UA-33754892-1 Archives for 17 February 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Mexico Championship and Puerto Rico Open

Puerto Rico Open - In running after day 1

0.5 units Roberto Castro @ 25/1 (-0.5)

WGC Mexico Championship

First of all, hard luck if you have backed Casey and Thomas the last two weeks. Bitter pills to swallow. Casey, although not doing much wrong, one anticipated and expected it. With Thomas, I have to admit, I was counting my money with a 4 shot lead and 18 holes to go. For an exceptional putter I have no explanation as to what happened on the greens on the back 9. What I can say, it was slow motion torture. JB Holmes we can blame for both beating JT and for the torture being so slow!

Anyway, on to this week, and, as with all WGC events, we have a stellar field to pick from. Rose, Day, Scott, Si Woo, Snedeker and Hadwin the notables missing.

Club de Golf Chapultepec is a 7300 yard par 71. It's at ≈8000 feet making it play ≈9% shorter. A player just has to plot their way round. Accuracy is preferred over length on this treelined layout, but many will nudge irons often too. The course offers (often bumpy) poa-bentgrass greens, like Riviera last week. The ball looks to bounce strangely on these specific greens and controlling spin is often difficult. The main protection to the course is its small, undulating greens. There will be plenty of missed putts, like last week, when poa-bentgrass greens get up to 11.5 on the stump and have huge slopes.

In my view good iron play is the key here. I like the phrase 'hills with thrills'. Because of the slopes you will see approaches gather and feed towards the hole if you are accurate. If you are not, well, then you may be left with impossible shots. So accuracy in ones approach work is key. The weather looks fine.

Rickie Fowler offers the only real value in the win market. He is 20/1, I would be 14/1. He is a very good driver of the ball and a great putter. However, his irons and short game are poor. This is a bad combination for this course. Perhaps this is why his form on the course reads 16-37. I will leave this market alone and focus more on it in running, when there may be better opportunities.

In the top markets I am going to focus on two players. I did consider Fowler for a top 5 too. I also thought Molinari and Imahara looked interesting in the top 10 and 20 markets but Molinari is coming off a 7 week break and has course form of 20-25, although the course looks a very suitable and Imahara has achieved little outside of Japan. In the top 20 I thought Noren was big at 10/3, but he is running cold (like many of the Euro Ryder Cuppers) and didn't go well here even when he was running hot. Alex Bjork is a good player and in his only WGC to date he finished 28th in China. 7/1 is big but his game is built more around scrambling than hitting it close often. There were a couple of others at big prices, but I was dreaming a little to expect big weeks from them for no obvious reason, apart from being here.

So, the two I like, two Englishmen, Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood.

Let's start with Fleetwood. He has started this season in a rather subdued manor. I am not sure if he has finally updated his equipment, but it would explain it a little. I like him here, the course is a great fit and he finished 2nd here in 2017 and 14th last year. He got off to a very slow start last year, missing a lot of short ones. He backdoored the 14th by making more birdies and eagles than anyone else for the week. The course suits. He is 20th in SG Approach, 9th in SG Tee to Green and his poor putting is negated a little. 8/1 a top 5, I would be 9/2. 7/2 a top 10, I would be 9/4. 7/5 a top 20, I would be 10/11.

Casey, I have argued enough to bore you all to death regarding his consistency, and although he let us down on a big bet last week with a dreadful Sunday, he is worth supporting again. He putted badly last week to finish 25th (1 shot out of a top 20), but he led the field in SG tee to green. Before that he finished 2nd at Pebble, before that 2nd in Singapore. 3/1 a top 10, I would be 9/4. 7/5 a top 20, I would be 10/11.

To Win

no bet

Top 5

0.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 8/1 (-0.75)

Top 10

0.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 7/2 (-0.75)
0.75 units Paul Casey @ 3/1 (+2.25)

Top 20

1.5 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 7/5 (-0.35)
1.5 units Paul Casey @ 7/5 (+2.1)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

4.25 units Tony Finau to beat Bubba Watson @ 8/11 (+3.09)
1.75 units Dustin Johnson to beat Justin Thomas @ 5/6 (+1.46)

Puerto Rico Open

Coco Beach G&C is a 7569 yard par 72. There is little rough and is wide to allow for the coastal winds that often blow, and appears to be the courses only defence. The greens are slow, seadwarf paspalum which is the same as they putt at Mayakoba. Minus 7 played off in 2015 and -20 won last year, so one can see the difference if the wind does pick up. Experienced veterans go well in this event.

How I got to my final conclusion here is different to normal. I started off looking at how weak and vulnerable the favourites are, so I studied for a couple of solid outsiders, then I realised how weak the field was and the favourites became appealing!

Daniel Berger is the favourite at 14/1. Instantly opposable when thinking he is on debut here and has form of 12-mc-mc before two weeks off. There is also that element of 'isn't he good, where has he been?'. A deeper look sees he suffered a wrist injury late last year.

In fact, this time last year he was finishing 14th in the WGC Mexico! He also finished 6th at the US Open, 12th at the USPGA and more recently, post come back, 15th at the Northern Trust and 12th in the Desert Classic. This is not bad, compared to the rest of the line up, this is excellent!

For a field that lacks depth and quality, he could be it. The sim makes him 9/1.

I went through dozens of players for the top markets. It is so hard to make a decent argument for any of them. I liked G-Mac briefly in the top 5 market, as he won on similar greens at Mayakoba, but that's a short course and this is long. If the wind blows he may have a chance, but one can't have confidence about a player that looks a fair way past his best.

Lingmerth was another, 10/1 a top 10 and 4/1 a top 20 looks big about a player who won Memorial and had a decent shout for a Ryder Cup spot. But, there were decent reasons for this. His 25th on the last week his best bit of form for a long time.

The only other I think is worth a chance is Juan Sebastian Munoz. You can take 11/4 about a top 20, I would be 7/4. I have followed him since I met him at the Ping factory in Phoenix, Arizona a few years ago. He is an impressive ball striker, a hard worker and a good guy. He finished 10th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 13th in the in Columbia two weeks ago. His putting stats are poor but these are different greens to most weeks, he could get in the top 20 in this line up.

Actually, I will throw one more in for the top 20 market. Not a huge value play but a relatively confident one. Nick Lashley at 5/2, I would be 2/1. 21st in putting and 26th in SG Approach is a strong combo. His weakness is with the driver which doesn't matter so much here. 12th in the Desert Classic, 20th at Sanderson Farms and 17th at the Safeway Open is some of the best form on offer. 3 from 6 top 20s this season against much stronger line ups makes it look a sensible selection.

To Win

0.5 units Daniel Berger @ 14/1 (-0.5)

Top 5

1.25 units Daniel Berger @ 7/2 (+4.38)

Top 10

2 units Daniel Berger @ 7/4 (+3.5)

Top 20

3 units Daniel Berger @ 4/5 (+2.4)
1.25 units Juan Sebastian Munoz @ 11/4 (-1.25)
0.75 units Nate Lashley @ 5/2 (+1.88)

This week's P&L = +16.96
This week’s investment = 20.5 units

This week's Outright P&L = +12.91
This weeks's Outright Investment = 14 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +4.05
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 6.5 units

2019 Total P&L = +31.04 units

2019 Total Investment = 162.25 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +25.95 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 104.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +5.09 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 60 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.