UA-33754892-1 Archives for 15 April 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Volvo China Open and Valero Texas Open

Last week was the first time for a while that we suffered a Sunday with no excitement. We lost all 11 points invested. That drops our 2012 running total down to +42.13 points or a profit of £421.30 to a £10 stake.

This week looks far from inspiring. The China Open and Texas Open have some decent players in attendance but the fields do not have much depth which greatly reduces any potential value. China is also being played on a new course that is brutally long. It does eliminate some players and makes the favourite Poulter look a little under priced. Poulter does have a good record in Asia and is in good form but for me is unbackable at 14/1. Peter Hanson makes much more appeal at 14/1 as he has the length. His all round game is in great order too but it is hard to know how much Augusta would have taken out of him. Again 14/1 is tight. The course should set up well for Colsaerts but 16/1 is laughable. And so it goes on down through the field. Anyone who I fancy is not a backable price.

Texas is much the same. Kuchar heads the market but makes his debut at TPC San Antonio. The course is a very tough test and will challenge every part of a players game. This will suit Kuchar but his final round 77 last week is off putting. The other factor which really opens up the field is the prediction of pretty strong winds throughout. It really is very difficult to be confident with any picks given that circumstance. The field is weak despite a decent top end and again I can't identify any decent value on offer.

Therefore this week I am going to put forward a little multiple to give us an interest. In China I think Peter Hanson's all round game is better than Poulter's and his length advantage should be enough to see him off. Colsaerts should be able to beat the short hitting Francesco Molinari and Olesen the short hitting Soren Kjeldsen. In Texas take JB Holmes, who finished 11th here last year, to beat Kevin Na. JB has the length for this track and is good in the wind. Na made a 16 on the par 4 9th here last year. He is not a good ball striker and looks vulnerable despite some recent good form. They are all 10/11 apart from JB who is EVS with William Hill so the four timer pays nearly 13/1. I also like Kuchar to beat Na at 4/6 with Sportingbet but I am not one to pile in on an odds on chance.

China Open and Texas Open

1 pt accumulator Peter Hanson to bt Ian Poulter @ 10/11, Colsaerts to bt F Molinari @ 10/11, Olesen to bt Kjeldsen @ 10/11, JB Holmes to bt Kevin Na @ EVS. 72 hole match bets. (William Hill)

2012 running total +42.13 points. This weeks investment 1 point

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf