UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 September 2010 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship

We started the Barclays Championship with a running total of +91.7pts for the year. Kuchar finally came through for a win at 40/1. He returned a 75pt profit and with Striker getting placed at 20/1 a further 10pt profit, it made it an exceptional week. Charlie finally got the golden ticket! So we now run at a 171.7 point profit or £1717 to a £10 stake.

Last week was a poor betting heat, with Woods and Mickelson underperforming so badly all the prices were compressed and it was difficult to find any value in the field with Striker and Kuchar now going off at 12/1 and 20/1, way too short.

This week looks a little better as Woods showed signs of regaining form last week finishing in 11th and has an incredible record at this weeks venue, Cog Hill. He has 5 wins at Cog Hill and with only 7 bogies last week he is a consideration at 6/1, but that is still too short for me. This could be the week for a big priced outsider as there is no cut, a limited field and aggressive play can be rewarded. Also to consider are the Ryder Cup wildcard picks. They traditionally perform exceptionally well after getting selected and Cink has proved this twice before.

I have a list of 11 players on my shortlist. I am going to refuse to back Stewart Cink, I feel like I should back him for many reasons but I am not going to. He has 4 top 20's in a row, finished T4, T7 and T23 in his last 3 starts at Cog Hill and has won and lost in a playoff in the first event after his previous two wildcard picks. Tempting @ 55/1 but no.

I also like Charlie Hoffman. A great win last week, an incredible final day 62 but I think that will have taken a lot out of him and I am going to turn down the still generous 60/1. Striker and Kuchar have got huge chances this week but too short for me at 14/1 and 25/1 respectively. Same with Casey, he is due a big week and could hammer home the point to Monty that he deserved a pick but 33/1 is a bit tight. Adam Scott has finally found some serious form, 3 top 10's in his last 4 starts and most importantly he was 6th in putting last week. When he putts well he is as good as anyone in the world but he is priced up accordingly, 20/1 is too short.

Ben Crane is the 1st selection. He missed the cut last week but still sits 2nd in all round ranking. His solid long game and excellent putting can be rewarded here and he needs a big week to continue his Fedex Cup participation. He is a fair price at 110/1.

Bubba Watson is a speculative punt. He is not a much bigger price than Cink and perhaps Cink has better credentials going into this event. However, I feel Watson should be a little more settled now after a big USPGA performance and can go well at 66/1. It is not a course where long hitting and shot shaping are of importance but he is 23rd in greens in regulation and 5th in all round ranking. He has finished top 20 in his two starts at Cog Hill but like I said, a speculative punt.

Brendon De Jonge is my final selection at 200/1. He has confirmed himself on tour this year as a consistent performer who sits 9th in all round ranking, 13th in greens in regulation and 26th in scoring average. He is a big price and fits the profile of a player to go well here.

BMW Championship

1.5pts each way Ben Crane @ 110/1
1pt each way Bubba Watson @ 66/1
1.5pts each way Brendon De Jonge @ 200/1
UPDATE: I have to put Matt Kuchar in, great form and won US Amateur here....
2pts each way Matt Kuchar @ 25/1

Running Total - +171.7pts