UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 August 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

USPGA Championship

Bo Van Pelt would be an awesome bet every week if they paid out the first ten places. We are still in front with him and he is fun to follow as he seems to get himself in position every week but seriously struggles to get it done on Sunday. I think it is important we keep with him as players like Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar and Jason Dufner had very similar struggles but when they finally broke through we enjoyed healthy returns for our loyalty. Keegan Bradley made up for BVP’s frustrations. He won at 66/1 making us a today 82.5 points. We won 72 points on the week moving us up to +218.23 points for the year or £2182.30 to a £10 stake.

Jim Furyk did us big favour last week. Two brilliant opening rounds meant it was his tournament to lose. Amazingly it is now the 9th time he has lead after 36 holes and he has converted just one of them into a win. It was good for us but I was very surprised to hear that stat.

So on to this week. The USPGA at Kiawah Island. It is the 94th edition and the Ocean course at Kiawah is going to provide a tough test, especially if the wind gets up. The course is 7676 yards long and is the longest ever used in a Major. The wind is forecast as moderate and out of the southeast throughout meaning holes 1 and 14-18 will play down but 6 thru 13 will play into. 12 is a drivable par 4 but with the wind into it may not be drivable for everyone. It is definitely a week for the long hitters.

Frustratingly it is a really tough week to make picks as it is set to be an enthralling weeks golf. Last week there was a minefield of value picks and it was just identifying the right ones. This week it feels like you can make an argument against everyone. My shortlist comprises of
Crane 175/1, Woods 12/1, Bubba 35/1, Kuchar 40/1, Rose 35/1, Van Pelt 66/1, Dufner 28/1, Bradley 40/1, Zach Johnson 55/1 and Westwood 28/1.

I know
Dustin Johnson will be popular this week. He went to college at Coastal Carolina and will feel as comfortable here as anyone. He has the right game for Kiawah and has been in decent form since his ‘injury’ break/suspension at the start of the year. A lot of this has come from a massively improved short game but to me he is not the long game expert he used to be. At 25/1 I would much rather watch him than invest in him.

Woods was frustrating last week. I ended up going lumpy on him in a view to trade out. When he got to -3 thru 14 in round 1 I tried to dump £500 at 3/1 and got £55 matched. Ouch! He claims he is putting bad, and maybe there is a bit of that but he is not hitting it close much either. Look back through his rounds last week and see how many times he has 8 iron or less into greens and how few he gets inside 15ft. Not many. He is not hitting his irons and wedges close enough and is not holing out well enough to justify support at 12/1.

Ben Crane opened up with a tidy 66 last week to make our investment look like a wise one. He fizzled out quickly. He is playing well but not getting it done. This lay out is not ideal for him but you do see him pop up in Majors. I think we will back him as 175/1 looks too big and 125/1 for first round leader does not look bad value either.

Bubba Watson should like the look of this place. There are many similarities between Kiawah and Whistling Straits. Same designer, both long courses, both fairly lenient from the tee and both have a certain links style. He, as did Dustin Johnson, came very close 2 years ago at Whistling Straits. How Dustin is shorter than Bubba in the betting is mind boggling especially as 35/1 Bubba looks a little short. The slower greens (11.5 on the stimp) should suit him. In fact this is so perfect for him he becomes impossible to ignore. Bubba is a bet despite being tight enough in the betting.

Keegan Bradley can go well again this week especially if his biorhythms theory is correct! 40/1 puts him in at the same sort of prices as a lot of very good players and is just too short to back. I think he will go well but like Dustin Johnson he will be better watched than backed at the wrong price.

Justin Rose is interesting. He finished 5th last week after a slow first day. His stats are very tidy and there is no reason why he can’t get in the mix. He is hard for me to back though after his Open flop and at 35/1 there is not a lot of value in him, but again another who can not be discounted.

Matt Kuchar and Zach Johnson fit into the same category this week. Both are very fair prices with Kuchar at 40/1 and Zach Johnson at 55/1. They will both give their running and should be solid as ever but I am not sure either have the weapons for this layout. I think Jason Dufner also sneaks into their category. He does not putt as good as the other two but is better tee to green. For any of these three to contend they have to be right at the top of their game, everything firing, where as players like Bubba and Dustin can do it a little more easily.

Westwood, Westwood, Westwood…. oh what are you going to do this week
Lee Westwood. This is perfect for you. Slowish greens, your long enough, your good enough but are you playing well enough? You have just moved house, your recent form has been disappointing but are you going to bounce back this week? You have drifted out to 28/1 and if you are near your best this is a cracking price and we can back you each way for once but you did shoot 80 in round three at Firestone last week. Do I trust you? Do I believe in you enough to back you when you are not in form? Can you putt under the gun as you rank 175th in putting? I can’t answer these questions and there are a lot of questions there so I am going to have to leave you alone.

BVP, you are definitely a bet this week. 66/1? That is cracking value. It worries me a little that 8 top 10’s have only resulted in one top 3 this year but he is a player bang in form and very confident. He deserves his breakthrough and it could come here. He has gained valuable experience this year like playing with Woods down the stretch at Congressional etc. I like him as a player and I like his chances here at a very tidy price.

USPGA Championship

1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 66/1
2 pts each way Bubba Watson @ 35/1
0.5 pts each way Ben Crane @ 175/1


0.5 points each way Ben Crane to be 1st round leader @ 125/1

2012 running total +218.23 points. This weeks investment 9 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf