UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 February 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Accenture World Matchplay, Mayakoba Classic, Telkom PGA

Wow, shameful. All 10 points invested last week were lost.  -86 points down for 2012.  I am determined not to hit triple figures so lets change the momentum and have a winning week.

First pick is Richard Sterne in the Telkom PGA in South Africa at 12/1.  Over the last few weeks he has shown some form which proves he has put a long term back injury behind him, at least for the short term.  Jbe Kruger won last week in India and appears to be the main threat.  Regular readers of these tips will know I have put Kruger up on many occasions and mentioned in last weeks preview that I thought he had a big chance.  However, we missed him.  To be honest I would not be surprised if he does not do much for the rest of the year now, but that is just a hunch.

Sterne is a great player.  He is a natural gambler who does not fear winning, as he proved when winning 3 times in 4 starts a couple of years ago when fit.  This course suits experienced players and he knows it as well as anyone. I think he has a great chance and 12/1 is more than fair.

Another event worth looking at is The Mayakoba Classic, a PGA Tour event played on a Greg Norman course in Mexico.  It is short, tight and very scoreable. I like John Huh at 35/1 and Harrison Frazar at 33/1. Huh has had a solid start to the year with a 12th in Phoenix and 6th in Farmers Insurance.  He had two poor final rounds in those events and may find this easier.  The 21 year old is 9th in driving accuracy, 13th in total driving and 14th in scoring average. He can have a big week.

Frazar looks to be a fair price at 33/1.  I am going to have a small interest on him as he is solid and offers some value but his 55% of fairways hit is an obvious concern on this course.

Now to the main event. The WGC Accenture Matchplay. I read there are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 different ways this event could play out but I am prepared to give it a go anyway!

I like Bradley, Crane, Stanley, Mcilroy, Snedeker, Watson and Stricker.  Dove Mountain at 7791 yards long and is the longest course played on the US Tour. Short hitters have a good record here though and form suggests good putters and scramblers have the edge. Donald is the best putter and scrambler in the world but seemed out of sorts last week.  He made 7 bogies in a row in the final round.  I know he missed cut at Riviera last year before winning this but I can't be with him again.  To me Rory is the most likely winner at 12/1. He is consistent and courageous.  This should be ideal for him but being in the Player bracket is not good.  Anders Hansen, Donald, Garcia, Schwartzel and Watney are potential opponents.  Makes 12/1 seem a little short.

Ben Crane is playing some solid stuff and is ranked number one in putting. 66/1 is fair but this is maybe too long for him and I am not sure he has enough flair or intimidation factor to get to the final four.  Kyle Stanley has the weapons to go well here but perhaps it may be a little tough to win here on debut.  Steve Stricker is short and wild.  The rest of his game is unbelievable but I am not too sure you can drive it bad for six rounds and expect to keep winning games.

Keegan Bradley has again been impressive. He lost in a playoff last week and has been in the top 25 in each of his 5 starts this year. He is long, and when he is on incredibly straight.  He seems to have a taste for the big occasion and appears fearless. When he doesn't have the taste he just spits it out!!  40/1 is an ok price.

I also like Snedeker for this. 66/1 is big for a player with form of 8, 1, 50, 17 this season.  He is 2nd in scoring average and 11th in birdies.  He may prove hard to beat.

I also like Bubba Watson. His game is perfect for the desert and this venue. He is the longest on tour and hits the second most greens. If he finds something with the putter he can put a very decent run in at 35/1. He certainly has the intimidation factor sometimes needed in matchplay. 

WGC Accenture Matchplay Championship 

1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 40/1
1 pt each way Brandt Snedeker @ 66/1
1pt each way Bubba Watson @ 33/1

Mayakoba Championship

1.5 pts each way John Huh @ 35/1
1 pt each way Harrison Frazar @ 33/1

Telkom PGA

2 pts win Richard Sterne @ 12/1

2012 running total -86 points. This weeks investment 14 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.