UA-33754892-1 Archives for 11 November 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

SA Open, Hong Kong Open, Talisker Masters and The Dunlop Phoenix

We lost 12 points last week. All our runners played well, all finishing midfield but never really getting involved. Harris English was perhaps the closest. He was second after two rounds at Disney but, as he has done on a number of occasions this year, failed to post four good rounds. He is definitely a player and I am sure he click soon. Our running total took a knock and we fell back to +177.86 pts profit for the year.

This week we have four similar looking events to go through. Each market is very top heavy. There are short prices about a handful of good players and then you may as well stick a pin in to separate the rest. There is not much to do betting wise this week unfortunately.

Lets start with the SA Open. It is played at Serengeti Golf, the same venue as last year when
Otto won. Kaymer and Schwartzel share favouritism at 15/2 and it would take a leap of faith to back either at those prices. They both have a lot of class but are not really in form and have not won of late. That makes them hard to back. Grace is fair at 10/1 and has found winning easy this year. He would be the best of the short prices in my view. Coetzee has been in good form but is short at 12/1, he is not that close to Grace and I don’t think Grace is big at 10/1. Stenson clinched his US card last week, finishing 19th at Disney, and will come here with a bounce in his step. He is 59th in the Race to Dubai so could do with a big performance this week. He has shown some good form of late and his stats are surprisingly tight. I like his chances here as it is lenient from the tee but 14/1 is too short.

Aiken at 22/1 is the one I dwelt on for the longest. He finished 3rd here last year and is in decent shape having made 6 out of the last 7 cuts. He has a formidable record in SA boasting 7 wins and 9 second places. In 2011 in SA he has finished 14-3-13-36-mc-3 and in 2012 14-24-2. He is another who can wrap up a trip to Dubai with a good week after a solid season where he finished 7th in The Open. He can play and is very tempting at 22/1 but there just isn’t enough each way value in that price for me.

Rory should win in Hong Kong. He is the defending champion and has the ability to blow this field away. He is playing great and will be buzzed after winning both Player of the Year and The Vardon Trophy (low stroke average) this week. For me 5/2 is hard to take for an outright bet but we will do something with him.

Kuchar should really enjoy the Hong Kong Golf Club layout. Short, tight, a welcome premium on accuracy. He would be backed if Rory was not in the field at 16/1. Manassero had a great win last week and this suits him even better but again, 18/1 with Kuchar and Rory in front of him is not backable. Andres Hanson always seems to put in a run these days. Week in week out he is performing and is worth consideration, especially on this shorter test, but 20/1 is tight.

Two players at slightly bigger prices are
Jimenez and Kjelsden. Jimenez loves it here in Hong Kong and looks fair at 40/1 but his off course issues that have dragged on most the season seem to taken a lot of his focus. He is hard to trust right now. Kjelsden at 80/1 is worth a small each way play. This suits him a lot better than the longer tests in Singapore and China the last few weeks and he has performed well in those events. He has made his last 6 cuts, he has security again and finished 39th last year after a costly, closing 76. He missed the cut in 2009 and 2010 here but I think he can go well.

The Talisker Masters is played at Kiingston Heath in Melbourne, Australia and is another funny looking market. It looks like a three man tournament. Surely the winner will come from
Scott, Poulter or Mcdowell. For me Scott is the man. Yeah he is short at 3/1 but he says he is ‘desperate to win’ and last week in Singapore he only made 4 bogies on route to finishing 5th. Three of those bogies were in round 1. So we know he is playing well. In his press conference he said "In some ways it has been a really good year as I have played a lot of really good golf, I have been very consistent week in and week out, performing at a pretty high level, but I haven't managed to put four days together at the right time. Therefore I haven't won an event this year, which bothers me a little bit. But I am here and I have got a chance this week and hopefully I can get it done here. I am pretty desperate for a win and I will be focused starting tomorrow morning.” Sounds good to me! I think we wrap him up in a double with Rory in Hong Kong which at 5/2 and 3/1 pays 13/1.

The top heavy market trend continues into Japan and the Dunlop Phoenix event.
Donald 7/2, Colsaerts 12/1, Castano 14/1, Ishikawa 14/1, Fujita 18/1, Olesen and Blixt at 20/1 make the market tilt substantially. But the one I like is the next one in the market. Eduardo Molinari at 28/1. He finished 39th here last year, 4th in 2010 and won in 2009. He is playing solid and at 28/1 can return to the player we know he is this week.

Hong Kong Open

0.5 pts each way Soren Kjelsden @ 80/1

Dunlop Phoenix

1 pt each way Eduardo Molinari @ 28/1

Special Bets

2 pt win double Adam Scott @ 3/1 (Talisker Masters) Rory Mcilroy @ 5/2 (Hong Kong Open) (Pays 13/1)

2012 running total +177.86 points. This weeks investment 5 points. This weeks P&L = -5 pts

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.