UA-33754892-1 Archives for 22 September 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and Tour Championship

As we have had a few busy weeks with big tournaments this week I am just going to give the picks.

Last week we made a 6.25 point profit on Billy Horschel when he placed in the first round leader market, a 2 point profit on Keegan Bradley to beat Nick Watney in a 72 hole match bet, a 2.2 point profit on Stricker to beat Matt Kuchar in their 1st round match bet, a 5 point loss on Woods to win the Tour Champs and a 2.5 point loss on the Challenge Tour outfights in Kazakhstan. All in a 2.95 point profit on the week, bringing us back to -12.87 points for the season.

This week we have a huge field in Scotland for the Dunhill Links and the finale, their Tour Championship, from the Dye Course at Sawgrass. I have played the course a number of times. You have to drive it well and if you do, a score is on, if you don’t, you can find trouble fairly easily. At least in the this event we know the weather and the draw won’t play too bigger factor, more the pressure of the situation. Scotland is a lot more about the draw, and your pro am partners. All in, two events not to play big in.

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

2 points each way Charl Schwartzel @ 25/1 (-4 points) - Schwartzel is a Major Champion who is in good form, who has two top 15’s in his last 4 starts in this event, who is clearly the best player on show by a fair way, who is surprisingly priced up in amongst the others. Kaymer is a shorter price. He has a win and a 2nd here, but that is a few years ago when he was good. Schwartzel is alongside Casey, Fisher, Dyson, Luiten, Sterne, Grace and Gallacher in the market. How? They are all nice players and all have fair records in this event, but Schwartzel is on another level to these guys. He would be my clear favourite at about 16/1, he isn’t, so lets try and take advantage.

1.25 points each way Brett Rumford @ 55/1 (-2.5 points) - He should be alongside Casey, Fisher, Dyson, Luiten, Sterne, Grace and Gallacher in the market but is twice the price. The early 66/1 has been taken but 55/1 is still generous for a guy who has a pair of top 20’s here and hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last 3 starts. He plays well on fast courses, especially links, and if the wind does blow, he has maybe the best short game around.

0.25 points each way Brandon Stone @ 250/1 (-0.5 points)- Despite some disappointing recent form we know he has talent and this is a format that may well suit. Two rounds at St. Andrews can reward his aggressive style.

0.5 points each way Fredrik Andersson Hed @ 100/1 (-1 point) - Finished 5th last year here and 4th last time out. Streaky, confidence type player who is tough to catch at the right time. Worth a punt at the price in a hope he is still hot. Tour Championship

0.5 points each way Hudson Swafford @ 80/1 (-1 point) - Comes from Florida, lives in Florida and needs a big week. Is 41st on the money list despite a poor year due to his two finishes of 14th and 7th in his last two starts. 35th in driving accuracy and 18th in greens is a nice combo here and despite the two favs looking hard to beat, there is some value in the 80/1 on offer for a player who can ride a confidence wave.

0.5 points each way Jason Gore @ 200/1 (-1 point) - The big, injury prone Gore has finished 43rd, MC, WD so far in the playoffs. He also has not returned a place all season. He is 56th in the standings and needs a huge week. The only sign that it may happen is in his stats. 5th in greens, 5th in putting, 2nd in birdies, 13th in scoring are all very impressive stats for a 200/1 chance. Lets hope he gets interested this week.

Special Bets

3 points Charl Schwartzel @ Evs to beat Martin Kaymer. 72 hole match bet. (-3 points)

2013 running total = -12.87 points. This week’s investment 13 points. This weeks P&L = -13 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.