UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 November 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

HSBC Champions and Sanderson Farms Championship

At Tour School this week so just a brief preview.

HSBC Champions

I see Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson quite a long way clear for this. It appears to suit the bombers. Dustin won here in 2013, Bubba last year. Tim Clark, who lost in a playoff last year, and Poulter, who has gone well in both editions, counter that idea of thinking, but if you watch last years final round and you will see Clark hitting incredible approach shots with rescue clubs where Bubba is hitting 8 and 9 irons. It's certainly an easier test for the bombers.

I think 18/1 is fair about Bubba and Dustin. Dustin averages 4.9 shots better than the average round here and Bubba 3 better. The question marks are about their form. Bubba hasn't played since the Tour Champs and Dustin missed cut in Hong Kong (a course that didn't suit). I'm happy to take the pair against the field here with Scott and Rory the biggest dangers. Poulter may be the best value @ 45/1. At bigger prices Leishman looks value at 150/1. The in form Kevin Na at 20/1 looks decent but faces much better opposition on a course that may not suit him so well.

1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 18/1 (-3 pts)

1.5 points each way Dustin Johnson @ 18/1
(+1.13 points)

0.5 points each way Marc Leishman @ 150/1 (-1 pt)

Sanderson Farm Championship

Jason Bohn is the 9/1 favourite for this PGA Tour event. A sentence I never thought I'd say! Its fair, he is in the form of his life and finished 2nd here last year. I think Bohn is the most likely in this weak field. I think William McGirt is his closest rival and the rest packed together behind these two. 9/1 about Bohn is too short, 20/1 McGirt is not too exciting either. I like Kizzire at 20/1, he has serious ability and has a lot of confidence right now. Maybe the best value bet here is John Rollins who finished 4th here last year. You can back him at 250/1, 200/1 general. He has been playing some horrible stuff of late but should have won this last year. A closing 73 cost him. He may be worth chancing to regain form on a course he likes, and he needs a big week.

David Toms, who finished 9th here last year and seems to fit the course profile fairly well, looks a fair price at 55/1.

0.75 points each way David Toms @ 55/1 (+9.56 points)

0.5 points each way John Rollins @ 200/1 (-1 pt)

Special Bets

0.5 point each way double Jason Bohn @ 9/1 and Bubba Watson @ 18/1 (-1 pt)

0.5 point each way double Jason Bohn @ 9/1 and Dustin Johnson @ 18/1 (-1 pt)

0.5 point each way double William McGirt @ 20/1 and Bubba Watson @ 18/1 (-1 pt)

0.5 point each way double William McGirt @ 20/1 and Dustin Johnson @ 18/1 (+6.75 points)

2015 running total =  -159.09 points. This week’s investment 13.5 points. This weeks P&L = +9.44

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.