UA-33754892-1 Archives for 15 January 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Volvo Golf Champions and Humana Challenge

Strangely the most disappointing thing about last week was Danny Willett. I say strangely as he was our best performer but I thought he was in a great position going into the final round and came up with nothing, which was a big surprise, considering his form over his previous 7 rounds of 2012. The rest were frustrating. This time of year you never really know how people are playing coming off winter breaks. We lost all 12 points leaving us down 21 points for the year. Not great.

So lets get it right this week. There is a limited field assembled for the inaugural Volvo Golf Champions event at the Fancourt Links in South Africa. I want to have a decent interest in the event as I love watching golf on great courses but there is limited value in a limited field. Oosthuizen is the 5/1 favourite which is fair enough after the form he showed in the African Open. Schwartzel would be favourite if it was not for his missed cut last week on a course he loves. Happy we dodged that bullet! Schwartzel was not that bad last week. He was -3 for the 2 rounds he played and was badly disrupted by the weather delays. You would expect there to be a lot more to come this week and in my mind he should still be favourite. Still, 13/2 is tight.

There is a temptation with Els at an attractive price with great course form and living locally. However, Ricki Roberts broke his ankle last week and will not be on the bag and there is a big doubt in my mind as to whether he will be ready for this. Too much of a gamble for me at 20/1. The one for me is Goosen. He has been in good form in his two starts so far in 2012. He proved me wrong at the African Open showing that he is almost back to winning ways. Last week his putter went a little cold on the weekend but he certainly has no rust, nor is he worrying about a new baby like Louis or coming off a missed cut like Charl. 14/1 is big enough for me to have a little interest.

Its rather strange that for a winners only event the field appears fairly weak. Obviously the Westwoods, Donalds, Mcilroys etc are not here but this will probably not take that much winning. Goosen is in good enough form and although he does not win a lot anymore, he is good enough to win this. The only other two players I can make cases for are both shorter than 13/2 therefore there will only be one be for me in the outright market here.

On to the States and the Humana Challenge. This event used to be the Bob Hope but that name has been replaced after 47 years. Not only has the name changed but the format too. It is now 4 rounds, not 5 and at no point do the pros play with 3 amateurs, just one as a partner and none in the final round. I used to love the unique five round format but there you go, why not make it just like the other events. Despite this it will still be good viewing as there are a plentiful amount of birdies on offer around these resort courses. Duval was a 59 shooter here in 1999.

That means we need to find birdie machines. Putting is obviously key but long hitting is also rewarded as there is not too much trouble and you can milk the par 5’s. Who do I like?

I like Dustin Johnson, Brian Gay, Bo Van Pelt, Carl Petterson, Brendon De Jonge, David Toms, Charlie Hoffman, Seung-Yul Noh, Jarrord Lyle and David Hearn.

I am so tempted with Dustin Johnson. He had an operation on his knee in November last year, was on crutches for a week before chipping and putting the week after. It is hard to tell how much this has affected him but the fact he withdrew from the hilly Kapalua event two weeks ago suggest he has not been 100% right. 22/1 is tempting but I will pass. Bryan Gay played well last week and I was gutted for a while that I was not with him but this is not really his thing. He needs an accuracy test.

My first pick is Bo Van Pelt. He makes a lot of sense to me. The only negative is this is his first time out in 2012. He finished tied 5th here in 2009 and has been ranked in the top 10 in birdies in 6 of the last 8 years. He fits the profile to a tee and if his putter is luke warm then 35/1 looks a good price. Carl Petterson played well last week finishing 2nd. He is such a good putter with the broom handle and the only reason I am not with him is he very rarely puts two performances together back to back.

The Zimbabwean Brendon De Jonge put a couple of great rounds together last week including a 62 in round 2. He loves a low scoring event. 80/1 is fair. David Toms stats were so good last year, he is not in that form yet this year. It will be a tough call to get him at the right time but to see him at 100/1 in fields like this is ridiculous. I am not sure this is ideal for him but I will be keeping a very close eye on him in the next few weeks, especially at prices like this. When he does find it three figure prices about him are going to look huge.

Hoffman has good course form and is backable at 100/1. This is his debut in 2012 and I have a gut feeling about him but seeing he was 147th in putting last year is too off-putting. Seung-Yul Noh is 100/1 this week. To me he can go well but his putting stats (110th) and par breakers (123rd) last week are not good enough. Maybe we will wait for a sterner test of ball striking.

Jarrord Lyle is another that on first inspection looks great value at 300/1. On closer inspection he made a lot of mistakes last week and none of his stats look good enough to suggest he should contend here. The player who looks statistically the call is David Hearn. He finished 10th last week after an opening pair of 66’s. He ranked 15th in driving distance, 4th in total driving and most importantly, 1st in putting. 100/1 is very fair.

Volvo Golf Champions

3 pts win Retief Goosen @ 14/1 (general)

Humana Challenge

2 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 35/1 (General)
1 pt each way Brendon De Jonge @ 80/1 (General)
0.5 pts each way David Hearn @ 100/1 (Boyle Sports, Geoff Banks)

Special Bet

3 pt double Charl Schwartzel to beat Louis Oosthizen @ EVS and Retief Goosen to bt Ernie Els @ 5/6. 72 hole match bets

2012 running total -21 pts This weeks investment 13 pts

2011 total +370.78 pts
2010 total +189.33 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.