their parts.

Players like
Poulter are hard to find. Ryder Cup experts. Poulter is playing his 6th Ryder Cup this week, he has only qualified for two! So, 'the postman" is rarely good enough to qualify but owns an impressive 12-4-2 record. When you look at Ryder Cup legends, or experts who own great records, they have one quality in common, and that's short game. Think Ray Floyd, Donald, Parnevik, Casper, Nelson, Ballesteros, Olazabal, etc. Short game is vital in all formats of the Ryder Cup and unlike a hot putter, good short games travel and rely less on luck. Even the best putters on Tour only gain over 1 stroke per round 30% of the time. Good short games are more consistent and the ability to save pars appear critical to be a successful match player. Hatton could therefore be sneaky good this week. Another point of note regarding Poulter, he has not won a point since 2012!

A lot is made of
Tiger and Phil's relatively poor records in the Ryder Cup. Don't be surprised if this is the case again in the fourballs and foursomes. They're intimidating to play with, their partners get nervous as they don't want to let their heroes down and therefore don't play to their best. I think their average set of results are less to do with them and more to do with their partners. Their singles records are just fine. But this does work as a negative against team USA.

Another thing that often seems to happen, and can easily be a separating factor between the teams, is a young rookie getting hot. Think
Reed, Colsaerts, Fowler etc. The reason why this is important is if a young player runs hot you can let them play every match. If Woods, Mickelson, an injured Stenson or Poulter get hot, they'll still probably sit out at least one session.

In the fourballs look to partnerships that make a lot of birdies and cover 'each type of hole' well. Think of one very unlikely, hugely successful partnership a few years ago.
Boo Weekley and JB Holmes. They were a great fit as Boo is mega consistent tee to green. Always ranking in the top 2 or 3 in greens in regulation each season and nearly always number one in total driving (accuracy and length combined). JB Holmes could hit it huge and make loads of birdies and eagles but blow out occasionally. So, what does this mean you ask? Well, it means two players that look relatively weak on paper can be devastating in the fourball format.

Boo hits first and will more often than not find the fairway allowing Holmes a free hit. If Holmes hits one in play the pairing would be at a sizeable advantage. Boo is a great par 4 player and a solid par 3 player, JB Holmes an excellent par 5 player. They had all their basses covered and could make loads of birdies.

You don't want two similar players playing in fourballs. Also, keep in mind that the average PGA Tour player on a 'normal hole' will make birdie 20% of the time, par 64% of the time and bogies 16% of the time. So in fourballs a par will be good enough to win a hole less than 3% of the time. You need to make birdies in the fourballs.

Foursomes are the complete opposite. Foursomes you want identical players who limit bogies. Good short games limit bogies. However, you can still have two players that don't make many bogies individually and have great short games but pair them together and the partnership won't work. Think of maybe
Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk from a few years back, or maybe Rory and Molinari now. They won't win. Rory, despite the hype, ranks 165th in driving accuracy. This doesn't matter too much to Rory as he is a bomber who is very strong from the rough. The problem is Molinari isn't great from the rough as he doesn't need to be. Rory hits just over 50% of fairways, you don't want Molinari playing from his tee shots, therefore you need more similar players paired together. Rory may fit better with Rahm, Molinari better with Fleetwood or Olesen.

The last thing to really consider is home advantage. This whole thing has changed a lot over the last few years due to the strength of the PGA Tour. More Europeans are based in the US full time (
Olesen is the only non PGA Tour member playing this week) and US players travel less and less. US players generally leave their country to play The Open, the HSBC in Shanghai and perhaps the CIMB in Malaysia. To try and decipher European mainland form for US players is very difficult. Asia has a very different climate and the grasses are completely different. The Open is on a links course.

However, with a few weighting changes and a trip back further in time than expected we can say an average US player plays roughly 0.4 shots worse than expected in Europe. Europeans playing the European Tour lose roughly 0.5 shots when playing in the US. Europeans playing in the US predominantly suffer no penalty when playing in the US. So, all in, this means over the last 12 Ryder Cups Europe have a 0.4 shot home advantage edge when playing in Europe compared to a 0.2 shot advantage to the US when played on US soil. 0.1 of a shot works out as about 1% in a generic match. So Europe in theory, in a generic match, would have a 54%-46% home advantage edge this week. The only other Ryder Cup played on the European mainland was Valderrama in 1997, where we snuck a win.

Home advantage is made far more significant with the fact the European Tour has played the French Open at Le Golf National from 1991-1998, 2000, and 2002 to present day. The 12 European players have 72 combined starts at Le Golf National, the US have a combined 3. It is hard to quantify that as an advantage, but it is certainly significant.

The Course

The Albatross Course at Le Golf National is not long at 7183 yards. I played it a few weeks ago and I was surprised how few drivers you need to hit. If you hit fairways it's a fairly easy course, miss them and it will beat you up quickly. The course is probably softer now, the air cooler, the wind stronger and they're playing matchplay so we may see a few more drivers, but don't be surprised to see fairly conservative strategies from the tee. This limits the effectiveness of
Finau, Bubba, Dustin, Brooks, Thomas, Rahm and Rory. It adds to the value of Tyrrell, Fleetwood, Molinari, Olesen and Simpson.

I have been fortunate to play TPC Sawgrass a number of times. Le Golf National is not dissimilar but Sawgrass has more trees that demand shot shaping, it is more intimidating from the tee. The greens in Paris are also slower, softer and flatter than Sawgrass. Where they are similar is they both reward accuracy over power. You gotta just plot your way round. The course, the set up, the weather will all definitely favour the Europeans.

Pete Dye, who designed Sawgrass, always teases you into trying to do more than you need to. To take a tighter line from a tee, or to maybe go at a flag cut near water. The Albatross is similar. You can go from hero to zero very quickly. Water is in play on 10 holes and fairways often tighter where drivers land. Many holes, the more conservative the play from the tee, the harder the second shot becomes. It is up to the player, the situation and the format to decide when to push and which shot to do it on. It is a thinking mans course, a great matchplay course.

15,16, 17 and 18 are known as the 'Loop of Doom' and offer a fantastic finish. 15 and 18 come with significant risk if the fairway is missed as water surrounds both greens. 16 will be a great par 3 with an unreal atmosphere. The one thing I am very interested to see if they do or not is on the very first hole. It is a fairly boring hole normally. A long iron for position to avoid the water that runs down the left and a mid to short iron into the green. There should be plenty of birdies here. I think there's a chance they move this tee up for at least one of the fourball sessions and make it drivable. There is a huge grandstand behind the tee and this would provide excellent entertainment and a huge decision right form the start of a match. I do hope they do it. You will see player one lay up and the second player go for it.


There is not much between these two teams. One could argue the American's have shown better recent form with a lot of European 'Tour Championship bankers' missing the final FedEx event. Garcia, Stenson, Noren, Poulter and to an extent Rahm have really underperformed through the second half of the season. Mickelson and Reed have been perhaps the worst of the Americans but on a world ranking basis the US are the best Ryder Cup team ever assembled.

I am not a huge fan of betting the Ryder Cup with all the unknown variables of pairings, momentum etc. I'm not even a fan of betting matchplay with its nuances. But, if the Europeans get the pairings right I think they may well be a bet. As I have said, the weather suits them, the course suits them, they have a home advantage edge, they have terrific and extensive course form between them, they have some great combinations for both foursomes and fourballs and many go into this rested relative to a US Team that have had a demanding schedule.

On the flip side the US are the better players, have more Majors and are in better form as a unit.

I think our picks are strong on paper. If they play to their previous Ryder Cup form we are looking at a 41-24-15 record. The US picks combining for a 31-37-10. I also think our rookies bring a lot to the table.
Rahm looks hard to beat. Fleetwood could be the star and won here in 2017. Noren won here this year. Tyrrell looks to have the perfect Ryder Cup profile and could definitely get up the American's noses with his uniquely outward showing of emotion, feelings and thoughts. I would love to see Tyrrell play Reed in the singles!!

I am told the European pairings for Friday morning are
Rose and Rahm, Rory and Olesen, Hatton and Poulter, Fleetwood and Casey with the possibility of Poulter and Casey being switched. This would make the combined 6/4 of Rose or Rahm to hit the opening tee shot worth a pop, or 11/4 on Rose, who is likely to be the first of the two.

Therefore, I don't think it is quite flip of a coin stuff, but it is not far off. All in I think Europe should be slight favourites and therefore should be backed at Evens in the 'Tie no bet' market. The last time Europe lost on home soil
Tiger Woods was 17 years old and watching on TV, that was 1993.

Ryder Cup - Outright

1 point Europe to win the Ryder Cup (Tie no bet) @ Evens (+1)

Ryder Cup - Specials

0.25 points Tyrrell Hatton to be Top European Rookie @ 13/2 (-0.25)
0.4 points Paul Casey to be top European Wildcard @ 3/1 (-0.4)

I'll post any bets for the matches here as soon as they are announced and will send to those subscribed to the 'specials' as the mass emails won't reach everyone in time.

Also, take a look at for The Ryder Cup Sweep.



This week's P&L = +7.47
This week’s investment = 13.45 points

This week's Outright P&L = +1
This weeks's Outright Investment = 1 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +6.47
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 12.45 points

2018 Total P&L =  -102.06 points

2018 Total Investment = 1851.94 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 881.39 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -71.88 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 971.94 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan.  Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.  

It is important to focus on bet size.  It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.  

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide.  So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection.  Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year.  The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account.  This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more.  Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones.  It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated.  The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested.  The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.