UA-33754892-1 Archives for 15 September 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW PGA Championship

Wentworth is an easy golf course; if you can drive the ball in the fairway.

I grew up here and know the course as well as anyone. If you miss fairways it can beat you up quickly, if you hit them you can shoot a score. It is very fair.

Many think this is a second shot course and in some ways it is. But if you are not on the fairway the rough will not allow you to control your approaches. The woods are fairly dense and if one hits one really wide, they will be lucky to escape without dropping at least one. Unlike many of the up and down, backwards and forwards, all holes side by side, parkland courses we see in The States week in, week out; Wentworth has out of bounds which is very much in-play on many holes. Even holes that aren’t known for their out of bounds, like the 497 yard par 4, 15
th hole, which offers only 55 yards of room from the OB right to OB left in the landing area.

The importance of hitting fairways has been emphasised yet further with the latest round of course changes. The SubAir system means the greens can play firm no matter what the weather. Around the greens the grass is still new and quite weak. The ball goes right to the bottom of it meaning strike is never guaranteed and controlling the ball is tricky. Add to this anywhere you miss a green, nine times out of ten, where you want to pitch it is on a down slope meaning you are often forced into playing a more difficult shot than one would wish.

There are three factors that will encourage lesser drivers of the ball. 1, They rarely set the course up from the very back all the way round. This is for speed of play purposes as well as keeping the course fair in certain winds and weather conditions. 2, The Tour don’t allow Wentworth to firm the greens up to the level they would like. The players don’t like it too hard and the Tour obliges them in this respect. 3, If the weather gets bad the emphasis shifts away from driving and more towards scrambling and putting.

Luke Donald’s win in 2011 was proof of this. 6 under played off in tough conditions. Donald hit 67% of fairways that week at just 260.9 yards. It would have been tough to get to Francesco’s -17 total last year driving it like that! Franny hit 76.8% last year at 299.8 yards.

But when you look at the guys who go well at Wentworth you have to think of Monty (3 wins), Anders Hansen (2 wins) and Francesco Molinari (1 win but unreal form) and consider how good those guys are at finding fairways. Donald (2 wins) is the exception but we know back then nobody could touch him with a wedge and a putter. Donald, in 2011 and 2012 was world number 1 and led par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour. He did not rank inside the top 150 in driving distance, driving accuracy or greens in regulation and still headed that par 5 scoring stat! Really incredible and evidences that he is the outlier.

Francesco Molinari’s form by the way at Wentworth since 2012 is 7-9-7-5-55-2-1. Not bad. Makes 30/1 look generous. One must consider, however, the player he has become since The Masters. Amazing really that everyone contributed his success last season to ‘pressure practice sessions’ and ‘marginal gains coaching’. Perhaps it was a switch to a shorter putter which gave him some confidence for a few months before fatting two shots into the water on the back 9 at Augusta when favourite to win The Masters. Either way, over the last three and a half months all we have seen is a 16
th, a 57th, an 11th, an 82nd and a 61st. One feels Wentworth will really need to be his special place to see him contend again this week. He fits the profile well but lacks form and confidence.

If Rory clicks and finds his rhythm he probably wins. If he is not in sync he can hit it wide enough to miss the cut. Tough to get involved with him on such a penal course from the tee, he is an overrated driver of the ball as he doesn’t have a go to shot. I do think he is the best player in the world right now, however. Only the brave will take the 11/2, brave or…..

Rahm 11/1 and Casey 14/1 are great drivers of the ball and should go well. My preference is for Casey who is local, knows the course well and will be buoyed from his Porsche European Open win. Rose at 16/1 doesn’t hit it straight enough and will probably sneak by the cut before flying through the field on the weekend for another back door, top 10.

I like Fleetwood at 22/1. His Wentworth form is not fantastic 49-24-mc-6-69-mc-20 but his recent form is solid 2-4-43-11-13-8. Stenson is the same price and should go well. Few are better tee to green than these two. But the preference is for Fleetwood who represents slightly better value and could handle the less than perfect weekend weather a little better. I would be 14/1 Fleetwood and 25/1 Stenson.

At bigger prices Hovland should go well at 30/1 and nobody drives it better. Big ask on his professional European debut after such a hectic schedule. Ross Fisher still drives it good and took last week off (despite being a past winner of the KLM) to prepare for this, but he has been out of sorts for a while and a big ask to just switch it back on. Lucas Herbert is returning to form (8-22 last two starts) and drives it great when he is on, could go well at 175/1. At 500/1 you can have a pop on an extremely talented French man and a former British Amateur Champion, Julien Guerrier. He hasn’t played in 2019 since a thumb operation in January. He returns here, I believe prepared and overpriced. Another Frenchman, Romain Langasque is 175/1 and ranks 6
th in SG driving on the European Tour, one missed cut in one start here doesn’t bode well but he did finish 3rd in the Scottish Open a few weeks ago. Richard Sterne can stay at home in Sunningdale and practices at Wentworth. He has a good record on tough courses and 250/1 is big. He was 6th here in 2012.

All in though Fleetwood is the one to be on. He is back after a couple of weeks off, drives it great, scrambles well enough if the weather does worsen on Sunday.

BMW PGA Championship

To Win

0.25 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 22/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.25 units Lucas Herbert @ 45/1 (-0.25)

Top 10

0.25 units Richard Sterne @ 22/1 (-0.25)
0.5 units Lucas Herbert @ 20/1 (-0.5)
0.75 units Julien Guerrier 50/1 (-0.75)

Top 20

1.25 units Julien Guerrier @ 20/1 (-1.25)
1 unit Lucas Herbert @ 8/1 (-1)
0.5 units Jason Scrivner @ 9/1 (-0.5)
0.5 units Romain Langasque @ 8/1 (+4)
1 unit Kurt Kitayama @ 12/1 (+12)

This week's P&L =  +11.25 units
This week’s investment = 6.25 units

This week's Outright P&L = +11.25 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 6.25 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = units
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = units

2019 Total P&L = +39.97 units

2019 Total Investment = 629.83 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +17.75 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 499.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +22.22 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 132.98 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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  • • • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
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