UA-33754892-1 Archives for 22 October 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

HSBC Champions and Sanderson Farms

Sorry for a quiet few weeks, had a new introduction to the Kelly family so have been a little busy, but here are this week's picks.

HSBC Champions - Outright

The top of this market appears priced correctly. I would have Dustin at 8/1 and not 10/1 but he hasn't been quite at his best. Leishman looks overrated at 16/1 and I would see him fairer at 28/1. Stenson also looks a little under appreciated at 25/1, I would have him at 16/1.

In fact there are a number of established players like Stenson that look priced very fairly. We know if Stenson plays good (like The Wyndham a few weeks ago) then 25/1 in a field of 70 is a cracking price, but a little further down you have players like Scott, Noren and Schwartzel who look great bets. Ball strikers tend to go well here and they all tick that box more than sufficiently. They have all been a little out of form but when was the last time Scott went off at 50/1 in a Major? Therefore 50/1 about him here in a limited field with some noticeable absentees has to be backed. Likewise, Noren would not have to find much to make a mockery of his 66/1 price. Not many players have won more than him in the last 18 months. Schwartzel looked poor, like Scott, at the Presidents Cup, but 100/1 is still a very big price and worth chancing about a Major winner who strong form is Asia and China. My book would have Scott at 20/1, Schwartzel at 35/1 and Noren at 30/1.

Cantlay is almost the opposite to the above players. Relatively inexperienced at this level but carrying strong form into this. I see Cantlay as a 20/1 chance, 40/1 is very fair.

Hideto Tanihara caught everybody's eye earlier in the year. He has cooled off a bit. 200/1 is big, he is better than that.

2.5 points each way Patrick Cantlay @ 40/1 (-5)
2 points each way Adam Scott @ 50/1 (-4)
1.52 points each way Alex Noren @ 66/1 (-3.04)
1 point each way Charl Schwartzel @ 100/1 (-2)
0.5 points each way Hideto Tanihara @ 200/1 (-1)

HSBC Champions 72 Hole Matches

6 points Fleetwood to beat Fitzpatrick @ 5/6 (-6)

Sanderson Farms - Outright

A wide open event where the value looks to be with the players that have recently arrived on Tour. I would be betting 25/1 the field here and one of my joint favourites would be Aaron Wise, the mega impressive amateur who has not cooled off too much after joining the pro ranks. You can back him at 100/1, well worth chancing.

Andrew Putnam was on pretty much every leaderboard at every tournament he played in fir the first half of the season. I have him at 33/1 with 100/1 available. JJ Spaun, I have at 33/1 and plenty of 80/1 and some 100/1 available. Nate Lashley and Taylor Moore look fantastic value. I have them at 35/1 and 40/1 respectively and you can bet them at 125/1 and 200/1.

Following the value here is a punters only option, trying to predict a winner looks mighty tough!

1 point each way Aaron Wise @ 100/1 (-2)
1 point each way JJ Spain @ 100/1 (-2)
1 point each way Andrew Putnam @ 100/1 (-2)
0.8 points each way Nate Lashley @ 125/1 (-1.6)
0.5 points each way Taylor Moore @ 200/1 (-1)

This week's P&L = -29.64
This week’s investment = 29.64 points

This week's Outright P&L = -23.64
This weeks's Outright Investment = 23.64 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -6
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 6 points

2017 Total P&L = +15.57
2017 Total Investment =  1381.94 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -46.72
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 665.24 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +62.29
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 795.9 points

2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.