UA-33754892-1 Archives for 12 December 2010 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

South African Open

The Dubai World Championship was a close run thing. My selection Ross Fisher looked the most likely winner all week before collapsing disappointingly in the final round. We lost all 10 points invested leaving us with a running total of +199.33.

This week is the South African Open at Durban Country Club. Last time the event was at Durban Country Club in 2005 I qualified and played. I made the cut in good position before a disappointing weekend. The course is all about accuracy. It is fairly undulating but the rough is brutal. It is not a long course for a par 72 and is very scoreable if you get through the first six holes, which is by far the toughest stretch on the course. The greens are Bermuda which most players have a love-hate relationship with.

In 2005 Tim Clark won by 6 shots. It is his home golf course, the course he grew up on. In 2005 he played it every day for 2 weeks and there never looked another winner. This year he comes into the event in strong form having shot some low numbers around Sun City two weeks ago, a course that really does not suit him. I would not be surprised if he has gone through the same preparation after Sun City and he should be raring to go. His record on Bermuda greens is great, wins here and at Sawgrass in the Players Championship proves that. He is a must bet at 9/1 with all the other favourites with big question marks over them.

I want to put a little bit of each way value up alongside Clark. There is a lot to choose from in an open betting heat. Some of the South Africans I used to play with are brilliant players and slip in under the radar. Chris Swanepoel is a good example. A long hitting, fearless scorer at 400/1. Usually a stand out bet at that price but not round this course. This venue, unfortunately, is quiet unique on tour now. Accuracy over power, like the old days, so maybe these young guns have to be ignored. Some of the Tour School graduates should go well and Adam Gee makes some appeal 300/1 but surely after six pressure filled rounds last week it is a big ask to have the energy to go again straight away. One guy to oppose this week in all 3 ball matches and heads up games is Elliot Saltman. He got one of the last cards from Tour School last week and the long, wild hitter’s game is really not suited to this course. This combined with a week of bad press regarding cheating accusations that saw him disqualified from an event in Russia last year will make this a very difficult week for him.

I see the value in a South African who has done well on the Asian Tour this year, the ultra religious Jbe Kruger. He leads the greens in regulation stats in Asia so his game should suit Durban Country Club plus he should be almost immune to the intense humidity. He finished top 15 last week in the Dunhill and should go well at 55/1.

South African Open

3pts each way Tim Clark @ 9/1

2pts each way Jbe Kruger @ 55/1

(Running total +199.33 pts - this weeks investment 10pts)