UA-33754892-1 Archives for 14 July 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Open Championhsip

The Open Championship - In running after round 2

0.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 30/1 (-0.25)

The Open Championship - In running after round 1

0.25 units Webb Simpson @ 28/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Rickie Fowler @ 40/1 (-0.25)

Lay 4 units Brooks Koepka @ 5 (+4)

The Open Championship

The 148th edition of The Open Championship returns to Portrush for the first time since 1951, and I think we need to buckle up and get ready for the lowest scoring Open since St Andrews in 2000, when Woods shot -19. The weather is set fair, with little wind forecast and just a sprinkling of rain. The greens are perfect and there are fewer bunkers on this Northern Irish gem than any other course on the Open rota. Sure, the set up is tougher than the Irish Open or the Northern Ireland Amateur Open, which are two of the more recent events held at Portrush, but Jamie Donaldson won with -18 (par 72, this week will play as a par 71) and Rory shot 61 at 16 years old here in the Amateur Open. 7 and 8 are new holes and 17 and 18 are different, but expect them to go low. The wind is the only real protection to Portrush, they won't get it rock hard, there will be plenty of birdies, which is good.

So, who will make the most. Well,
Rory is the obvious choice. He is the local lad. Holywood, his home course, is just 60 miles away and, as mentioned, he shot 61 here as a 16 year old. He has made this his target and he is trending in the right direction both with his recent form and Open form. Two wins and 11 top 10s this season and Open form since his win in 2014 reads 5-4-2. His Canadian Open win ranks as the best performance of this year for me. I mean he is a very worthy favourite, but could I take 9/1 about him in a low scoring, potential putting contest? I'm not sure.

Let's look at it another way, he was 13/2 last week for the Scottish Open in a far weaker field. He is 9/1 for this. One of the prices must be wrong. He finished 34th last week. For me he should have been nearer 9/1 last week and I would see him nearer 16/1 for this. Not a bet for me.

Koepka keep this incredible Major form going whilst producing little in regular events? I would argue no. I know he says he doesn't care or prepare for regular events and always plays the week before a Major and reasons this as to why his Major record is so good, and regular events so average, he prepares differently. Well, he didn't play last week. 11/1 is a poor price, I would see him nearer 20/1.

The fact the course should play easy means the field should be bunched, it may be harder for the better players to separate themselves. I fancy there's a chance for big prices to get in the mix this week. Therefore, players like
Dustin, Rahm, Rose, Woods and Molinari don't interest me much. There's a tiny bit of value in Dustin at 16/1 Rose at 22/1, but not enough for me to get excited about. Xander Schauffele @ 28/1 is interesting as he seems so adaptable and versatile. He also 'brings it' for Majors. He has played in 10 and has 5 top 10s and 7 top 20s including a 2nd at last years Open and 3rd at Pebble in the US Open. He's only 25 years old, incredibly. 25/1 is the price I would be and he is tempting.

I have to go a little further down the list before I find a couple of players I want to back in the win market. The first one is the US Open Champion
Gary Woodland. He has a steady Open record with no missed cuts and a best of 12th in 2016. He is a better putter now and the stinger 3 iron is a great weapon that should serve him well this week. I would be 40/1 and you can bet 85/1 generally, and as big as 100 on betfair.

My other win bet is another former US Open Champion,
Webb Simpson. His price is outrageously generous. His recent form reads 18-29-2-16 and Open form 16-64-mc-40-39-37-12. Again, not spectacular but solid. This test should suit him, he is an accurate player who can control his flights well and he is a rejuvenated putter with the armlock claw. I like him in all the markets this week.

So, let's confirm some of the 'sensible' stuff first before we come to the 'fun' stuff.

Webb at 90/1 to win, he is 105 on Betfair and I would be 33/1, take anything bigger than 55/1. Top 5 anything bigger than 10/1 should be bet, you can take 16/1 in a few places, I would be 13/2. Top 10 I would be 3/1, anything bigger than 5/1 is a bet and 7/1 is available. Top 20 I would be 6/4, anything bigger than 5/2 is a bet, plenty of 3/1 there.

Gary Woodland to win at 85/1, anything bigger than 80/1 should be taken, I would be 40/1. Top 5 he should be 17/2, anything bigger than 14/1 should be taken and 14/1 is his general price. Top 10 and top 20 there's not quite enough in the prices available to be bet.

Last of the sensible bets is
Keegan Bradley. He has 3 top 20s in 6 Open starts and finished 2nd in his penultimate start at the Travelers. His chance of winning is a little low to back but his top 5, 10 and 20 prices are all worth taking. Top 5 he is 40/1, should be 22/1, take anything bigger than 33/1. Top 10 he is 20/1, should be 10/1, anything bigger than 16/1 is a bet. Top 20 15/2, should be 11/2, take anything at 7/1 or bigger.

Now to the fun. I should be clear here, if this was a tough test I would not be backing any of these, even for small stakes, but the fact the course and weather should not discriminate against the lesser names, well, then I think these all have a live chance if dealing with the size and scale of the event and the pressure late on in the week.

I played with
Andy Wilson a couple of weeks ago in a tournament, he really impressed me as a player. Not his good stuff, most guys good stuff is much of a muchness, but his bad stuff was still very good and he is a confident putter. He only turned pro last November so has the advantage of playing a lot of amateur events on links. Since we played he won Open Qualifying at Notts Hollinwell and the EuroPro event the same week. He has game and a great attitude. Obviously making the cut would be a huge achievement for him, top 20 a dream, but he is in good nick so who knows. Let's be bold and take 300/1 about a top 5, 125/1 a top 10 and 40/1 a top 20.

Shugo Imahira is another huge price to keep on side. 3 top 5s, 6 top 10s in his last 9 starts with a rank of 71st in the world. Don't be fooled by this form being in Japan, anyone who can record finishes like that on any golf tour is a very, very good player. You don't break into the world's top 100 by sneakily playing a weak tour. If he can handle the moment, the occasion, then he can make these prices look ridiculous. Like Jazz did for us at the USPGA. 16/1 about a top 20 is a cracking bet.

Speaking of
Jazz, we will take him again, his form has gone nowhere. Admittedly he has only one Open appearance which went for a missed cut, but since his 14th at the USPGA he has posted finishes of 25-3-1-3-26. The win being the Korean Open. If there's no wind he can certainly get involved, this time with added belief and experience. Again, 11/1 a top 20 about the 51st ranked player in the world is just crazy. If he was American he would be well into single figures of a price.

Chan Kim is another who plays a combination of the Japanese and Asian Tours. He finished 11th at Birkdale in 2016 and has recent form of 11-mc-8-mc-2-3-mc(us open)- 3-22. Should he be 16/1 a top 20? I don't think so, I think 8/1 would be a much fairer representation of his ability.

Another talented Japanese/Asian Tour player from Thailand you may never have heard of is
Gunn Charoenkul. He has 9 top 10s in 16 starts this year. Recent form of 15-6-6-3-8-8-7-52 shows his level of consistency and ability. Having read those numbers I am sure you are also tempted to throw some change on him at 33/1 to get in the top 20 on his Open debut? I think 14/1 is his price a top 20.

I am tempted by
Yuki Inamori, a Japanese who looks overpriced, but he lacks the constancy of some of the others at similar prices.

Let's get more Thai's on board, take
Prom Meesawat in the top 20 market at 25/1. The 34 year old has two wins this year with more recent form of 7-mc-28-8-10. He is a similar player to Aphibarnrat and knows how to go low.

Abraham Ancer has warmed up nicely for this. His last two starts resulted in an 8th in the Travelers Championship and a 19th in the Irish Open. He handled the firm and fast conditions brilliantly in Australia when dominating at the Aussie Open at The Australian (won by 5) and can go well here. He is 20/1 to finish in the top 10, I would be 14/1.

We can wrap up this mammoth tipping list with just one more, in the top 20 market. A familiar name to regular readers,
Adri Arnaus. The young Spaniard arrives off a 2nd at Valderrama and 15th in the Irish Open. 14/1 a top 20 is generous, I would be 8/1.

So there we go. We are banking on friendly, low scoring conditions that allow less experienced, young but talented, underrated players an opportunity to shine. If the coastal weather does surprise then the experience and guile of
Woodland, Bradley and especially Simpson should come to the fore.

If you had to back one, let it be
Simpson in the win, top 5, top 10 and top 20 markets.

Enjoy The Open.

To Win

0.25 units Webb Simpson @ 90/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Gary Woodland @ 85/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.25 units Andrew Wilson @ 300/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Shugo Imahira @ 80/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Jazz Janewattanond @ 55/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Chan Kim @ 90/1 (-0.25)
0.75 units Webb Simpson @ 16/1 (-0.75)
0.25 units Keegan Bradley @ 40/1 (-0.25)
0.5 units Gary Woodland @ 14/1 (-0.25)

Top 10

0.25 units Andrew Wilson @ 125/1 (-0.25)
0.5 units Shugo Imahira @ 40/1 (-0.5)
0.75 units Jazz Janewattanond @ 22/1 (-0.75)
0.25 units Chan Kim @ 28/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Gunn Charoenkul @ 100/1 (-0.25)
1.25 units Webb Simpson @ 7/1 (-1.25)
0.5 units Keegan Bradley @ 20/1 (-0.5)
0.25 units Abraham Ancer @ 20/1 (-0.25)

Top 20

0.75 units Andrew Wilson @ 40/1 (-0.75)
1.5 units Shugo Imahira @ 16/1 (-1.5)
0.5 units Gunn Charoenkul @ 33/1 (-0.5)
0.5 units Prom Meesawat @ 25/1 (-0.5)
0.5 units Chan Kim @ 16/1 (-0.5)
2.25 units Webb Simpson @ 3/1 (-2.25)
0.75 units Keegan Bradley @ 15/2 (-0.75)
0.25 units Adri Arnaus @ 12/1 (-0.25)

Special Bets - Finishing Positions (Rolfe Index)

1 unit Brooks Koepka over 20.5 @ 1.860 (-1)
1 unit Rory Mcilroy over 11.5 @ 1.843 (+0.84)
1 unit Henerik Stenson over 26.5 @ 1.872 (-1)
1 unit Matt Wallace over 39.5 @ 1.865 (+0.87)

1 unit Francesco Molinari over 26.5 @ 1.852 (-1)
1 unit Adam Scott over 27.5 @ 1.846 (+0.85)

First Round Leader

no bet

72 Hole Match Bet (Skybet, tie no bet)

no bet

This week's P&L = -11.19
This week’s investment = 24.75 units

This week's Outright P&L = -14
This weeks's Outright Investment = 14 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +2.81
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 10.75 units

2019 Total P&L = +31.44 units

2019 Total Investment = 579.23 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +8.22 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 449.9 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +23.22 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 131.98 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.