UA-33754892-1 Archives for 12 June 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

US Open

Scott Jamieson lead after the first round.....there you go, I had to get a sentence in quickly to justify two disappointing picks last week. Both Jamieson and Couch finished middle of the pack last week providing very little interest on the weekend. We lost 4 points. Our 2011 total now stands at +139.8 points or £1398 profit to a £10 stake.

I also want to get this out the way quickly before we look at this weeks main event. I tipped David Dixon a couple of times at the start of the year and he seems to have started finding his stride. He played well in Wales and continued the good form in Italy. He has a new caddy, Chris Harmston, and appears to be cutting out the big numbers. He has always made loads of birdies, it has always been about his mistakes. Last week in Italy he was in position going into Sunday but dropped 6 shots in his first 4 holes. He played the last 14 in 9 under. (I am aware this contradicts the previous comment regarding his mistakes but in general he is limiting his errors.) I was very keen to back him this week in France where he has won before. 33/1 is around the correct price I think. I would not put anyone off backing him but at the same time it is too short for me. I would need 50/1+ as no matter how good the player Saint Omer is a funky course and open to adverse weather.

So to the main event, The US Open. This year played at Congressional Golf Club’s Blue course. Last time it was played here was in 1997 when Ernie won by one. The course has changed a bit since then. The 18th used to be a par 3, it is now a 523 yard par 4 with a green surrounded by water. Also, maybe more importantly the greens have changed from poa annua to bent grass. The same change that Wentworth has made, the only difference being that these greens can putt at 14.5 on the stimp meter. They have sub-air under every green so even if the forecast rain comes in on Friday they will be able to dry the greens out, firm them up and keep scoring high.

In 1989 Rees-Jones renovated the course. When they changed the greens he came in again not only to over see the changes but also to add some new angles off the tee. The idea was to make players shape it, to find the best player. However it remains predominantly a drawers course.

This is why I like Mickeslon. He has finished 2nd 5 times in US Opens. This can be his year. The course is perfect. It will allow him to hit his more controlled fade, like he does at Augusta and he does pretty well there. It is set up perfectly for him. He is also in form. He shot 67 in round four at the memorial to finish 13th and is 15th in bogey avoidance, 6th in greens hit from off the fairway and 17th in scrambling. It was a toss up between Westwood and Mickelson for my main pick but Phil is a bigger price and I think Westwood’s short game will be found out here, especially with the tight run offs. Also his long game is not 100% which it would need to be. So despite ranking 10th in putting at St. Jude last week Westwood has to be past over in favour of Big Phil.

David Toms is the form player. 50/1 seems generous enough but this may be a bit too tough for him and he is not the longest hitter out there. Striker is another in form, the course sets up well but he does not figure in majors enough to back at 25/1. Mahan has every chance. He shares the course record of 62, drives it great and has finished top 10 in half of his starts this year. For me 22/1 is too short. He has not looked like he really wants to win. Maybe I will be proved wrong but I will pass. Nick Watney is another with the game for it. His Sunday performances this year have been poor (apart from Doral) and that makes 28/1 short. He is a future major winner, but maybe not this week. The world number one Luke Donald is an obvious contender. He has an incredible ten consecutive top 10’s streak going and putts well enough to win anywhere. However, I don’t think he should be favourite and certainly is not value at 11/1.

Out of the slightly more generous prices Webb Simpson 125/1, Jason Day 50/1, Charley Hoffman 175/1 and Bill Haas 100/1 stand out. Bill Haas was hot at the start of the season but seems to have fizzled out a little. The price is fair but this takes some winning and I am not sure his game is where it needs to be. Day makes a lot of appeal. However, he just seems frustrated with his putter and is not the straightest of hitters. I may kick myself for not backing him. Simpson will get backed though. His game is solid, perfect for this test. He may be a little inexperienced but he can go well at a decent price. Take the 125/1. Hoffman should do better than he is. He swings it great, hits it long and pure but he lacks consistency and you need that to win a US Open. His price is nice but I am not going to risk backing him as it would be just an absolute gut shot.

My last pick is my old pal Matt Kuchar. 25/1 is tight but he has made 14/14 cuts and has 8 tops 10’s this season. He has proved he can play tough courses well and has the perfect US Open game. He finished second at the Memorial holing everything. He once again leads the tour in the all round ranking stats. He is 16th in fairways hit, 12th in greens, 31st in greens and 2nd in bogey avoidance. He is the complete golfer and in a tournament that prides itself on trying to find the ultimate golfer through a gruelling test of skill and patience then surely Matt Kuchar must have the best chance.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -

The US Open

3pt win Phil Mickelson @ 16/1
3 pts each way Matt Kuchar @ 25/1
1.5 pts each way Webb Simpson @ 125/1

2011 running total +139.8 pts This weeks investment 12 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.