UA-33754892-1 Archives for 18 January 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Qatar Masters and Humana Challenge

The Qatar Masters starts early in the morning on Wednesday. Doha Golf Club, even at 7400 yards does not play overly long, unless the wind blows, and the wind can blow here. The course is very exposed and offers a very different test to the other two venues that make up the Desert Swing. The rough is fairly lenient and the greens very grainy, but still expected to roll at 11’6 to 12’ on the stimp. That can be a concern if it really blows, but in general the course plays more like a links course and the players with course form reflect this by having good links form elsewhere. There are quite a few doglegs which can be taken on, so length offers a decent advantage. The final consideration is the par threes. All play very difficult. One would have to think a ball striker, who does not have to be an overly accurate driver of the golf ball, but a solid iron player who is a good strategist and wind player should go well.

I like Anthony Wall. He has finished 28-25-6-37 here the last four years. In his first start since October he finished 12th last week. Wall has always, since his amateur days, been renowned as a wonderful ball striker and goes well in the wind. The reason not to back him is he has only won once on Tour in 17 years and that was the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa in 2000. However, he is a very consistent player and is fully fit for the first time since the start of 2013. He fits the profile nicely and is available to back at 150/1.

Andrew Johnston won the Challenge Tour last year and is another great ball striker. He also has form in the wind, winning the Scottish Challenge last year as well as a very windy second stage of Tour School at Valle Romano in Spain. He finished 3rd in the Alfred Dunhill in December and was solid, if a little unspectacular last week with rounds of 73-68-70-70 to finish 45th on -7. This should suit him better than last week and he can go well at a big price, also 150/1.

I was tempted to back Oliver Fisher at 125/1, who has been showing some better, more consistent form of late, but this seems to be due to a hot short game and putter. Maybe this will not be ideal for him so he is left out. Nearer the top of the market I think Rose at 8/1 has a great chance after a low weekend in Abu Dhabi, Tyrrell Hatton should appreciate this test and the combination of ranking 10th in greens in regulation and 1st in scrambling looks ideal to see him go close on a tough track but 45/1 was smaller than I wanted. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Thomas Pieters back up a big week last week and Ross Fisher to contend as he is putting better than he ever has.

The Humana Challenge is always a birdie fest in perfect conditions. There aren’t too many secrets, a hot putter and lots of birdies are the order of the day. Too be honest, I haven’t found too many appealing betting opportunities in this event. The only play I am going to make is a speculative wager on Webb Simpson at 35/1. He has poor tournament form here but he has won four times, take out the US Open and his wins are all at venues where scoring goes deep. The two stats that make him look dangerous for this are the combination of 12th in greens and 8th in putting. That helps him rank 3rd in scoring. If the short putter continues to work, as it did when he lead after rounds one and two last week it would be no surprise to see him in with a chance on Sunday.

Qatar Masters

0.5 points each way Anthony Wall @ 150/1 (-1 point)
0.5 points each way Andrew Johnston @ 150/1 (-1 point)

Humana Challenge

0.75 points each way Webb Simpson @ 35/1 (-1.5 points)

2015 running total =  -16.49 points. This week’s investment 3.5 points. This weeks P&L = -3.5 points

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.