UA-33754892-1 Archives for 21 October 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC HSBC Championship and Sanderson Farms Championship

Things are looking ugly for this week. Cameron Champ is a huge hitting rookie. He looks like a solid player, he has the type of game that can rip any course apart but when he is off he could be really off. He is the value, but maybe lacks the experience to see it through when this is his first chance to win in the big time. Maybe best watched. Hudson Swafford offers an opportunity further down at 18/1, he is a PGA Tour winner and a very capable player, the preference would be to back him to make a run over the weekend to try and win the Sanderson Farms. However, the price about Champ is just too big not to make a play on.

In the WGC HSBC in Shanghai, it really is a question if a very consistent player, Tony Finau, can close a big event. He had 11 top 10s, three 2nds, last season with no win. We haven’t seen much of him in this position. A strong showing in the Ryder Cup will help, but I would argue there’s a chance to take him on with the wind expected to blow on the last day. Who to take him on with though? The best opportunity looks by backing Reed, but this doesn’t excite me much at 13/2, despite there being some value to him.

Sanderson Farms - Outright in running after round 2

0.25 points Hudson Swafford @ 19 (-0.25)
0.4 points Cameron Champ @ 6 (+2.4)

WGC HSBC Championship - In running after round 1.

0.25 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 15 (-0.25)
0.25 points Patrick Reed @ 6 (-0.25)

WGC HSBC Championship

Not the longest course at 7261 yards but Sheshan International has always suited ball strikers. Wind is its ultimate protection as its one of the hardest courses to scramble on. It has very undulating greens but this is neutralised somewhat by greens running at 11 on the stimp. Basically we are looking for a greens in regulation guy who can deal with the wind.

It is no surprise to see Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose have excellent records here. Dustin is my pick to continue his great record at the course (1-5-32-2) and his recent form (3rd Tour Champs). He is better rested than most and as long as his personal life isn't taking too much of a toll, then he looks a very worthy favourite. I would be 11/2, 8/1 and bigger available.

To Win

0.4 points Dustin Johnson @ 9 (-0.4)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

0.4 points Tommy Fleetwood to beat Molinari @ 1.8 (+0.32)
0.5 points Dustin Johnson to beat Koepka @ 1.8 (-0.5)

Sanderson Farms

A long course (7440 yards), rain forecast and cool weather with moderate breezes, the Country Club of Jackson in Michigan looks a strong test, but Ryan Armour posted 19 under par when winning last year. Length and good putting look the key ingredients. There's plenty of rookies on display, I am going to take a shot on one who has more experience than most. First pick is Dylan Frittelli who has two European Tour wins. He second alternate for the HSBC but he is committed to playing here. 33/1 available about the talented South African, I would be 16/1.

Second pick is a player with more experience than most but is struggling to travel to the overseas events because of visa issues. I like Jhonattan Vegas at 60/1, I would be nearer 20/1.

To Win

0.25 points Dylan Frittelli @ 34 (-0.25)
0.25 points Jhonattan Vegas @ 61 (-0.25)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

no bets

This week's P&L = +0.57
This week’s investment = 2.95 points

This week's Outright P&L = +0.75
This weeks's Outright Investment = 2.05 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -0.18
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 0.9 points

2018 Total P&L =  -104.48 points

2018 Total Investment = 1871.19 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
-33.98 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 887.99 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -71.07 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 984.59 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan.  Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.  

It is important to focus on bet size.  It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.  

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide.  So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection.  Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year.  The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account.  This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more.  Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones.  It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated.  The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested.  The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.