UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 April 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Zurich Classic and Volvo China Open

Last week was not the most exciting but we did come out with a small profit so it wasn’t all bad. Louis Oosthuizen never had a chance of winning after a slow start but a back door second place got us paid. We made a 1 point profit and are now 12.4 points up for the year.

Lee Westwood did his normal ‘big fish in little pond’ thing. When he is in an event he doesn’t really care about in a relatively weak field he has a deadly strike rate. Put him in a big event which he wants to win, he finds it much harder to convert. Just check his record, loads of wins but it is tough to work out which would be classed as his biggest. I guess it would either be the Dubai World Championships or the ‘old’ World Matchplay at Wentworth. That’s not a return you would expect of a player with so much quality.

At Harbour Town Kuchar finally got it done. I think it is a little unfair the way he has been labeled as a choker the last few weeks. He puts himself in the mix so often that he is bound to slip up occasionally. The style in which he won the WGC Matchplay and The Players last year suggests closing big events is not a huge problem for him. He has more top 10’s than anyone on the PGA Tour so far this season and is surely going to be a factor in the big events this summer. He is the ultimate plodder. Does nothing exceptional but everything well.

On to this week and there is not a lot to get excited about for me. New Orleans has a very average line up for the PGA Tour. Evidence of this is the fact that Justin Rose is the 14/1 favourite. There really is not much going on. Last year Billy Horschel won and ranked 3rd in putting. He had no 3 putts, ranked 1st in conversions outside of 10 feet and was a perfect 49 from 49 from 5 feet and in. He also ranked 2nd in greens in regulation, 4th in proximity, 1st in par 4 scoring and 1st in par breakers. Not a surprise then that he finished 20 under the par.

It is definitely a week for golfers that can go low. The rough is down on last year by half an inch, the result of a difficult winter. Horschel missed 25 fairways last year so hitting them didn’t matter much then, and it matters even less now. Therefore we have a shoot out in a weak field, not the best for punting.

I am going to go with a team of two for this. Ryan Palmer and Will MacKenzie.

I also liked CH3 @ 50/1. He has a 2nd and a 13th here but with his putting going backwards it is hard to see him going low enough, although I have been waiting for a lenient test from the tee to back him.

I quite liked Chris Stroud @ 40/1 who has been very solid this year but he hits it pretty short and doesn’t really have a weapon that would see him brush others aside.

I like John Senden @ 50/1 who has won for us this year and had a great Masters. He has a solid record here but doesn’t take it deep that often, he is better on more testing courses.

Matt Every @ 33/1 has a lot of appeal, He finished 12th last week, has 7 top 15’s in 13 starts and won at Bay Hill. The real stand out stat is a rank of 1st in putting. I expect him to contend but 33/1 is just a little shorter than I would ideally like about a player who has a record of MC, MC, 32 here.

Kevin Stadler had a great Masters finishing 8th on debut. He is 40/1 here which is tempting but after a poor weekend last week I am going to leave him out, we normally get much fancier prices about him.

Russell Knox shares the course record with here with Ryan Palmer, which he shot in his only appearance here, finishing in a tie for 30th. He finished 9th last week and has been very solid of late. The Scotsman is definitely on an upward curve but is not long and doesn’t have big weapons. 40/1 is just a little short. Every at 33/1 would be more of a temptation, in actual fact the temptation is too great. When you compare Every’s price to others around him it starts to look quite fair. I don’t like having two players shorter than 50/1 in the staking plan, but, as we have two weak events, I am going to make an exception.

I am going to back Ryan Palmer @ 28/1. He has had a couple of chances this year and this looks to set up perfectly for him. 15th in driving distance, 15th in greens, 1st in eagles and 4th in birdies. He finished 4th here in 2012 and shares the course record of 64. 28/1 seems acceptable about a player who is reportedly back fit after a hip injury.

A few weeks ago Will MacKenzie finished 42nd after a run of 7,13,52,6,4. I suggested he may have reverted to his mean and his time of overachieving was over. We kept the trust for one more week and he finished 2nd. Last week at Harbour Town he finished 125th and I suggest we keep the faith again. He has 4 missed cuts here but 3 top 5’s in his last 5 starts counteracts that. His stats have all remained tight but it is the 12th in putting, 7th in eagles, 17th in birdies and 9th in scoring that are most encouraging. The layers keep underrating Willy Mack so I am happy to back him once again @ 60/1 (66/1 with Betfair Sportsbook) which seems too big to me.

In China they are playing Genzon Golf Club in Shenzhen. This is a new venue so there is no real course form to go on. The course is 7145 yards long and uses a rare Platinum green turf, which is a type of ‘grainless’ grass. I just have no real idea.

Stenson @ 15/2 is risky. He has been in and out this year but is definitely the best player here. Poulter, Dufner and Molinari have not been firing. Colsaerts and Larrazabal have both come back into a bit of form and, if I wasn’t so confused by the event, then they would be my idea of the best bets on offer. Colsaerts struggled last year with the putter but he is improving week on week. He looks decent value @ 25/1. Larrazabal, who got attacked by hornets last week, is buzzing about his new putter and excellent iron play. He thinks if he can drive it a little better than he can go close. Like Colsaerts, he has a strong record in China and 28/1 is fair.

I want to look a little further down as I need a price to play in this. Mikko Ilonen at 80/1 is maybe that guy. He has played a very light schedule this season since becoming a father. He has played just three times in the last 3 months. One of these starts was when finishing 150th last week in Malaysia last week. I will forgive him for this as I am hoping he needed the run out and dusted off the cobwebs somewhat. He has finished in the top 4 twice in his last 4 visits to China. I think he can go well at 80/1, which is a price only available because of his play last week. That’s the only involvement I want in this event.

Volvo China Open

0.5 points each way Mikko Ilonen @ 80/1

Zurich Classic of New Orleans

1 point each way Will MacKenzie @ 60/1
1.5 points each way Ryan Palmer @ 28/1
1.25 points each way Matt Every @ 33/1

2014 running total =  +12.4 points. This week’s investment 8.5 points. This weeks P&L =

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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