UA-33754892-1 Archives for 03 February 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Vic Open

Vic Open - In running after 3 rounds

To Win

0.75 units Wade Ormsby @ 9/4 (-0.75)
0.5 units Brad Kennedy @ 12/1 (-0.5)

Vic Open - In running after 2 rounds

To Win

0.5 units Nick Flanagan @ 10/1 (-0.5)
0.5 units Brad Kennedy @ 18/1 (-0.5)

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Not much tine this week so I will be brief.

I have played Pebble and Spyglass a number of times and will be back there in again in June, which I very much look forward to. This week will be fun to watch and only increase the anticipation.

Anyway, three short courses in the rotation. As usual in pro-ams, the courses are set up to play easy to help them get round in less than 7 hours. Pebble may be the toughest as it is the most exposed and the rough has been left to grow in preparation for this years US Open.

The weather could be a determining factor this week. Storms have hit the Monterey Peninsula the past few days flooding the course, damaging temporary structures and tearing up trees. The courses, fortunately, have remained relatively unaffected.

All three courses this week have a similar theme. They are short, little importance placed on driving the ball, small pot greens that are hard to find and hard to putt. Old courses like these were built for easy maintenance and with slower greens in mind. Small targets with big slopes. Designers don't build greens like this anymore as they want fast greens, so tend to build larger targets with flat sections accommodating pin positions on faster surfaces. Indeed, these greens, already rain sodden, will get wetter on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Expect, slow and bumpy greens throughout.

So this brings me nicely onto my pick for the week. Paul Casey. With everyone struggling on the greens his weakness is negated. Few rival him tee to green and the ultra constant Englishman will know how to cope with cold wet weather. After all, he grew up here!

He is a top 20 machine and already boasts 4 in 5 this year including a solo second in Singapore in a pretty decent field. He finished 8th here last year.

I also like Dustin and Fleetwood in the win market. Dustin has incredible form at Pebble and in this event. He was deadly in Saudi last week. I am just a little reluctant to take 6/1 after his long travels in this bad weather. Fleetwood is on debut here and did not play great in the desert the last few weeks, where he normally thrives. For this reason, it is a no from me.

I am taking Casey in all the markets, win, top 5, top 10 and top 20. Others that made the shortlist and represent value were Top 5 - DJ @ 13/8, Fleetwood @ 6/1, Finau @ 5/1. Top 10 - Fleetwood @ 3/1, Finau @ 5/2, Cantlay @ 11/4. Top 20 - Fleetwood @ 11/8, Finau @ 11/10, Cantlay @ 5/4.

To Win

0.5 units Paul Casey @ 33/1 (-0.5)

Top 5

2 units Paul Casey @ 7/1 (+14)

Top 10

3 units Paul Casey @ 7/2 (+10.5)

Top 20

4 units Paul Casey @ 11/8 (+5.5)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

3 points Paul Casey to bt Adam Scott @ 4/5 (+2.4)

Vic Open.

I really don't know much about this event. It is a first time co-sanctioned event with the Aussie Tour and played at Beach Golf Links over two courses, The Beach and The Creek. Winning scores, when just an Aussie event range from -7 to -16 so one can imagine the wind plays a factor. Video and images suggest the par 3s look good and there is rough, although the course appears to be wide enough to accommodate the wind.

Past winners have been short hitters like Matt Griffin and Rich Green, with other shorties like Matt Millar going well too. Long hitters like Dimi Papadatos have also won, so there is no bias here, although the courses are public and fairly short.

I am going to make a play on Jazz Janewattananond on the basis that the wind doesn't pump and his Asian form travels East. He beat a very good field including Casey, Fitzpatrick and Garcia in Singapore and his Asian form is top class, although he has struggled to reproduce this cross continent. He is young and has bags of potential. One feels it is just a matter of time before it clicks overseas. He certainly won't feel out of place in this line up, it is weak. 22/1 appears fair.

In the win market I like David Borda at 400/1. The big hitting Spaniard is a rookie on Tour having come through Tour School, but has won well at lower levels. He has had a break since South Africa before Christmas, he will see this as a good opportunity on courses similar to ones he has played well on before. The price is appealing but I would suggest a top 20 bet is more realistic and still offers great value.

I liked Nick Voke too, before he became a non runner!

I'll take Jazz again in the Top 5 market @ 5/1 and add in Justin Harding. Harding is now 73rd in the world and nobody knows him. He had a chance, and perhaps should have won in Mauritius. He has incredible SA form and leads their order of merit. He finished 8th in Dubai and 11th in Saudi. This field is nothing like those and he can take his chance here in the wind he thrives in. 13/2 about a top 5 is very fair.

In the top 10 market I liked the amateur David Micheluzzi @ 11/1. He came 5th on his last start but has form of mc-33-33 here which is a little off putting.

Take David Borda for the Top 20 market at 14/1. His scores have a very low standard deviation, he is a consistent, good player. It will be interesting how he takes his play up a level, you never know how comfortable a player will feel, but I think he is worth a play at this price. He will need to take advantage of weeks like this if he wants a chance to keep a card for next year. It is not a Tour School friendly tour.

Jake McLeod is worth a bet too in the top 20 market. He finished 2nd here last year and posted a win and a second just before Christmas. He can go well again. 5/2 is fair enough.

Vic Open

To win

0.25 points Jazz Janewattananond @ 22/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.75 units Jazz Janewattananond @ 5/1 (-0.75)
0.5 units Justin Harding @ 13/2 (+3.25)

Top 10

No bet

Top 20

3 units David Borda @ 14/1 (-3)
1.25 units Jake McLeod @ 5/2 (-1.25)

72 Hole Match Bet - (with Skybet tie no bet)

2 units Justin Harding to beat Scott Hend @ 4/5 (+1.6)
2 units Jazz Janewattananond to beat Lucas Herbert @ 10/11 (+1.82)
1.25 units Ryan Fox to beat Jason Scrivner @ 5/6 (-1.25)

This week's P&L = +29.82
This week’s investment = 25.75 units

This week's Outright P&L = +27.5
This weeks's Outright Investment = 15.25 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +2.32
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 10.5 units

2019 Total P&L = 14.02 units

2019 Total Investment = 123.75 unites

2019 Outright Bets P&L = 10.98 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 74.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = 3.04 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 51.5 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.