UA-33754892-1 Archives for 02 February 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Joburg Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Joburg Open

An event to leave alone. 200+ tee it up and there is a very strong favourite in Schwartzel. The front five in the market warrant a lot of respect but still it is hard to find value lower down. I was looking at players like Paul Waring and expecting to see at least 100/1+, he is 50/1! Drysdale, who has a strong record in the event but no decent form of late could have been a sneaky outsider but makes very little appeal at 66/1. Even our friend Stone is 100/1. There is one who looks a little overpriced and thats Marco Crespi. 250/1 is a little big and worth a small interest. This may be a little long for him if it is wet, but nobody hits it straighter. He hits his driver like he is throwing it underarm! But he can definitely play.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

This event has a reputation as a horses for courses type event, but in fact it is more of a horses for a tournament type event, as there are three courses in the rotation. Players like Mark O’ Meara and Dustin Johnson have great records here but there is little connection to be made between them. I think you have to find a laid back player who can handle the pro-celebrity format. There is not a huge emphasis on driving on any of the courses as the rough will be set up to accommodate the amateurs. Pebble has small greens so accurate iron play will be rewarded for the two rounds there. In fact, if you look at last years winner, Snedeker, he ranked 6th in greens in regulation, the stat leader was Jason Day who finished 6th. GIR was the strongest stat from last year’s event. The other thing to look at is the amount of winners who carry recent form into this event. For example, Snedeker had finished 2nd in his previous two starts before winning here. A boring fact for you, Couples was the last player before Snedker to finish 2nd, 2nd, 1st in consecutive events and that was in 1992.

There are the obvious contenders at the top of the market and one of those is Jason Day. Everyone loves him and they can’t wait for him to start winning big events like it is inevitable. He is a good player for sure but I won’t be backing him at 11/1 here. The forecast is good but if it does get windy he has the highest ball flight on tour and the coastal weather this time of year can be unpredictable.

I like six players at the prices. Jason Bohn at 150/1, Ryan Palmer @ 50/1, Brendon Todd at 70/1, John Senden at 125/1, Kevin Stadler at 50/1 and Will MacKenzie at 80/1.

Bohn is a big price at 150/1 considering he already has a 2nd and a 3rd in the 2014 season. He ranks 39th in greens which is ok and his other stats are pretty solid. My only worry is you have to go all the way back to 2006 for his best finish and that is only a 23rd place finish. Tempting but I am going to decline. It is a big price though!

Ryan Palmer is an interesting one. He is as big as 55/1 with a couple of firms and as short as 33/1 with Coral. I have to agree with Coral, 50/1 or bigger is too big. His best finishes here are not great, 23rd in ’06 and 29th in ’12 and he only ranks 69th in greens but he finished 8th three starts ago, 2nd two starts ago and 48th last week. 48th looks average but 76, 64 to make the cut shows he is still firing. 50/1 is worth a nibble.

Brendon Todd is not a huge price but has a lot going for him. He ranks 15th in greens, 17th in putting and 8th in scoring. He finished 6th in the Humana which is one of his four top 20’s in the 2014 season. He also finished 9th here in 2012. He is 80/1 in a couple of places but 70/1 is still fair.

John Senden we know is a great iron player but ranks down in 54th this season in GIR and also has nothing better than a 27th in 2010 to show on his cv here, although he does not use this as a regular stop. These negative facts are countered by the fact he ranks 5th in putting which is normally his Achilles heel and the fact he is available at 125/1, I would have made him nearer 80/1.

Kevin Stadler is a player we have invested in a number of times and despite the fact we were not on last week when he broke through, it is still reassuring to see we had identified a player capable of winning at a big price. Sometimes you just don’t get them on the right week and you can’t back them all every week. I put a line through him last week as the scoring goes low in Phoenix and he is a poor short range putter, making it difficult to keep up. The scoring did not go as deep as normal and the two guys with the worst putting strokes on Tour, Stadler and Bubba, fought out the title. He finished 3rd here last year and has a great game for these courses. 50/1 is a little tight and I am not sure he is the type of player to go back to back. He may ease into the background for a few weeks before winding it up again in time for his Augusta debut. A Major his father won.

My last pick is Will MacKenzie. 80/1 is a tidy price about a player whose 2014 season results are 9-15-mc-12-mc-13-7. If he plays 4 rounds he should be there or thereabouts! He ranks 20th in greens and his stats are so solid. After a couple of seasons on the he should be more than comfortable with a tournament played in pro am format.

Joburg Open

0.25 points each way Marco Crespi @ 250/1

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

1 pt each way Will Mackenzie @ 80/1
0.75 pts each way Ryan Palmer @ 50/1
0.75 pts each way Brendon Todd @ 70/1
0.5 pts each way John Senden @ 125/1

2014 running total = -21.5 points. This week’s investment 6.5 points. This weeks P&L = -6.5 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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