UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 June 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Lyoness Open and FedEx St Jude Classic

Again, I am sorry, there will be no in depth preview this week. After travelling back from the States on Monday I am now in La Gomera trying to get ready for the Challenge Tour event starting tomorrow. There will be a full preview next week when I am at Pinehurst for the US Open.

In Austria Luiten looks a very strong favourite and this is reflected in his price. Jimenez could be a danger in his ‘new home town.’ He is newly married to an Austrian lady from Vienna. Outside of that there is nothing solid or of any startling value to get me interested.

I like a few players in the FedEx St Jude. I like 2012 champion Dustin Johnson, Ryan Palmer, defending champion Harris English, John Senden and Will MacKenzie.

Willy MacK is sliding quickly. His putting, greens in regulation and scrambling rankings full every time he tees it up. He is tempting at the prices offered now based on his early season form but he showed very little last week coming off a couple of weeks off. Until we see signs of an upturn he can’t be backed. Kevin Stadler is in a similar position. He is priced nicely considering his course form and early season play, but with key stats on the slide, even after an improved effort last week, he is best left alone.

English defends and has obvious chances but his recent form has been weak and his putting woes continue. He is too short to risk at a best price of 30/1, 25/1 general. What we can learn from English is the importance of hitting greens here. He ranked 7th in greens hit and 1st in greens hit from the rough last year.

Dustin Johnson also backed this up when he won. He is a solid golfer but maybe not the most solid character. This makes it difficult to judge when he is going to fire. His ability is undoubted, he just has a ‘complicated’ off course life. That’s why, even though he is the most likely winner in my eyes, I can’t back him at sub 20/1.

That leaves me with Senden and Palmer. Now I am not overly impressed with the prices on either but Senden hits a lot of greens and is an improved putter this season. He has a win and has found the places a few times this year, including last time out when finishing 5th at Colonial. He had a 4th here in 2009 and is worth an interest at 33/1.

Palmer initially looks a shocking price at 22/1. You’re talking about a player who has not won since 2010 and only won 3 times in 10 years on tour. But, he does have 5 top 10’s in 14 starts this year and has finished 3rd and 4th here the last two years. I want to back him but then I think Dustin is only a few points shorter than him and that seems to close.

So here we are, three players in form, three players who play well here, three guys who are great ball strikers, three guys that are not massive prices. They are so similar as well.

Total Driving - DJ 25th, Senden 28th, Palmer 22nd
GIR - DJ 8th, Senden 13th, Palmer 21st.
Putting - DJ 79th, Senden 14th, Palmer 58th.
Scrambling - DJ 98th, Senden 41st, Palmer 104th.
Scoring - DJ 9th, Senden 20th, Palmer 18th.

Right, Senden is my bet. He is the biggest price of the three and although the records don’t really show it, scrambling has to be a factor. Ryan Palmer won scrambling last year when finishing 4th but he also led proximity which suggests he had the easiest leaves. The greens at TPC Southwind are only 5420 square feet on average so accurate irons and scrambling have to be important. Therefore Senden’s 13th in greens, 14th in putting, 41st in scrambling and slightly higher price make him the bet. Surely if they are hard to split then the biggest price is the value anyway. Then lets hope Dustin’s putting, which has been on the slide for 4 events continues in that direction and that his brain is somewhere else, so then we’ll have no regrets!

FedEx St. Jude Classic

1 point each way John Senden @ 33/1

2014 running total =  -32.6 points. This week’s investment 2 points. This weeks P&L = -2 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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