UA-33754892-1 Archives for 07 July 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Scottish Open and John Deere Classic

Last week was a strange week for our players. The shorter priced players all bombed out early. In France it was almost impossible not to make mistakes. It is a long time since I have seen so many doubles and trebles in one event. Even at the US Open. Kuchar made less mistakes then most but could not buy a birdie. He was never in contention which was interesting as the course seemed to set up perfectly for him. Billy Horschel, our shortish price man at The Greenbrier, got off to a slow start before finding his feet on day 3. He was challenging for a backdoor top 5 before double bogeying the 15th.

Our big price players kept getting in the mix before slipping up. Back in France Alejandro Canizares looked like he was going to have a big week after two rounds. He does not get in contention often, but when he does he rarely goes away. He fell away rapidly on day 3 with an appalling 80. Bourdy at 100/1 looked in a good spot to get a place after 3 rounds but a closing 76 left him in 34th. Brandon Stone opened with a quadruple bogey 8, recovered impressively to shoot +1, then fell away again on day 2. Professional golf is looking a little harder now for him since his dream debut week in Germany. Henne Otto had a really solid week in France. It is always exciting to get a 300/1 chance in with an outside chance of a win but a bogey, double, bogey run around the turn cost him his chance. A par at the last would have seen him place at 75/1 but a double saw him finish 13th.

At The Greenbrier we were given more false hope by Russell Henley. After opening rounds of 67 and 65 our 50/1 chance was favourite with many firms. A +3 weekend saw him finish nowhere. Chalmers and Tringale played like their prices suggested they would. Molder showed glimpses but ultimately did not alter our heart rate. Charles Howell missed cut. Matt Jones pretty much saved the day. The 250/1 shot finished a career high 2nd. He never really looked like winning but was solid throughout. We touched upon his decent ball striking and excellent scrambling but it was his putter that almost got it done for him last week, ranking 5th in the category last week. Interesting to see he is available this week at just 50/1! He returned 15.63 points meaning we made 0.63 pts on the week. A wins a win I guess. -116.02 pts for the season.

This week there are two pretty tight markets. One for the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart and the other for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.

Lets have a look at Scotland first. If the weather is good in Inverness, which it is forecast to be, then scoring could go seriously low. -19 and -17 took home the spoils in it’s first two years as host course. The first year it was very soft, as the event struggled through the effects of torrential rain. Last year the course played true throughout. This year could be firmer however, which could throw up some different problems. If it gets fiery it can still get fiddley, even at 7200 yards. The course is fairly lenient from the tee. Most of the challenge comes around the greens, poor weather or strong winds. We really need to find a player who is not scared of making birdies and can tidy things up efficiently when errors are made. Mickelson instantly looks like a great fit.

Lets have a quick look at the market leaders. Els is favourite at 18/1, 20/1 in a place. Really not for me. He hits it good enough to go low but his putting is questionable. He posted -17 to win in Germany but his long game was unreal there. His course form of 25,52 does not offer too much encouragement either. He is undoubtedly in form and a great links course player but for me he is a player that you now try and catch right at a big price rather than rely on at a shortish price.

Stenson and Mickelson are next up at 20/1. I really like both their chances this week. Mickelson should have conditions he likes and shot a 62 here in the third round last year. Stenson has an 8th on his sole start. Last two starts he has finished 21st and 10th. This season his stats show him as one of the best, most accurate ball strikers on the planet. When the putter has behaved he has contended. I do like him this week but 20/1 is not much to get excited about. I would probably, marginally, if I had to pick one, suggest Mickelson is the slightly better value out of the two 20/1 shots. Forget his missed cut last week. He turns up for a huge pay day and has never made the cut at the Greenbrier. The Greenbrier is very family orientated, he is the ultimate PR family man, and what better way to promote this to the world than to take the weekend off to be with them? My fear with Mickelson is he will be tinkering and trying things this week. However, he has a strong record in the events he plays the week before Majors. It is very tempting to give him a go at a fair price.

Casey (25/1), Bjorn (25/1) and Manassero (28/1) have all been in good form but have not played well here. Bjorn a pair of missed cuts, Manassero a 36th and Casey a missed cut. Colsaerts finished 3rd here in 2011 and 36th last year. He has looked like he has got his grind back after falling off his Ryder Cup cloud a little. There is money for him this week and he should go well at 28/1. There is also a bits of money for Shane Lowry. No huge surprise. He has been very steady this year, including a 5th in the Irish Open last time out. He has looked very comfortable and confident after a bold show in the WGC Matchplay at the start of this year. Throw into that course form of 14,11 and you can see why he is proving popular. There is still a little value in the 33/1 still on offer but I am going to go a little further down the list for my last two picks.

Brooks Koepka is 80/1 with Coral. That is a hell of a price and if it is still available when you read this, stop reading, get on and then come back and read the rest! He is a general 66/1 shot which appears to be a fair price to me. The obvious question you expect to be asked when tipping Brooks is “He has done all his winning on the Challenge Tour, winning on the European Tour so soon is a big ask is it not?” My answer will be, any player who can win three times in a season, four times in less than a calendar year is more than good enough to win on Tour. He also beat a lot of these players at Sunningdale when winning Open Qualifying. I don’t think this is a particularly strong field and certainly lacks depth. His last win came in Scotland a few weeks ago. I expect a player who many are describing as the best they have seen to put in a strong showing here.

My last pick for Scotland is Soren Kjeldsen. I was very close to picking him last week and was kicking myself before he made a triple bogey 7 up the last. That took him out of the places into a share for 8th. It shows the small Dane is playing well though and his last 5 finishes of 14,102,68,18,8 show progression from a mediocre start to the year. He finished 5th at Castle Stuart last year and the firm and fast conditions should suit him well here, as he is not the longest.

Over to the States and the John Deere Classic. Now this is a tournament which has been dominate the last few years by Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson. Stricker’s form here is 1,1,1,5 and Z. Johnson 69,2,21,3,1. Impressive stuff which makes our job a little easier. I say that as Stricker is not a backable price at 7/1. Sure he has to be favourite in a pretty weak field and anyone who reads this regularly knows what a big fan I am of his but I would never back him at that sort of price. I wouldn’t want to back him to be top American at 7/1! I think he is the best player in the field but would still want to see him in at least a double figure price. Same story with Zach. Like him as a player and his record speaks for itself here but 18/1 about a player who really has not fired this year? He as three top 20s this year and one of those came in the first event of the year, which was a limited field of the previous years winners. He finished 18th there, 19th at Sawgrass in The Players and 3rd at the Crowne Plaza in May. I would want to see more from an 18/1 chance at this point in the year.

I said it made our job easier as it means we don’t have to guess too much at the type of profile of player we need to find for TPC Deere Run. Both Zach and Stricker are fairly accurate but not long drivers of the ball. Both are good iron players who don’t spin it much. The key though here is they are both exceptional wedge players who putt great. Inside 100 yards there are not many better than Stricker and Zach. Paul Goydos shot 59 here in 2010. He backs up the accurate but not long from the tee thought. The rough is at 3 inches but it has been very wet there of late so it should be lush. The greens are big, averaging almost 8000 square feet. The scoring should go pretty deep again as the weather looks set fair. The average winning score is 16 under, so maybe expect that to be broken with a few non exempt players showing some extra hunger in hope to try and earn one of the last two exemptions to The Open.

It is a shame Stricker is so short as his stats really do put him a long way clear here. My top 10 in order are Steve Stricker, Keegan Bradley, Chris Kirk, Charley Hoffman, Jordan Spieth, Brendon De Jonge, Matt Jones, Harris English, Kevin Streelman and Charles Howell.

I do like Keegan Bradley. He is an aggressive birdie machine who could shoot lights out here but for me he is just a little too short at 25/1 for a player who has not played the event before. He has 6 top 10’s in 17 starts this season but I like a bit of the value elsewhere. I am also going to put a line through Spieth as he doesn’t fit the putting and birdies profile. He is more of a long game grinder as shown last week when he could not muster a single birdie in a disappointing last round. De Jonge goes as well, 40/1 is a poor price. I appreciate his form at the John Deere is impressive. 7,7,19 the last 3 years. Also he ranks 105th in putting.

Matt Jones did us proud last week at 250/1 but it was still a shock to see him priced up at 50/1 for this. He has now drifted back to 66/1 but it is still too short for me. The price is a combination of the excellent form of last week, where he ranked 5th in putting, but also decent form in the event. He has missed cut the last two years but registered two 5th place finishes in 2009 and 2010. 66/1 does not appeal to me. Kevin Streelman was the hottest player on Tour for a little while this season. You have to go back to the beginning of May for this though. He finished 8th here last year and in 2009. It is hard to get excited about a 50/1 price tag about a player who has missed his last four cuts. It is a strange run of form for a player who was cruising and as it is unexplained, perhaps he is better left alone. Charles Howell’s missed cut last week makes him an easy one to dismiss at 66/1.

So Chris Kirk gets the first pick at 66/1, 70/1 in a place. I like that he ranks 1st in scrambling and 13th in putting which should really work around here. He also makes plenty of birdies, ranking 17th on tour. In his two starts here he has a 22nd and a 30th and his recent form has not been stellar. I just think 66/1 is very fair about a player who sets up for well the venue.

Charley Hoffman is next up. He has been one of the most consistent players this season and it is hard to believe he hasn’t caught a win yet. He swings in beautifully and contends when the putter behaves, which it is doing at the moment ranking 38th which is good enough for a quality ball striker. He finished 15th here in 2009 and 7th in 2010 and at 40/1 is worth a play.

Harris English won the Fedex St Jude in June, finally answering the question of wether he can close, as he struggled the first few times. He is a player who can go low with ease and this should a nice fit for him despite having never played here before. I think 50/1 is a nice price about a young, talented player with bags of potential who is a recent winner.

One I am going to put in for an interest at a huge price is Colt Knost. He has missed five straight cuts, has made just $141,706 this season and ranks pretty much last in driving distance, greens in regulation and birdie average. He missed the cut last week but did post a second round 65 (-5). Now this is not huge but it will give a player who had no confidence a bit of life coming into this week in need of a decent week. He only has missed cuts to his name at the venue but I am going to have a tiny punt on him this week at 750/1 and at 300/1 to be first round leader. That round and a rank of 37th in putting gives him a chance.

John Deere Classic

1pt each way Chris Kirk @ 66/1 (-2pts)
1pt each way Charley Hoffman @ 40/1 (-2pts)
1pt each way Harris English @ 50/1 (-2pts)
0.125 pts each way Colt Knost @ 750/1 (-0.25pts)

Scottish Open

1.5 pt win Phil Mickelson @ 20/1 (+30 points)
1pt each way Brooks Koepka @ 66/1 (-2pts)
0.75 pts each way Soren Kjeldsen 66/1 (-1.5pts)

Special Bets

0.25 pt each way double Phil Mickelson @ 20/1 and Keegan Bradley @ 25/1 (-0.5pts)
0.25 pt each way double Henrik Stenson @ 20/1 and Keegan Bradley @ 25/1 (-0.5pts)
0.125 pts each way Colt Knost @300/1 to be 1st round leader of the John Deere Classic (-0.25pts)

Already Advised
Antepost - The Open

0.75 pts each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1
1.5 pts each way Sergio Garcia @ 33/1

2013 running total = -116.02
pts. This week’s investment 12.5 points. This weeks P&L = +19 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.