UA-33754892-1 Archives for 03 June 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

FedEx St Jude

Two disappointing betting heats this week. In Austria for the 'Shot Clock' it is a very weak field, which normally gives opportunity. However, I am going to sit out as I am unsure how the format is going to effect players. I mean, it is almost more on the caddies than the players, best left alone and watched for now.

I do wish Europe would just stick to the proven format. I do not watch golf sixes, have no interest in 9 hole matchplay and I don't want to see someone lose a tournament by not playing quick enough. It is not just me that feels this way.

In the FedEx Sty Jude we have a decent line up. The top three in the betting all look like good bets and fair value. Dustin you can back at 8 and I make him 5. Koepka you can take 11 and I am 7. Stenson 17 and I would be 9. There is not huge depth in the field but the difficulty is splitting one of these away from the other two. For me there isn't one of the three that really stands out so I will leave them alone for now and hope to back one at a better price during the week.

The only bet I fancied in the outright market was Lucas Glover. 150/1 was a big price despite his domestic problems. However he has withdrawn so the outright market is left alone for now.

From a value perspective Marty Dou Ze-Cheng @ 951, Tyler Duncan @ 651, Martin Flores @ 451 and Scott Brown @ 501 could be worth a few shillings for an interest.

In the top 5 market I also liked Glover. The only other for consideration was Ze-Cheng @ 101 (I would be 51) but this is a big ask for a player bang out of form. Same story for the top 10 market.

The top 20 market is a more realistic goal for some of the value punts. Here I think we can back Ze-Cheng and Mackenzie Hughes. Ze-Cheng is 26 and I would be nearer 9. Hughes, another out of form player who has shown little bits of hope the last few weeks is 12, and I would be 6.

First round leader is another better opportunity to back out of form players. They are much more likely to hold form for one day rather than four. We will back a few here for minimum stakes.

All in, not a great week for golf punting.

FedEx St Jude

To Win

No bet

Top 5

no bet

Top 10

no bet

Top 20

2.77 points Marty Dou Ze-Cheng @ 26 (-2.77)
2.62 points Mackenzie Hughes @ 13 (-2.62)

First Round Leader

2.00 points Marty Dou Ze-Cheng @ 111 (-2)
2.00 points Tyler Duncan @ 86 (-2)
2.00 points Sunghoon Kang @ 176 (-2)
2.00 points Grayson Murray @ 101 (-2)
2.00 points Zhang Xin-Jun @ 301 (-2)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

100.00 points Daniel Berger to beat Billy Herschel @ 1.83 (-100)
63.93 points Henrik Stenson to beat Phil Mickelson @ 1.83 (-63.93)

2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 208.24 points

This week's P&L = -179.93
This week’s investment = 179.32 points

This week's Outright P&L = -5.39
This weeks's Outright Investment = 5.39 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -173.93
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 173.93 points

2018 Total P&L = -761.76

2018 Total Investment = 14146.97 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = +121.06
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 6477.45 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -912.21
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 7949.87 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.