UA-33754892-1 Archives for 03 March 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Qatar Masters and Arnold Palmer Invitational

Qatar Masters - In running after round 3

0.25 units Jake McLeod @ 22/1 (-0.25)

Arnold Palmer Invitational - In Running after Round 1

0.25 units Francesco Molinari @ 25/1 (+6.25)
0.25 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 16/1 (-0.25)

That is four second place finishes in four consecutive weeks. It's not all bad news, it shows the picks are the right picks and we're still profiting from the places. More gutting last week were the near misses in Oman. JB Hansen making bogey up the 72nd to miss out on a 25/1 top 5 finish. He was leading most the week too. 2.5 units on De Jager to finish top 20 @ 15/2, he finished 23rd. 2.25 units on Borda to finish top 20 @ 25/1, finished 23rd. 1.5 units on Lawson top 20 @ 9/1, finished 23rd. Very, very close to a huge week. Still a winning week.

One other point of business before we move on to this week. I may well stop tipping top 5,10,20 markets. What do you think? Over the last few weeks we have made very nice returns from these, but it seems increasingly pointless as getting a bet on with any book at a fair price is almost impossible. I am sure you find the same issue. I am having to split stakes in fifths or more and spread across multiple books to get enough on. I find it incredible books are allowed to advertise prices and only accept £15 or £20 on them. I am talking about multi billion pound businesses that refuse to have a liability of more than £100 or £150 on a major tour golf bet. It is disgusting and needs regulating. The (false) prices suck people in, you deposit your money, can't have a bet and have to wait days to get that money back. Old school bookies and the original founders of these firms would and should be ashamed. In Australia if a book advertises a price they are required legally to lay it to lose a minimum of AUS $5000 if required. In this country there are very, very few books that aren't just fiddling and encouraging everyone to bet in multiples. Offering ridiculous new customer offers to get their customer numbers up and in turn their share price. As punters, we should boycott the corporate books and find honest and fair independents. They tend to offer better service and lay fairer wagers anyway.

Qatar Masters

Doha Golf Club is 7374 yards and has the same designer as Abu Dhabi. It is another exposed, desert links, like last week. The main protection is the wind, which is usually stronger in the afternoons. Good iron players appear to go best, especially those who are comfortable in the wind. Length, like most weeks, is a good advantage to have.

Justin Harding should go well again. South African's like Aiken and Coetzee have great records here. Harding is a good wind player, and should be forgiven the missed cut last week, he did get the worst of the conditions and delays. Abu Dhabi form crosses over well to this event, players like Kaymer impressing in both, due to similar design and conditions. 8-11-4-mc-mc coming into this and on debut here, I would be 20/1 so 55/1 appeals. 60 on the machine.

In the top 20 market I am sticking with many of the ones that came so close for us last week. They seem very fairly priced again, despite a little more strength in this line up.

Borda finished 23rd last week and is 25/1 to slip inside the top 20 this week. This is huge and should be taken.

Louis De Jager also finished 23rd last week and the talented South African can go even better in Qatar. He won the Eye of Africa 4 starts ago, then missed two cuts before a return to form last week. As I mentioned last week, if he makes playing outside of Africa feel as comfortable as when playing in Africa he will win a lot. Last week showed he is getting more comfortable, 8/1 is very fair.

Charlie Saxon is a bit of a gamble. The American played on the PGA China Tour last year and now on the Web. He finished 17th on the Web on his last start and reeled off 4 wins and 11 top 10s in his 20 starts in 2018, impressive numbers at any level. He obviously can play. Worth chancing 10/1 about a top 20 finish,

Finally in Doha, we'll go again on Adri Arnaus. The Spaniard played some great stuff last week, but dropped plenty either side of the restarts. Often rookies really struggle with stop start weeks like this. His 63rd should be ignored a little and perhaps concentrate more on his previous, strong desert form.

To Win

0.25 units Justin Harding @ 55/1 (+13.75)

Top 5

1 unit Justin Harding @ 11/1 (+11)

Top 10

1.5 units Justin Harding @ 11/2 (+8.25)

Top 20

2.5 units David Borda @ 25/1 (-2.5)
2.75 units Justing Harding @ 3/1 (+8.25)
2 units Louis De Jager @ 8/1 (-2)
1.75 units Charlie Saxon @ 10/1 (-1.75)
2 units Adri Arnaus @ 4/1 (+8)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

no bets

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Back to Bay Hill once again. Not much has changed. The rough is a touch longer as a new irrigation system can water the primary rough a little more efficiently, and one tee has moved back 35 yards. All in, not much to worry about. The winner here won't have to be an accurate driver, length is more preferable, so one can take advantage of the scoreable par 5s. The par 3s are long and difficult. All in, strong approach work but especially putting are key here.

Few putt better than Fowler. He is also long and a good driver of the ball. He is coming into this off a win (Phoenix), 36th (Mexico where the course wasn't a good fit for him) and 2nd last week at The Honda. He also boasts a pair of top 15s the last two years at Arnie's place. You can take 14/1 generally, I would be 9/1 and he is 16.5 on the machine.

I like Rose for a top 5. He has decent course form (3-15-2-mc-9-13-3) and recent form of 1-mc before a month off. We can now call Rose a good putter, one thing I never thought I would say, but he has worked hard, experimented, committed and turned it into a strength. He is ultra consistent and it is hard to see him not finishing in the top 20 or better.

Marc Leishman has 3 top 5s in his last 3 starts. Win and 7th are his last two results at Bay Hill. 7/2 a top 10 looks a fair price, I would be 13/5.

Molinari is another ultra consistent performer. He has 3 top 10 finishes at Bay Hill in 6 starts. He finished 17th in Mexico when returning from a long break. The course doesn't set up too well for him but 6/4 a top 20 looks a fair price.

Patrick Reed appears to be a little off of late and rather unlike him, has stuck it firmly in reverse a couple of times recently on a Sunday. This is uncharacteristic of him. He has still recorded 3 top 20s in his last 6 starts. 7/4 about another here is worth taking. He finished 7th last year.

Kevin Na likes golf in Florida, where he has a great record, and he has a very decent history here too. At Bay Hill he has 3 top 5s in his last 7 starts. Recent form is poor after a return from a wrist injury. He has an underestimated long game can get near the top of the board again. 14/1 a top 10 is tempting, 5/1 a top 20 a little more realistic.

Finally Matt Wallace looks to be one who fits the profile perfectively. He is long and a great putter. He should be acclimatised and a little more used to the PGA Tour life after last week. 9/2 a top 20 seems worth taking.

To Win

0.5 units Rickie Fowler @ 14/1 (-0.5)

Top 5

0.75 units Justin Rose @ 11/4 (-0.75)

Top 10

2.25 units Justin Rose @ 11/8 (-2.25)
1 unit Rickie Fowler @ 6/4 (-1)
0.75 units Marc Leishman @ 7/2 (-0.75)

Top 20

4.25 units Justin Rose @ 4/6 (-4.25)
2 units Francesco Molinari @ 6/4 (+3)
1.5 units Patrick Reed @ 7/4 (-1.5)
0.5 unit Matt Wallace @ 9/2 (+2.25)
1 unit Kevin Na @ 5/1 (-1)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

No bet

This week's P&L = +42
This week’s investment = 29 units

This week's Outright P&L = +36.25
This weeks's Outright Investment = 28.25 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +5.75
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 0.75 units

2019 Total P&L = +79.46 units

2019 Total Investment = 191.25 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +70.67 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 167.25 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +8.79 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 65.5 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.