UA-33754892-1 Archives for 22 June 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW International Open and Quicken Loans National

More frustration last week. We did well to dodge our potential bets in the States, none of which would have returned despite going fairly well. In Ireland we looked well placed with Anders Hansen sitting one shot out of the places entering the final round at 55/1 and Wood within touching distance. Larrazabal had built up momentum with a good third round and another one on the final day would have seen him in the places. Larrazabal did not fire again, Hansen shot over par and slipped back and Wood played well but missed out on a place by a shot. 4 points invested, 4 points lost and we slip to -51.1 points for the year. It feels like we are going to get one soon though.

Unfortunately we won’t be getting our winner in the States this week. The market is pretty tight with doubts about what Tiger (16/1) will to bring to the table. If we looked at the bare figures like his course form etc he would be a very tight price and there would be opportunities with other players, but we know he is going to be rusty and this is the sort of course which will punish mistakes. It would be impossible to back him this week. It looks to have come to early and even he said, “If this event did not benefit my foundation, I would not be here.”

Along with him at the top of the market you have Day (14/1), Spieth (14/1) and Rose (14/1). Three good players who don’t win as often as they might and with very little each way value to offer. Day was top scrambler last week and any improvement in his long game would see him go close. Spieth was 6th here last year but his long game is not as good this year and he may get found out. Rose is in good form and will enjoy this set up but again, his long game is not as good as it normally is so far this season.

The problem for us is with no clear favourite there is very little value further down. The only two I would want to back are Keegan Bradley @ 25/1 and Brendon Todd @ 33/1. The problem is I would not want to be backing them at less than 35/1 and 40/1 respectively. If I had to pick one it would be Bradley, he is progressing week on week and looks like a player who is going to fire on all cylinders very soon. Elsewhere I think Ryan Palmer @ 50/1, Charles Howell III @ 66/1 and Charley Hoffman @ 66/1 are value, but I am not sure they are good enough to win this at the moment. Therefore, for the second week in a row I am not going to have a bet in the States. Very unlike me, but the market dictates the decision. Perhaps we may have an interest once they are off, especially if Tiger shoots a low one in round one.

The market in Germany has much more appeal. The return of Kaymer (8/1), Stenson (8/1) and Garcia (12/1) to Europe has lopsided it in our favour. It has given us the chance to sniff out some excellent value lower down and I am going in six handed.

Don’t get me wrong, if one of those three does not win this it would be a surprise. These three are heads and shoulders above the rest and could fill the tricast! They are in great form, and with the exception of Garcia, have great course and recent form. Garcia finished 29th on his only start here, but should count himself unlucky not to have won last week at the Travellers. However, I am hoping a couple of ours can trouble them at the top of the board.

I am going to back Felipe Aguilar @ 125/1 (150/1 with Stan James), Fabrizio Zanotti @ 80/1 (100/1 with Stan James) , Simon Dyson @ 80/1, Thongchai Jaidee @ 55/1 (66/1 with BET365), Anders Hansen @ 66/1 and last week’s winner and a guy we have backed a few times this year already, Mikko Ilonen @ 50/1 (60/1 with Stan James).

These guys have all been in decent form of late. Players like Dyson, Jaidee and Hansen have enjoyed plenty of experience playing alongside the best in the world, they won’t be intimidated by the big three here. They also have decent course and recent form. Others like Zanotti, Aguilar and Ilonen have all had recent success combined with results in this event. I think they can ride this confidence and put in a performance that could challenge on a course they like. I was also tempted by Ross Fisher @ 40/1, who loves it here and looks to be playing ok despite the results, but decided against it.

Quicken Loans National

No bets

BMW International Open

0.5 points each way Simon Dyson @ 80/1 (+3.33 points)
0.5 points each way Anders Hansen @ 66/1 (-1 point)
0.25 points each way Felipe Aguilar @ 125/1 (-0.5 points)
0.3 points each way Fabrizio Zanotti @ 80/1 (+30 points)
0.5 points each way Mikko Ilonen @ 50/1 (-1 point)
0.5 points each way Thongchai Jaidee @ 55/1 (+2.29 points)

2014 running total =  -51.1 points. This week’s investment 5.1 points. This weeks P&L = +33.12

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points