UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 July 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Omega European Masters and RBC Canadian Open

Well, that was some Open.  The whole week was a surreal epic that ebbed and flowed backwards and forwards, side to side.  Heroes rose and laid down their challenge. For a time it looked like Willett, Lawrie or Warren could keep the Claret Jug on British shores.  As we went through the weekend they laid down their swords for the international contingent to pick up and conquer.  For a time an Amateur looked like he could beat them all, until reality caught up.  Scott and Garcia timed their performances brilliantly, appearing briefly in their traditional Major cameo roles on Sunday afternoon before retreating.  

The lead players showed their class.  In my preview I discussed how St Andrews has a knack for producing classy champions.  For a player to contend this week they had to be a rounded, experienced and diverse.  They would have to be able to take it deep when conditions allowed as well as being able to grind out pars when the weather came to the Old Course’s defence.  

I also discussed how the "this is a bombers course” quote was incorrect.  It only has two par 5s and all players have wedges in everywhere.  I think the course suits accurate players and I think the final leaderboard reflects this.  Hard to argue that there is a better wedge player in the game than Zach Johnson.  Maybe Spieth or Striker, a few years ago, come close.

My only real moan about this Open was the 17th hole.  The new tee has ruined the hole.  Sure it has increased the scoring average but to watch player after player bail out whack it down the wrong fairway, semi lay it up somewhere near the front of the green and take their chances on an up and down became repetitive and boring.  It was a great hole from the old tee.  Every player hit it down the correct fairway knowing that a good drive would be rewarded.  Especially if they took an aggressive line down the right, tight to the out of bounds.  This would provide an angle with a mid to short iron where a player could attack the flag and make birdie; or hit in on the road, up against the wall or in the road hole bunker.  We didn’t see the best of the Road Hole this year.

Anyway, we pretty much lost it all. We went in mob handed with big price runners and although only our day one trixie returned anything I am not ashamed of the selections. Ryan Palmer was -7 entering the final round at 150/1. Na opened with 67 at 200/1. Matsuyama's day two 66 was perhaps the round of the week in the worst of the conditions. Walker was maybe the worst pick but finished -6. Todd shot -9 on the weekend after dropping 4 shots in his last 5 on day 1, a good showing from the 200/1 chance. Streb was -9 entering the final round, +3 for the last 8 cost him a place at 300/1. They all showed their potential, why they were value and why they were good bets. Just a shame none of them could complete the job.

I have to admit I did have a few quid on Zach Johnson. I backed him at 100/1 whilst the John Deere was in play. The price went soon after so I couldn't tip him up here. The player I regret not tipping was Jason Day. I liked his chances and I liked his price. He handled the wind and was fortunate to play just 3 holes in really poor conditions. He only made 3 bogies the whole week, two of which were in the mockery of a restart on Saturday morning. He was bogey free for his last 41 holes The place returns of a 33/1 chance are not going to change very much, but he could have covered some of our stakes. Now fit and well he is definitely one to keep an eye on going forward, as if we weren't already!

On to this week and I am just going to put the selections up. It has been and continues to be a busy week plus the markets are lop sided and nothing makes enormous appeal.

In Canada they are back at Glen Abbey were 10 of the 18 greens have different grass on them. Winds are forecast throughout but the course is short and scoring should still go deep. I like accurate players who can putt. Over recent editions at Glen Abbey (2000,2004,2008,2009,2013) players like Kuchar, Furyk, McGirt, Reavie, Wilson and Verplank have gone well. No power hitters there, but they are good tidy players who contend when the putter warms up.

In Switzerland young players tend to do well, generally ball strikers too. The greens appear to be a great equaliser. It is also a venue were players seem to be able to break bad runs of form. Players like Slattery, who eventually slipped back to 9th last year despite having no decent recent form prior.

I am simply looking at small stakes big value plays in both events. The top of the markets offer no value in both events due to the lack of depth. Guys like Garcia, Weisberger and Reed in Switzerland and Kuchar, Furyk and Donald in Canada who I like are unbackable the way they have been priced up this week.

Omega European Masters

1 point each way Maximilian Kieffer @ 40/1

0.75 points each way Kristoffer Broberg @ 80/1

0.25 points each way Jake Roos @ 300/1

0.25 points each way Sam Hutsby @ 750/1

0.25 points each way Jason Barnes @ 1000/1

RBC Canadian Open

1 point each way Steve Striker @ 66/1

0.75 points each way Retief Goosen @ 80/1

0.75 points each way Matt Jones @ 80/1

0.5 points each way John Huh @ 200/1

2015 running total =  -116.36 points. This week’s investment 12 points. This weeks P&L = -12 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.