UA-33754892-1 Archives for 09 February 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Africa Open and Northern Trust Open

No joy last week despite three of our picks getting into 6th place or better in the AT&T. Tough not to get a return but it feels like we are getting close.

This week I have no interest in the Africa Open. It is a funky field played on an average course where the wind can pound. I will sit it out.

Lets focus more on the US where they are back at the wonderful Riviera Country Club in LA for the Northern Trust Open. This is a great course which is matched by its surroundings and history. At 7349 yards it is no push over. It is treelined and has tiny greens, averaging under 5000 square feet. John Merrick won here last year snatching victory from Bill Haas who started the final day with a 3 shot lead. Merrick did nothing spectacular. He ranked in the top 27 of each major stat category but no higher than 11th in a single one.

He did well to average 4.00 on the par 4s, this was good for 11th in the par 4 scoring ranking. Where he did the damage, and where the winner this year will inevitably do his scoring, is on the par 5s. Merrick made 7 birdies and two eagles to be -11 for them, that ranked first in the field.

The players I like this week are Will MacKenzie, Harris English, Webb Simpson, Graham DeLaet, Charles Howell III, Kevin Stadler, Ryan Moore and Brendon Todd.

Harris English is the first one for me to dismiss. 51st on his only appearance and despite being a way more established player now I can’t take the 33/1 on offer. Webb Simpson is next. I would love to back him. He is in great form and has a good record here, finishing 6th last year. His stats are magic and despite being clumsy through the first few rounds in Phoenix, he still managed a top 10. If he is focused here he is the man to beat in my view. This course should be perfect for Graham DeLaet. He has an awesome long game and his putting seems to improve week on week. He came close at Phoenix but he is not a 22/1 chance in my eyes. Moore is a decent price at 30/1, is in good form and had a 4th here in 2011. He is a good accurate player. But again, in a very competitive heat I am not sure he has the amo to milk the par 5s.

Will MacKenzie is a no brainer for me at 100/1 He doesn’t have a good record here but hasn’t played here for two years. His form is great as are his stats. 13-7-13 on his last 3 starts are all on courses he carries little or no form. He has 6 top 15s this season and is knocking on the door. 100/1 is big.

I am not overly keen on CH3 here. I really like his stats and want to back him soon but in his last 5 starts here he has 3 missed cuts and a best of 59th. There will be better courses for him this season. 50/1 isn’t worth chancing. Stadler on the other hand does have decent form here. 10-12-24-42. We know he is in decent order and with a week to catch his breath (which he normally struggles to do after a few paces!) can go well again. 80/1 is good for this tee to green expert.

That makes my last pick Brendon Todd. He was in the box seat going into the final round last week only to free fall through the field on day 4. His stats are tight and has two top 20’s in his last 4 starts, that should be three top 20s if it wasn’t for his Sunday splurge. 100/1 is fair and worth an interest. It also shows how big that price is about MacKenzie, they shouldn’t be the same price, but that tells me more that Will is over priced rather than Todd being under.

Lets hope for a bit of luck this week, we have been close!

Northern Trust Open

1 pt each way Will Mackenzie @ 100/1
0.75 pts each way Kevin Stadler @ 80/1
0.5 pts each way Brendon Todd @ 100/1

2014 running total = -28 points. This week’s investment 4.5 points. This weeks P&L = -4.5 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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