UA-33754892-1 Archives for 02 September 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship and Omega European Masters

BMW Championship - In Running after round 3

To Win

0.25 points Rickie Fowler @ 10 (-0.25)
0.4 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 10.5 (-0.4)
0.4 points Justin Rose @ 3.25 (-0.4)

Omega European Masters - In Running after round 3

To win

0.25 points Hiedeto Tanihara @ 100 (-0.25)

Omega European Masters - In Running after round 2

To win

0.25 points Mike Lorenzo-Vera @ 26 (-0.25)
0.4 points Hiedeto Tanihara @ 9 (-0.4)

BMW Championship - In Running after round 2

To Win

0.4 points Rickie Fowler @ 11.5 (-0.4)

Omega European Masters - In Running after round 1

To win

0.25 points Andy Sullivan @ 15 (-0.25)
0.25 points Thomas Pieters @ 17 (-0.25)
0.25 points Hiedeto Tanihara @ 29 (-0.25)

BMW Championship - In Running after round 1

To Win

0.25 points Rickie Fowler @ 21 (-0.25)
0.25 points Justin Thomas @ 9 (-0.25)

Omega European Masters

I am not a huge fan of this event as a betting proposition. It is a funny little, mountain course which produces 'horses for courses' outcomes. A number of players live on site and for me it is generally one to avoid, as horses for courses players are not easy to miss. However, I am going to make a couple of small plays on quality players that do not fit the profile of a 'normal' Crans winner. Ideally you are looking for accurate players but maybe more key is a very accurate wedge game and hot putter. Jimenez is a player who goes well here, lives here and he is fairly priced, but not quite fair enough to make him a bet.

I am going to side with three players who are more known for power and long game, but they have class, and hopefully enough class to adjust to this course.

To Win

0.25 points Ross Fisher @ 41(-0.25)
0.25 points Ryan Fox @ 34 (-0.25)
0.25 points Thomas Pieters @ 23 (-0.25)

Top 5
0.4 points Ross Fisher @ 9 (-0.25)
0.4 points Ryan Fox @ 8 (-0.25)

Top 10
no bet

Top 20
no bet

First Round Leader

no bet

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)
0.48 points Lorenzo Vera to beat Bjork @ 1.83 (+0.4)
0.6 points Dunne to beat Rock @ 1.83 (+0.5)
0.6 points Detry to beat Pavan @ 1.83 (-0.6)
2.41 points Wood to beat Willett @ 1.83 (+2)

BMW Championship
This is the third event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and for the third time we have a Gill Hanse golf course to consider. This one has only been touched upped and tweaked by his Hanse (boom boom) but it has changed a fair bit since the Quicken Loans National was hosted here for the last time in 2011.

The fairways are wider, the greens bigger and more undulating. There are more pin positions and the surfaces quicker. Most notably is the increase of bunker, there are now 176 bunkers, that's 102 more than 2011. This will suit the ball strikers and shot shapers.

I think Dustin, who we have backed a lot recently with little joy, should go well again. The added width and increased premium on accurate irons should serve him well and he is putting just fine. Rickie Fowler I think is really undervalued by the market. I assume this is all down to his recent oblique injury issues but with coach Nos, perhaps the best in the business on his fitness team, no risks will be taken with the Ryder Cup etc just around the corner. He was due back last week but took an extra week to make sure. I would have Fowler sub 20/1, he is 33/1 and 40/1 on Betfair. This is too big for a class player who needs a big week to see himself through to the Tour Champs. The big greens will suit one of the best putters in the world, we have seen how good his imagination is on links when having to deal with long, big breaking putts. I expect a big week from him after a good rest.

To Win

0.25 points Dustin Johnson @ 10 (-0.25)
0.25 points Rickie Fowler @ 34 (-0.25)

Top 5
0.4 points Rickie Fowler @ 7 (-0.25)

Top 10
1 point Rickie Fowler @ 4 (+3)

Top 20
No Bet

First Round Leader
0.25 points Rickie Fowler @ 46 (-0.25)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)
1.2 points Rickie Fowler to beat Tiger Woods @ 1.83 (-1.2)
0.48 points Justin Thomas to beat Brooks Koepka @ 1.83 (+0.4)

This week's P&L = -1.35
This week’s investment = 9.47 points

This week's Outright P&L =  +0.75 points
This weeks's Outright Investment = 3.45 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -2.1 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 6.02 points

2018 Total P&L =  -102.56 points

2018 Total Investment = 1827.34 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
-28.03 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 877.24 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -74.26 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 949.6 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan.  Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.  

It is important to focus on bet size.  It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.  

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide.  So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection.  Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year.  The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account.  This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more.  Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones.  It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated.  The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested.  The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.