UA-33754892-1 Archives for 17 August 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Barclays and Czech Masters

As the tips are out pretty late this week I will be brief.

Sergio Garcia looks like a must bet for The Barclays. Last time he played at Ridgewood in 2008 he lost in a playoff. He has three 2nd place finishes in his last five starts. There should be a price on him finishing second! But the Spaniard is playing as good as anyone right now. He ranks 4th in greens, 4th in scrambling, 1st in scoring, 5th in birdies and 4th in bogey avoidance. He ranks comfortably first in my course suitability rank, marginally second to Scott in my overall rank and third in season form. I have him at 16/1 and you can back him at 20/1. He is my main bet this week, despite his slide in the putting stats, but I think this is a result of his green in regulation gain.

Elsewhere I obviously rate Scott’s chances as always, and Rory. But there is little value in the 14/1 and 9/2 available. Bubba could show up on a course that doesn’t really suit as the par 5s are not really that on. I really like Kuchar, who won here in 2010 but with question marks over his back and a price that is tight enough he is left alone. Rose is underpriced at 20/1. Ryan Moore is fairly priced at 66/1 a long with DeLaet at 60/1 and Bradley at 50/1 but I just can’t get that excited about them in a quality field.

My other two bets in the States this week are Graeme McDowell and Kevin Na. This sets up well for guys that keep it in play and thrive around the green. G-Mac ranks first in putting and 21st in scrambling alongside a rank of 15th in driving accuracy and 6th in scoring. Statistically he is almost identical to Kuchar in 2010 and can definitely get involved at 50/1. Na again represents outstanding value at 125/1. 34th in driving accuracy, 30th in putting, 2nd in scrambling, 13th in scoring and 2nd in bogey avoidance. Even if you look at the one stat, 13th in adjusted scoring, that should make him less than 80/1 and he has decent form this season. We have to back him again.

In the Czech Masters I am going all in with one pick at a decent price. Estanisiao Goya. The Argentinian only has mediocre form of late but all of it steady 38-33-35-72-34. The 72 was in the WGC Bridgestone. Often a taster of what could be and a huge motivator to a player. His form here is 9-9-9. At 100/1 he is worth having onside. 125/1 with Stan James.

The Barclays

3 points each way Sergio Garcia @ 20/1
1.25 points each way Graeme McDowell @ 50/1
0.75 points each way Kevin Na @ 125/1

Czech Masters

0.5 points each way
Estanisiao Goya @ 100/1 (125/1 with Stan James)

2014 running total =  -23.16 points. This week’s investment 11 points. This weeks P&L = -11 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.