UA-33754892-1 Archives for 22 April 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Zurich Classic of New Orleans and Ballentines Championship

Last weeks 72 hole match bet accumulator had three winners and one loser. Olesen had a terrible run on the back 9 on Sunday which meant he narrowly failed to beat Kjelsden and in turn killed our bet. We lost 1 point.
This week we have two decent events. Let’s look at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans first. Donald (12/1) and Watson (14/1) head the betting. The bookies must be dying to get Donald in the book this week. TPC Louisiana suits long hitting ball strikers. He is not in either of those categories. We know he can putt his way into contention anywhere but his ball striking is restricting here. 12/1 is way too short for me.
14/1 is very tight about defending and Masters champion Bubba Watson. Of course this suits him down to the ground despite him claiming last year that it “does not fit my eye”. The reason I think the price is short is because it is hard to know how much golf he has done in the last few weeks with everything else going on. He seems the type of character who can go on unchanged and remain competitive but many players slump after their first Major win as the not used to all the other excess luggage that comes with it. I will wait and see with Bubba.
The guys I like are Ben Crane (66/1), Justin Rose (22/1) John Senden (50/1), Jason Dufner (25/1), Peter Hanson (40/1) and Keegan Bradley (20/1).
Bubba proved the profile last year, as did Webb Simpson who lost in a playoff. Long hitting helps, greens in regulation are a must. Jason Dufner hits a lot of greens and that is probably why he has finished in the top ten in his last three appearances here. He has also finished top 25 in his last 4 events. For me 25/1 is a little tight still. I can understand it as he has the recent form, the course form and the game but if he had not lead at The Masters I doubt he would be this short.
Justin Rose is playing some of his best golf for years. He has three top fives in his last five starts. He ranks 5th in greens hit and 3rd in scoring but his course form is poor. He finished 17th in 2005, missed two cuts and finished 43rd in 2010. He is a better player now but this form on this course makes 22/1 look tight.
Keegan Bradley is my first pick. His 27th at The Masters is his only finish in 10 starts this year outside the top 25 and he was debuting there. His stats are outstanding and for me he is the most likely winner. Take the 20/1.
Peter Hanson shot the lowest round of the final day in China. A 65 gave him a share of 14th. He is playing well and this course should be a good fit. My one concern is the fact he was in China last week. I know professional golfers are also professional globe trotters these days but surely it has to take a bit out of you. I would not put anyone off the 40/1 available but I am going to leave him out this week.
Instead let’s have a go on Senden and Crane. Senden is third in greens in regulation and third in ball striking. He can give a good account of himself at 50/1. Ben Crane is 36th in greens in reg, 14th in putting, 2nd in eagles and 10th in birdies. 66/1 is a good price.
The European Tour is in Korea this week for the Ballentines Championship. Westwood beat Jimenez to the title last year but does not defend this year. Adam Scott is favourite at 8/1 and is similar to Westwood in many ways. Scott does not win enough to back him win only, especially on these extreme greens. The guy I like is Alex Noren. He is a streaky player and showed some form with a 63 in China last week. Let’s catch him whilst he is heating up. 28/1 seems fair.
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
2 pts Keegan Bradley @ 20/1 1.5 pts each way John Senden @ 50/1 1 pt each way Ben Crane @ 66/1
Ballentines Championship
2 pts each way Alex Noren @ 28/1

2012 running total +41.13 points. This weeks investment 11 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf