UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 November 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

DP World Tour Championship and OHL Classic

Last Week

Both our picks got into contention in their respective events on Sunday. Charl Schwartzel finished with 4 bogies in the last 6 whilst everyone else finished hot. He ended up finishing 29th which was not a true reflection of his running. CH3 birdied the first two on Sunday to get up to 3rd in the States. He then went bogey, triple bogey never to be seen again. The triple was on a par 3 without going in a hazard! We lost the 3.5 points invested and fell back to +4.28 points for the year.

The only thing that really bothered me was watching Chris Kirk win. I have backed him a lot over the last year and had him shortlisted again last week. I was put off by his relatively mediocre putting figures in the early events this season. He ranked 70th going into the week and putting is his strength. If that is not firing then you can’t back him. He refound his touch last week and we were not on.

This Week

DP World Tour Championship

2.75 pts win Justin Rose @ 15/2. (-2.75 pts)

0.5 pts each way Thongchai Jaidee @ 66/1

finished 2nd here last year and is in ominous form. He has four top 6 finishes in his last six starts. The course suits a ball striker and the greens, that are reported to be super slick, should emphasise this yet further. The market is tight at the top but I think he is the best player in this field and is in the best form. He can carry his current upward momentum and win this week.

Big ask for Thongchai to get in the mix in this sort of line up, but his two top 10’s in this event alongside his 2nd in China in a similar line up, 3 weeks ago, makes 66/1 look a little too big.

OHL Classic

1 pt each way John Senden @ 50/1 (-2 pts)

0.75 pts each Briny Baird @ 50/1 (-1.5 pts)

0.75 pts each way Kevin Stadler @ 50/1 (-1.5 pts)

0.25 points each way Bobby Gates @ 300/1 (-0.5 pts)

0.25 points Bobby Gates to finish top 10 @ 28/1 (-0.25 pts)

0.25 points each way Bobby Gates to be first round leader @ 200/1 (-0.5pts)

Good drivers have done well here, especially players who hit it straight. Senden is one of the best ball strikers on Tour and finished 4th last week. He hits it very straight and although he finished in a lowly 53rd in his penultimate start, the Shriners Hospitals, he was actually 4th at halfway and 11th through 3 rounds. A closing 77 killed him. He has form and course should suit.

Baird plays well in streaks and disappears in extended streaks but he was good last week. In a way I can’t believe I am picking a player who has not won in 366 starts but his record here is unreal, 12,6,4,5,12 in the last 5. 50/1 looks big considering these two factors.

Stadler is simply a superb driver of the ball. This year he ranks 8th in accuracy and is far from short. When the putter half behaves he is world class. He has 3 top 20’s in 5 starts here and finished 10th last week. 50/1 is decent, I would have had him around 33’s.

Bobby Gates is a left field punt. He finished 5th here in his only start and the Texas based Floridian plays his best in the South, including a 4th in New Orleans. Last year he was very, very poor but got his playing rights back via the playoffs. I just think he is overpriced despite missing the cut in his only start this year, a continuation of his poor from last year. I think he can bounce back here and at the generous prices on offer he is worth a go. The reason for this is he is long but wild, and where I appreciate this contradicts my earlier point, I think he can pull irons out and leave driver in the bag. Also rain is forecast so, even though the course is under 7000 yards, it will play longer than that, especially with some wind also in the forecast. Either way, it is a ball strikers week.

2013 running total = 4.28 points. This week’s investment 10 points. This weeks P&L = -10 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.