UA-33754892-1 Archives for 04 September 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship and KLM Open

BMW Championship - Outright

The rain forecast is going to make this a rerun of 2012. The Pete Dye course extends just over 7500 yards and will play soft. This means two things. The bombers have a huge advantage and the scoring will go deep.

Crooked Stick is one of Dye's first designs but has been tweaked a fair bit since 2012. The greens are also expected to run at 12.5 on the stimp. But the greens are small and when you look back at Rory's win in 2012, when Crooked Stick was last used as a venue, putting pretty much got nullified by the size of the greens. None of the top 8 finishers in 2012 were in the top 10 in putting but 8 of the top 11 (who made up the top 10) were in the top 10 of greens in regulation. 6 of the top 7 were in the top 10 of driving distance. Bomb it and hit your approaches close.

Another point to take forward from 2012 is Rory won the week before at TPC Boston, history can repeat!

Rory has a huge chance, obviously, especially with the boost of his first US win of the year last week. As I always say, he can come from behind or extend out in front to win but doesn't often do it when he's around the lead on the final day. For me Rory is too inconsistent to back at 11/2 in a quality field. He drives it good but that's about it at the moment.

Scott comes into this off back to back fourths. He is hitting it unreal and crushes everyone tee to green this season. This could be his week as putting kind of gets neutralised. However, you still got to hole a few to get to -20, which is probably what he has to do to win this.

Jason Day plays Pete Dye courses well, as we saw at Whistling Straits. I really fancied him last week but his poor driving continued and his wife and two children were involved in a car accident after round one, when a bus crashed into their car. They were ok but it must have served as quite a distraction for Day. I wouldn't discount him for this but it does not play to his strengths.

This set up does not suit Spieth either, who is playing better but his iron play needs to improve a lot to be competitive here. Dustin Johnson should love this as long as his mediocre short game doesn't cost him. I like Dustin but 10/1 is tight. Reed, Fowler, Casey, Rose and Moore should go well but are not exactly exciting prices.

Mickelson is a fair price at 40/1. He has not quite been firing of late, but in 2012 shot 64 in the third round here en route to a tie for 2nd. It sets up well for him and he ranks 12th in strokes gained approach which is 7th in this field. Those in front, bar Scott, have serious flaws elsewhere in their games. I like Phil to bounce back after a missed cut last week.

BMW Championship Outright

2.5 points each way Adam Scott @ 16/1 (0)

1 point each way Phil Mickelson @ 40/1 (-2)

KLM Open - Outright

It is hard to see past the form pair of Thomas Pieters and Alexander Noren for this. 17/2 and 9/1 respectively is not great value. I am going to take a chance on 3 players at tastier prices who are in good form and have a chance.

0.75 points each way Romain Langasque @ 50/1 (-1.5)
0.75 points each way Rich Bland @ 50/1 (-1.5)
0.5 points each way Dean Burmester @ 125/1 (-1.5)

This week's P&L = -6.5
This week’s investment = 11 points

This week's Outright P&L = -6.5
This weeks's Outright Investment = 11 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L =
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 0 points

2016 Total P&L = -110.04 points

2016 Total Investment =  1127.9 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -30.75 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 294.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -79.09 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 838.4 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.