UA-33754892-1 Archives for 12 May 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

USPGA Championship 2019

USPGA Championship in running - after round 3

0.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 25/1 (-0.25)

USPGA Championship in running - after round 2

Lay 1.5 units Brooks Koepka @ 1.33 (-0.5)

0.5 units Dustin Johnson @ 20/1 (-0.5)

USPGA Championship in running - after round 1

Lay 1.25 units Brooks Koepka @ 2.72 (-2.15)

The USPGA Championship 2019

The most underrated demand, this week, on players, trying to win the 101st USPGA Championship, is the rowdy New York fans. Even if they're on your side they can be hugely distracting and frankly, a pain. They will obviously make an incredible atmosphere for this championship, but it doesn't make playing one of the hardest golf courses in the world any easier.

Bethpage Black is a gem in every way. A reasonably priced, public course celebrating its 83rd year which was designed by A.W. Tillinghurst (also of Baltusrol, Winged Foot, Sleepy Hollow, Inverness etc fame) measures in at 7459 yards and offers a par of 70. It has rained this week, the course will be playing its length and the rough will be juicy. The primary measures 3.5 inches (fescue) just off the fairways but gets wilder if you miss big. Low temperatures won't help the ball fly any further, but sometimes, with the undulating nature of the course, if one gets a tee ball curving it will stay up there long enough to find some pretty bad trouble, so maybe this isn't a bad thing. Indeed, this week is all about ball striking and accuracy; and the crowds.

Some rain may come, and perhaps a freshening wind on Sunday, but all in they will hope the winning score will just enter double figures. We may see a slightly more lenient set up than certainly at the two recent US Opens ('02, '09), when -3 and -4 won, and probably similar to the two Barclays it hosted in 2012 and '16. The Barclays saw winning scores of -10 and -9, but it played as a par 71. The par 5 7th will be a 524 yard par 4 this week.

There is fantastic bunkering on the Black Course. Penal, but very fair. They are to be avoided on both approach and from the tee. The greens are poa annua so could get bouncy this time of year when seeding (Spring in NYC) but a mild winter has meant the course is in great shape, even if some of the trees aren't in full leaf yet.

Woods and Glover (US Opens) with Watney and Reed (The Barclays) are the recent winners at the Black. They are all ball strikers. Length helps, accuracy is the key. The greens are pretty flat and one can scramble, but it will be hard to do for 4 days.

So, who do we like?

Well, Cink, Love III, Ryder, Schwartzel, Vijay and Justin Thomas are all non-runners.

The Most Likely 10 (my prices in brackets)

1, Dustin Johnson @ 11/1 (11/1) - 7th Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 19th approach to the green, 5th in putting, number 1 in bogey avoidance. 3rd here in 2012, 18th in 2016. Huge chance despite blowing up in the Valspar and Harbour Town, when looking the most likely winner entering the final round. Looks priced correctly.
2, Rickie Fowler @ 22/1 (16/1) - Held the 54 hole lead here in 2016 Barclays before finishing 7th. Ranks 7th in putting and when in the grove, is an excellent driver of the ball. 7 top 20s in his last 9 Majors shows he knows how to get it ready, just needs to close one out now. Decent value.

3, Brooks Koepka @ 12/1 (18/1) - Defending this and then double defending the next Major, not often one says that without the words Tiger Woods involved. Big time player who is hitting it fine, but short game and putting has been poor. This switched up a little when leading the field at Trinity Forest last week in length of putts made, but not sure he is scrambling well enough to manage an off day. 70th here in '16. 12/1 looks short enough.

4, Justin Rose @ 20/1 (20/1) - Rose is a solid performer. He seems to have adjusted to the new equipment reasonable well but is driving it much wider than normal, 171st this year in driving accuracy, he must do better here. On the positive side he can use his greenbook again which he couldn't when missing the cut and putting horribly at Augusta. 13th strokes gained approach, 8th in putting, 20th tee to green. Any upturn in his driving should see him go close. Always value in the 'top markets'. Finished 46th in 2012 and 31st in 2016.

5, Rory Mcilroy @ 12/1 (20/1) - Rory is looking to win his 3rd USPGA, this season he is 1st in SG driving but that comes with a rank of 153rd in accuracy, shows power isn't the problem, but will need more accuracy for this week. All in he looks very good tee to green but, like always with Rory, it will be down to how he putts. He ranks 71st this year. I don't really fancy him despite his strong form coming in and his reputation from the tee. I think 12/1 is a poor price.

6, Jon Rahm @ 20/1 (22/1) - The young Spaniard is 2nd in SG from the tee and 13th SG tee to green. This is the good news. The bad news is he is often over aggressive in both strategy and temperament. Bethpage can make you unravel quickly if you become impatient and/or impetulant. 106th in SG around the green and 59th in putting means this part of his game may not save him. Not much value in him either.

7, Tommy Fleetwood @ 33/1 (28/1) - Coming off a tough, busy, cold, stressful week as host in Southport. By all accounts he did a magnificent job. This can work two ways, he may relax and perform, he may relax and get sloppy. I give him the benefit of the doubt as he seems to bring it every week and few offer such consistency in distance control, which is testament to his ball striking. He finished 8th in the British Masters but is on debut here. Mixed form between average and very good coming in. 4th in strokes gained from he tee and 2nd in scrambling. Flat greens should suit and should go well, not much in the price though.

8, Patrick Cantlay @ 45/1 (33/1) - Really solid throughout the bag and showed his credentials when storming through the field over The Masters weekend. Backed it up with a third the following week at Harbour Town, showing accuracy is not a problem. Can certainly get involved and a fair price.

9, Tiger Woods @ 14/1 (33/1) - Tiger has won 4 USPGAs and won here in 2002 and came 6th in 2009. Nicely rested since The Masters. Cooler conditions maybe not ideal for his back. Driving the ball ok (66th in SG from the tee), iron play is still great. 1st in GIR and 14th in strokes gained approach. 5th in strokes gained around the green too. 75th in putting may be the only real concern. He will get the worst of the crowds but knows better than most how to deal with them. All in, the cooler conditions, tougher driving layout and poor price means I will swerve him. Bad shots from the tee get punished more here than at Augusta, and he caught his fair share of luck there.

10, Paul Casey @ 55/1 (35/1) - No better than 31st here but has become a top 10 machine over the last couple of years. Finished 4th at Wells Fargo two weeks ago, which was his fifth top 5 in his last 9 starts, impressive numbers. His game is in great shape and every stat away from the putting surface gives us a clear window into his huge constancy. His ranking of 145th in putting also shows us why he doesn't rack up many wins. Still, fair value, and I don't think he will blow out à la The Masters. Again, like Fleetwood, the flatter greens will help him and this sets up perfectly for him.

The Big Value 5 (In order)

1, Shugo Imahara @ 500/1 (150/1) - The Japanese is 74th in the world and comes into his debut at Bethpage off a 2nd in The Crowns, 21st in the Asia-Pacific and an 18th in the Token Homemate Cup (all in Japan). He finished 39th in the WGC Mexico, which rewarded accuracy. Missed cut at Masters and is more a putter than a ball striker, but goes well on tough courses.

2, Jazz Janewattanond @ 500/1 (175/1) - Jazz is only 24 years old and feels like he has been around for ages. He is a hell of a player and the putter is the only thing that holds him back. He is 72nd in the world and won the Singapore Open (very strong line up) this year, holding off Garcia, Casey and Fitzpatrick down the stretch. He has won 4 times in the last two and a half years and carries form in here of 4-3-mc-5-mc-4-19. Although a lot of this isn't near this level, the third was in the Maybank. Has the potential to get involved.

3, Haotong Li @ 200/1 (80/1) - Comes into this off a 4th in the Volvo China Open. 9th a few weeks earlier in the Dell Technologies shows he is becoming more used to the US. 37th in the world, came second in strong line up to world number one in Saudi. Won in Dubai in 2018 and never looks scared of achieving on any stage.

4, Julian Suri @ 250/1 (100/1) - The New York native has played 4 times this year and finished 20th in the Maybank, 4th in the Indian Open, 2nd in the Trophee Hassan and 19th in the China Open. He showed his desire to come play in his homeland when Monday qualifying for events at the end of last year in an attempt to make it to the Fedex Cup. Has won twice in two years on the European Tour. He is a player.

5, Thomas Pieters @ 200/1 (90/1) - The most recognisable name on the 'value' list. Has been quiet the last couple of years but seems to be finding it again, perhaps winning the World Cup of Golf in November with Thomas Detry has breathed new life into him. Finished 23rd in Dallas last week and if he can find a straight hitting week could get involved.

The Selections

To Win

0.25 units Rickie Fowler @ 22/1 - Represents enough value to get involved. Has shown he can play the course (2016) and has shown his ability in the Majors. He has been knocking at the door and this looks a great opportunity for him. I would be 16/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.5 units Justin Rose @ 5/1 -
Loves a demanding test, which he gets here. A straight week from the tee should see him get involved. Isn't a great closer but rarely doesn't show up. I would be 4/1. (-0.5)

Top 10

1 unit Justin Rose @ 12/5 -
I would be 7/4 (-1)

0.75 units Julian Suri @ 22/1 -
I would be nearer 9/1 about a top 10 for the talented, big hitting New Yorker. (-0.75)

0.5 units Webb Simpson @ 6/1 -
18th in driving accuracy, 6th in SG around the green, 18th in SG tee to green and a US Open Champ. Very solid of late including a 5th at The Masters. Winners here like Reed, Fowler (at the time) and Glover were big drawers, as is Webb. I would price him at 4/1 a top 10 finish. (-0.5)

0.75 units Patrick Cantlay @9/2 -
Strong all around game and a genuine contender. I would be 3/1 (+3.38)

0.5 units Haotong Li @ 14/1 -
Underrated Chinese who has performed well and won big events. I would be 7/1. (-0.5)

0.5 units Joost Luiten @ 20/1 -
8 starts this year, 4 have gone for top 10s. 8th last week at Hillside. I would be 10/1 (-0.5)

0.75 units Rickie Fowler @ 5/2 -
I would be 2/1. Solid in Majors. (-0.75)

Top 20

1 unit Joost Luiten @ 7/1 -
I would be 7/2 (-1)

1.25 units Julian Suri @ 15/2 -
I would be 4/1 (-1.25)

1.25 units Patrick Cantlay @ 9/4 -
I would be 7/5 (+2.81)

1 unit Webb Simpson @ 13/5 -
I would be 15/8 (-1)

0.75 units Matt Fitzpatrick @ 11/2 -
I would be 7/2 (-0.75)

0.75 units Marc Leishman @ 4/1 -
I would be 14/5 despite some pretty average recent form and two missed cuts at Bethpage. His overall game isn't as good as normal but his approach work remains strong. Usually drives it well, seems to save his best for The Majors and has drifted out to backable prices. (-0.75)

0.75 units Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 11/2 -
Didn't really build on his 3rd at Bayhill. Been making cuts but not much else. His steady tee to green game suits this test. I would be around 18/5. (-0.75)

1 unit Haotong Li @ 6/1 -
I would be 7/2 (-1)

1.75 units Shugo Imahara @ 20/1 -
Worth chancing the Japanese at this price, I would see him nearer 8/1. (-1.75)

My Banker

2 units Justin Rose @ 6/5 to finish in the top 20 - I make this 8/11 and if I had to really get stuck into one bet this week, this would be it. (-2)

My Big Value Play

1.5 units Jazz Janewattanond @ 33/1 to finish in the top 20 - He will become a top 50 player in the world and contend for big events. Worth keeping him onside to take a giant leap towards this this week. 500/1 to win, 100/1 top 5 and 50/1 a top 10 have appeal, but this seems the most realistic whilst offering huge value. I would be 7/1 (+49.5)

First Round Leader

no bet

72 Hole Match Bet (Skybet, tie no bet)

no bet

This week's P&L = +37.39
This week’s investment = 21.9 units

This week's Outright P&L = +40.79
This weeks's Outright Investment = 18.5 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -3.4
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 3.4 units

2019 Total P&L = +71.05 units

2019 Total Investment = 386.4 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +64.39 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 320.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +6.66 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 115.23 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.