UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 November 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

OHL Classic and Nedbank Golf Challenge

A good week last week, Patrick Cantlay won his first PGA Tour event in a 3 man playoff. He was fortunate to a degree, with tough conditions helping players like (the impressive) JJ Spaun fall apart down the stretch. A wins a win and we bagged a 100 point profit.

Elsewhere Stenson let us down. For someone I consider to be a solid golfer, he has had a lot of poor weeks in 2017 and we got him on another. Still, this may help his price for Dubai in a couple of weeks.

On to this week. Lets go to South Africa first for the Nedbank at Sun City.

This is a good betting heat that is very competitive up top. This is mainly thanks to Victor Dubuisson being priced up at 40/1, 33/1 with Skybet. I just don't understand the price. He played ok in Portugal and well at the Dunhill Links, but most of his starts, when he decides to play, have been awful and full of retirements. He should be 100/1+.

Hatton is favourite and looks priced correctly at 14/1. The early 16/1 was taken quickly and fair play to those beady eyed early birds but there isn't much in the price. I would have Fleetwood and Fisher right by him at 16/1 and they both look decent value at 20/1. In behind these I would have Schwartzel and Noren at 20/1, you can have 25/1 about them both. Grace, Uihlein and Fitzpatrick all look overrated at 16/1, 30/1 and 16/1 respectively. I also think Louis should be nearer 25/1 than 16/1.

Although some of these players offer decent opportunities none of them offer quite enough to make them bets at this stage. Fleetwood, Fisher, Schwartzel and Noren offer the best value at the top of the market. Further down Levy can be backed at 60/1, I make him 40/1. I need to get to triple digits before finding my first bet this week.

Back Mike Lorenzo-Vera at 175/1, I make him 60/1. Compare his form with Victor's and you can't believe they aren't priced the other way around. I am going to take another chance on Hideto Tanihara at 200/1. Asian players go well at Sun City, he is a much better player than a 200/1 chance in this field. He should be around 66/1. I am tempted by Matt Wallace at 125/1, I would have him at 80/1, but he can be wayward from the tee which doesn't work so well at Sun City, you have to hit fairways. Sterne is a little the same, 100/1 about him in South Africa has to always be considered, but he is very hit and miss and there's not much difference in the 80/1 that I make him and the 100/1 available.

It is weird how most by bets revolve around the French players. Dubuisson's artificial strength, other Frenchmen's value. Much of Victor's price has to be based on his Dunhill Links 3rd place, Bourdy finished 4th there. Take the 200/1, I make him 80/1.

Finally let's take a chance with Ryan Fox. He has been rough for the last month or so but consider his 6th in the French Open, 4th in the Irish Open and 4th in the Scottish Open, which he gathered in consecutive weeks this summer making him the 'must bet' for The Open, is now available at 200/1. Like Tanihara, we know any return to form would make a mockery of this price. Even with this poor recent form he would be nearer 80/1 in my book.

The PGA Tour are in Mexico this week for the OHL Classic. Accurate ball strikers with a fair bit of experience appear to revel on this course. You will see the names of Funk, Mark Wilson, Beckman and McDowell already on this trophy. I can't resist trying to buck this trend, Fowler is a very good wind player, is the standalone class in this field and looks seriously overpriced.

When the market opened he was 10/1, I managed to get a fair bit on at that price. He is now best price 9/1 with the exception of the jokers at BWin, who call themselves bookmakers but refuse to lay any sort of bet on any market. They have laid me one bet ever, which lost, and they won't lay me again! Anyway, 9/1 is still too big, I have Fowler at 11/2 and strongly recommend a bet on him this week.

There are bits of value around Fowler too. I think Charley Hoffman is too big at 28/1 and Chappell to big at 30/1, I would have them both at 20/1. I think Hadley (22/1, I would be 66/1), Dechambeau (40/1 - 90/1) and McDowell (40/1 - 90/1) are the worst value.

Outside of Fowler I am going to back Sunghoon Kang who I have at 33/1 so am happy to take 80/1. He finished 3rd three weeks ago in the CIMB and was runner up in Houston. He works the ball, shapes all the shots, he should go well in the wind if it blows.

Jhonattan Vegas also plays well in the wind. He finished 4th at last season's Honda, 10th here last year and won in Canada not long ago. 80/1 about a 40/1 chance, worth chancing.

My final bet is a little more profile related. David Lingmerth has been very up and down of late but he is a steady ball striker. This sets up well for him and 100/1 is big. I would have him at 45/1.

OHL Classic - Outright

11.2 points win Rickie Fowler @ 9/1 (-11.2)
1.25 points each way Sunghoon Kang @ 80/1 (-2.5)
1.25 points each way Jhonattan Vegas @ 80/1 (-2.5)
1 point each way David Lingmerth @ 100/1 (-2)

Nedbank Golf Challenge - Outright

0.58 points each way Mike Lorenzo-Vera @ 175/1 (-1.06)
0.5 points each way Hideto Tanihara @ 200/1 (-1)
0.5 points each way Gregory Bourdy @ 200/1 (-1)
0.5 points each way Ryan Fox @ 200/1 (-1)

This week's P&L = -22.36
This week’s investment = 22.36 points

This week's Outright P&L =-22.36
This weeks's Outright Investment = 22.36 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L =
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment =

2017 Total P&L = +75.71
2017 Total Investment =  1426.8 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  +15.42
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 708.1 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +60.29
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 797.9 points

2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.