UA-33754892-1 Archives for 12 February 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Northern Trust

Apart from Maggert all the picks went well last week but still no returns.  Westwood is an each way runner now.  His last 9 leads after three rounds have resulted in just one win.  He is a great player but is not the winner he once was.  He does not putt aggressively enough when under pressure and his chipping is appalling.  It is frustrating as he always starts at win only prices.  Our 2012 tally now stands at -76 points.

I have been going with way too many short prices the last few weeks and racking up the losses.  We made profit by taking value and not necessarily trying to find the winner.  I am going to return to my roots this week!

The European Tour is in India this week for the Avantha Masters.  The DLF Club has thrown up some funky winners including two time winner SSP Chowrasia. He has not contended in anything before or since.  The only reason he is on Tour is because he gets into the event as an Indian and wins it. The course is tricky with very grainy greens.  This is too much of a riddle for me.  I think Horsey, Aphribarnrat and Kruger should go well but I am staying out of this one.

The Northern Trust Open is more my cup of tea.  Riviera is one of the old classic courses which rewards good course management and accurate play.  It is tough too, the second toughest par 71 on Tour outside of the Majors.  Only 2 of the last 23 winners have been able to call this their first win on Tour.  Experience is key, as are patience and management.  A proper tournament where many big names restart their seasons.

I like Maggert, Bradley, Stanley, Petterson, Rollins, Wilson, Senden, Frazar and Snedeker.

Snedeker is 45/1 and has been in great form this year.  He should do well but I am not sure if he is a good enough ball striker for this to really suit.  Maggert was poor last week.  His putting was very bad but this track really suits his game. He is a big price @ 175/1 despite his slight slip in form.  

Bradley and Stanley may lack in Riviera experience and are passed over.  Instead I am going to with Senden, Frazar and Wilson.  I drop Rollins and Petterson simply as I think these three represent better value.

Senden has two top 25's in two starts this year including a 6th.  But most importantly he is ranked 1st in driving accuracy, 16th in driving distance, 1st in total driving, 1st in greens in regulation, 1st in birdies per round and 1st in scoring average.  Of course he has played fewer events than most but impressive all the same.  He finished 21st here last year and looks value at 80/1.

Harrison Frazar has two top 5's in four events.  His all round game looks very solid. 100/1 looks generous for this in form player.  Finally Mark Wilson.  A winner already this year he is 7th in greens in regulation and 19th in putting. A decent combination for a player priced at 80/1.  11th here in 2008 is his best form but seems a big price considering three of the first five in the betting are first time out in the States this year.

The Northern Trust Open

2 pts each way John Senden @ 80/1
0.5 pts each way Jeff Maggert @ 175/1
1 pt each way Harrison Frazar @ 100/1
1.5 pts each way Mark Wilson @ 80/1

2012 running total -76 pts This weeks investment 10 pts

2011 total +370.78 pts
2010 total +189.33 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.