UA-33754892-1 Archives for 06 February 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Dubai Desert Classic and AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am

GGGGeeeeessssshhhhh last week was close. Europe was a write-off really from the Thursday. David Dixon missed the cut and Romain Wattel was like a yoyo in the tough conditions, 77-68-77-69 for 59th. The Phoenix Open was a different story. Bases were well and truly loaded. We had Couch and Ogilvy in the places and Points and Taylor within touching distance going into the final round. Even with holes to play we were a banker for at least two big price place finishers. We ended up with nothing. Gutting. Four big prices all inside the top 20 and nothing to show for it.

A 9.5 point loss tugged as back to a 36.5 point running profit or £365 to a £10 stake.

Last week looked tough on paper and this week looks only marginally better. Lets start in the States. This does not look the easiest task. Pick a winner in a pro am on poor greens when playing round three fairly different courses. The weather forecast is set fair until Sunday so we have one thing going for us. The only other problem is Dustin Johnson. He is double defending champion here and put in a great showing at the US Open here too. No wonder he is a hot favourite at 7/1. This is too short for me. He opened with a 65 last week then fell away sharply. Nobody has won this 3 times in a row in its 74 year history, although showing an uncanny pattern of repeat winners. He is still a pass.

Mickelson will have his supporters and rightly so, he looks in good form and does well here. 17/2 is tight for someone who can throw inconsistent in as another variable. So who do we back? My shortlist is (was Dustin Johnson) Tim Clark, Bryan Gay, Jonathon Byrd, D. A. Points, Vaughn Taylor and Brandt Snedeker. I am looking for a greens in reg man who like Poa Annau greens and can handle pro am formats. Tim Clark is back after three weeks off, recovering from blisters on his heels. He would be a bet if he were 33+/1 but at only 20’s I will be swerving him this week. Bryan Gay and Jonathon Bryd fit into my outsider/horses for courses type players but they pair the two at 40/1, way too short. So that leaves us with three.

D. A. Points gave us a good run for our money last week, 80/1 is a shorter price than last week but his performance justifies it. He is in again. Brandt Snedeker is 33/1 which appears short enough, especially considering he has never recorded a top 20 here. He is at least -2 for every round he has played this year and I fancy him to get involved here. His bubbly demeanour lends itself to the pro am format and he is very much a confidence player. He is our second pick. Finally, Vaughn Taylor. He retains his price of 125/1 and is still playing great stuff. His break through week cannot be far away.

So, to Dubai. What a great event this looks. World number 1,2 and 3 in attendance. My gut instinct was get on Woods, and I think he may be a good thing. Then I saw Westwood and thought exactly the same thing. I did not have that feeling about the favourite Martin Kaymer. I don’t know why as his desert pedigree is incredible (no doubt due to his winters in Arizona), his record on the European Tour is incredible (won 4 of his last 9) and his record in this event is incredible (a second and two fourths in 3 attempts). Still I can’t bring myself to back him and perhaps I never will, perhaps to my financial cost. Mcilroy is 7/1, very best price, way too short in a field like this, even accounting for his 2nd place in Abu Dhabi and superb course form.

So I am torn between Woods and Westwood as my main Dubai pick. Woods can definitely win this but the deciding factor is that Westwood is twice the price at 12/1. He has been practicing in Dubai already in 2011 and was back practicing early last week after missing the cut in Qatar. Yes, his form has not been great but this is the clash he relishes, against Woods. As it is competitive up top I will take him each way as well. If I was looking for another reason to pick Westwood over Woods it would be there in the stats again. At the Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines, a venue he has never shot over par at before he was 119th in greens in regulation, a stat he led in the ’08 season and 172nd in driving accuracy out of 184. He ranked 108th in putting. He needs a big step up to win here in hindsight.

Jimenez is 33/1. For the defending champion this is a fair price and he seems to be making all the right noises each week without getting in the mix. I like his chances here, he says he is playing great, gets a new putter this week and he is too experienced to get mixed up in the ‘big 4’ circus.

To mop a little value elsewhere lets have a go on Ross Mcgowan at 200/1. He lives in Dubai, has been working on his general fitness and is enjoying full recovery from the injury that plagued him in 2010. He has gone well in Dubai before and has no fear. Finally, I want to have Wattel in the staking plan again. 200/1 is a good price and I think if we can keep getting these sorts of prices about him it will not be long until we are handsomely rewarded.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

1pt each way Brandt Snedeker @ 33/1
1pt each way D A Points @ 80/1
0.5pts each way Vaughn Taylor @ 125/1

Dubai Desert Classic
2pts each way Lee Westwood @ 12/1
1pt each way Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 33/1
0.5pts Romain Wattel @ 200/1
0.5pts Ross Mcgowan @ 200/1

2011 running total +36.5 pts This weeks investment 13 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

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