UA-33754892-1 Archives for 18 September 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Tour Championship and Porsche European Open

Tour Championship

East Lake tests every part of a players game. You don't get away with much. The rough is up this year at 2.5 inches and with rain forecast will be penal. The greens will remain firm as East Lake have the luxury of SubAir. The course may play a little longer with the rain but emphasis will remain on finding fairways to hold the greens and then employ a tidy short game and steady putting. To emphasis the importance of finding fairways, East Lake last year yielded one of the easiest proximities to the hole from the fairway and one of the hardest from the rough. In fact the approaches from the rough averaged over twice as far away as approaches from the fairway.

Last year Spieth won, he ranked 7th in fairways hit, 9th in greens, 4th in proximity but really did the damage on and around the greens leading strokes gained putting, average distance of putts made and scrambling.

I like Jason Day for this. He has gone well at East Lake before and has a scoring average of 68.88 over his last 16 rounds. The concern, of course, is he has only found half the fairways this year on Tour. But he has a good short game and is the best putter this season. Another concern is his withdraw from the BMW with a bad back, but I am sure he has recovered fully from this now.

At the top of my ratings it is all the usually suspects with very few surprises. Overall I have Day (10/1) just ahead of Dustin (9/2), Rory (6/1), Casey (16/1), Scott (10/1) and Spieth (8/1). Day looks the only value amongst them, even with the question marks against his health and driving ability, I would rate his chances as good as Dustin's if not better, and ahead of the others.

Elsewhere we need to hunt a bit further down to take a chance on two players that fit the profile well enough to be considered.

I think we take a chance on Matt Kuchar, who strangely, despite having played this course more than any other player here (he went to College close by) has only managed two top 10s in six starts in the Tour Champs. But this sets up well for him. He can have a good week and rival the top guys at 33/1.

The other is Ryan Moore who has had a cracking second half to the season. He looked tired in his 7th straight start at Crooked Stick, and the course really did not suit, he finished 64th. This sets up well for him and with a weeks rest he could emulate his last start here, when in 2012 he finished 3rd. He's a 40/1 chance.

Tour Championships - Outright

4 points win Jason Day @ 10/1 (-4)
1 point each way Matt Kuchar @ 33/1 (-2)
1 point each way Ryan Moore @ 40/1 (+9)

Porsche European Open

A new venue and not much standing out.

I am going to have a little play on Bernd Wiesberger @ 16/1. He finished well in the KLM and what one can find out about the Beckenbauer course at Bad Griesbach, looks like it should fit pretty well.

I am also going to support Chris Paisley @ 125/1, 150/1 in a couple of places. The weight of keeping his card was lifted last week, he is a good player and obviously playing well, 125/1 looks too big.

Porsche European Open - Outright

1.5 points each way Bernd Wiesberger @ 16/1 (+4.5)
0.75 points each way Chris Paisley @ 125/1 (150/1 in places) (-1.5)

This week's P&L = +6
This week’s investment = 12.5 points

This week's Outright P&L = +6
This weeks's Outright Investment = 12.5 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L =
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 0 points

2016 Total P&L = -88.04 points

2016 Total Investment =  1138.9 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -8.75 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 305.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -79.09 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 838.4 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.