UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 June 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

US Open

We only lost 4pts last week but we were close to a bumper week. If Mcilroy could hit a fairway we would have been quids in. Mcilroy managed to hit just 26 out of 56 fairways last week yet stilled held an outright lead for most of the last day before hitting it in the water on the 72nd hole, taking a double bogey and his chance was gone. Westwood won in Sweden in some style and the 83/1 double with Rory looked a good thing. Still, on a positive note, we have 16/1 about a 12/1 chance for the US Open. Lee Westwood will lead out our US Open assault!

The 4 point loss sees us slip back to +42.83 points of profit for the year, £428.30 to a £10 stake.

112th US Open, Lake Course at Olympic Club, San Francisco, par 70, 7170 yards, 4400 square feet average green size, perfect weather forecast with a slight chance of fog or a decent breeze coming off the Pacific.

The first guys I had a look at were Colt Knost and Michael Thompson. They battled out the US Amateur here in 2007 and are both playing this week. You can get 500/1 about each of them. This price looks big but on further examination there is good reason for the lofty prices. Knost is 183rd in driving distance and 154th in greens in regulation and Thompson is 132nd in driving distance, 124th in accuracy and 123rd in greens in reg. Basically neither can hit it at the moment which does not bode well for a tough US Open track! The other off putting factor is the course changes. They have course form but they are merely happy memories now, the course is so different. The slope on 18 green has been flattened making it fair, hundreds of trees have been removed because of disease, 8 holes have new tees meaning the holes will play at different angles, 7 greens feature new run off areas and the greens have changed from poa annua to a hybrid bent grass….. so as I said, their amateur days are now just good memories.

I like Rose (33/1), Westwood (12/1), B Watson (50/1), D Johnson (28/1), Mickelson (20/1), Mcilroy (15/1), Woods (8/1), Van Pelt (66/1), Dufner (30/1), Bradley (60/1) and Garcia (50/1).

We have a small interest on Westwood already at 16/1, he was impressive last week but I am not going to back him again at 12/1. As I said last week he appears ready to win when he does not care but he will care this week. I am happy to have a small interest each way as he has finished in the top 3 in 6 of his last 10 Majors but will always struggle to get across the line and he is now a win only price for me.

I am so tempted by Rose at 33/1. He has become a serious player this season. He competes every time he tees it up now and not just when he is hot. He has 5 top 10’s in his last 8 starts. When you see 19th in driving accuracy, 3rd in greens in reg (GIR) and 6th in scoring average you can see why he is having a fine year. The concern is 123rd in putting. You have to think if he putts good he will be right there but on some of the toughest, fastest (expected to be between 11.5 and 13.5) greens of the year you would have to think he is vulnerable. 33/1 is fair but I just can’t be with him.

Rory has to be considered, obviously. The way he won this last year was so impressive and he carried forward that excellent form. The last few weeks he has not looked himself, having missed 3 out of 4 cuts. He had a great chance to win last week but the driver was out of control and to me it further illustrated how he finds it hard to win. He gives himself so many chances and only converts a tiny percentage. Therefore he is passed over at 15/1.

Dustin Johnson can win this. I just wish he was a slightly bigger price. He has 4 top 10s in his last 6 starts including his win last week. He does well on the West coast, especially on old courses with small greens, like Pebble where he has an incredible record. His stats last week are encouraging for this week. 18th in driving accuracy, 20th in distance and 4th in GIR. He is a confidence player and has a solid enough US Open record. 40/1 he would definitely be in, 28/1 makes it a tough call as it puts him in with a lot of strong players like Kuchar, Rose, Dufner etc. Hmmm, an interesting runner.

Mickelson will be desperate to win this. He has 5 US Open runner up finishes! This course should suit as well. He can work it both ways and from all accounts the rough is not overly severe. Again, like Dustin, he does well on the West coast on old courses with small greens. 20/1 looks a fair price. He looked out of sorts at The Memorial (WD) and his putting is not as hot as it was at the start of the season but he can bounce back from that as he prepares more thoroughly than anyone. Also his draw is far from ideal. He plays with Woods and Bubba. When he plays with Bubba he appears to try and keep up, it did not work out well for him at The Memorial. Still, he is tempting to pick, but again short enough considering recent form. His win and 4 top 5’s from 13 starts and US Open form make him 20/1, does his recent form make him 20/1?…. along with Dustin if he was just a little bigger he would be a bet.

Which Bubba Watson will turn up this week. 50/1 suggest it is not the same one that won The Masters. I actually like Bubba this week. 99th in driving accuracy, 1st in distance, 1st in GIR but 166th in putting. He has the game but there are perhaps too many question marks about his current form and course suitability. Is Bubba really a back to back Majors man? I can see him getting in the mix but not holding on, I will have to pass.

Jason Dufner is the form man. In his last 4 starts he has 2 wins and a 2nd. 5th in total driving (11th in accuracy and 57th in distance), 6th in GIR, 3rd in birdie average, 5th in scoring and 9th in bogey avoidance shows his game is primed for the toughest test in golf. He does not come with the ‘what ifs’ of a Mickelson, Bubba or Dustin. He looks solid and as long as he deals with the added expectation can put in a strong showing. He has handled tough courses well, as he proved in the Byron Nelson and last years USPGA. 30/1 is a fair price and should be backed. Dufner’s inclusion in the staking plan eliminates Mickelson and Dustin.

Woods has to be the most likely winner. In winning The Memorial two weeks ago he ranked 1st in GIR and was his 2nd win in 5 starts. He ranks number 1 on Tour in total driving and 7th in GIR. He is an obvious pick and 8/1 suggest he is back to somewhere near his best. However, there are two nagging negatives. The two wins have come on courses where he has phenomenal records and he has not performed in the tougher driving events like the Wells Fargo and The Players. The second negative is yes, he is number one in total driving (22nd in accuracy) but that does not tell the full story. He is more consistent off the tee but when he is missing he is missing big. He will like being able to hit that chip-fade most of the time on this shortish, fast course but he will have to hit some draws and that will ask some big questions of him. When backing an 8/1 chance in a golf event there can be no question marks so I will leave the favourite alone.

Bo Van Pelt finished 14th in the US Open last year and has 9 top 20’s, 6 top 10’s, in his last 13 events (in the Wells Fargo he withdrew with a wrist injury). He finished 7th at The Players which is a tough driving course with an overall shortish yardage similar to Olympic. He also finished 8th at Riviera has a lot of similarities with Olympic. He is 6th in total driving and 4th in putting, a combination that will work at most venues! I really like his chances at a juicy 66/1.

Keegan Bradley has gone through a little bit of a slump of late. He has not finished in the top 25 in his last 6 starts. In the previous 9 events he did not finish out of the top 25! He finished 2nd at Riviera this year and he will like this tough test. What is the difference between the first 9 events of the year and his last 6, why the contrast? That is the big question and it comes down to making some big numbers at the wrong time. He also played a lot at the start of the season, hardly missing a week and appeared to burn out a little. His overall game appears to be in decent shape. I think he can put in a decent showing here. 60/1 is worth a small interest, even though I can not believe he is shorter than Bo Van Pelt.

I would love to back Sergio this week. 50/1 is a big price for a player in form with a perfect US Open game. He has finished in the top 25 in each of the last four years and finished 3rd (charging) last week in Sweden. In total he has 8 top 25’s in 12 US Open starts. He ranks 19th in putting in The States and 10th in Europe and as always is hitting plenty of greens. But does Sergio believe he can win. He made many negative remarks at The Masters claiming he is not good enough to win a Major. I know he does not truly believe that, he would walk away from the game if he truly believed it to be true. He may get in the mix but he is hard to back as you can’t help think that if it does not go his way he may sulk and throw the towel in. Oh well, three picks and the ante post pick it is then!

US Open

2.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 66/1
2 pts each way Jason Dufner @ 30/1
1 pt each way Keegan Bradley @ 60/1

Special Bets

1pt Dufner, D. Johnson or Kuchar to win @ 9/1 (Sky Bet’s Three Chances to win)
5.5 pts Bo Van Pelt to beat Padraig Harrington 10/11 72 hole match bet (Betfred)

Already Advised
1 pt each way Lee Westwood to win the US Open @ 16/1

2012 running total +42.83 points. This weeks investment 17.5 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf