UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 January 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

SBS Tournament of Champions

Happy New Year to you all. 2016 was a tough year for trying to pick value winners. A lot of short price winners went in and a few big surprises occasionally shocked. There were very few progressive players that came from the big prices and established themselves as consistent contenders at decent prices. Still, we snuck a small profit on the outrights for the year, be it only a 3.88 point profit; still, better than losing!

2017 promises to offer us a few more chances, mainly thanks to Nike stepping out of the golf equipment market. I think we have seen so many players (Watney, Noh, Wattel, Ross Fisher to name a few) over the years either disappear from prominence when signing or, if in a higher pay grade, take an awful long time to adjust (Casey, Rory, Molinari etc). Nearly all Nike players have played with inferior equipment that was set up badly, with only the top guys getting near the right service and advice.

I expect to see a lot of them make huge leaps forward throughout the season. I am especially excited about Wattel and Noh. Noh went from a great driver of the ball with Titleist to a terrible driver of the ball with Nike, but has and retains bundles of ability. Wattel's equipment was so badly set up that he was making all sorts of adjustments to compensate and has underachieved as a result, Westwood once described him as "the best young player I have seen." It may take a bit of time to get a new set up perfected and to regain confidence, but these guys are worth following. We have already seen Ross Fisher get back to near his best since switching ball, putter and driver. All the other players did not take long to jump ship and switch. Nobody wanted to use it longer than necessary. Players just didn't like the clubs and especially the ball. Others like Scott Jamieson will also be watched closely. I always thought he had huge quality but signed with Nike almost as soon as he got his card. I also expect Rory to get back to number one and have a very big year.

In 2017 I will be watching more Tours too. Outside the European Tour and the PGA Tour it is tough to get a bet to any decent money but there is often some good value offers that we can stake small and hope to profit big from. As always, I will recommend at prices all can get on and not just stand out, incorrect prices that will disappear quickly. As a result, with fields often confirmed late for smaller events and more Friday starts, the selections will tend to be published on a Wednesday evening and sent out on email. To not miss out on any tips published later please register for the in running and specials email by sending an email with the subject 'in running and specials'.

Best of luck for 2017.

SBS Tournament of Champions
On to this week. The first event of the PGA Tour calendar year starts Thursday in Hawaii. 32 of 38 winners from last season take their places on Kapalua's Plantation Course, a long par 73 at 7452 yards which has been soaked with rain the last few weeks. We will see less 400 yard plus drives than normal despite the massive elevation changes and perhaps not the low scores like the -30 Spieth won with last year, but this is a quality line up.

It is easy to make arguments for the favourites again. 11/2 Spieth is not awful. Course form of 2-1 and coming off a win in his last official start in Australia makes it seem appetising. The lenient nature of the course tee to green add to that. But his long game is not as good as it was and although lenient, with big fairways and huge greens, you have to create chances to go low. His long putting is his biggest advantage here, even on these slow bermuda greens.

Matsuyama has won 4 of his last 5 starts (other was a 2nd) and has finally been able to match his putting up with his always excellent long game. A lesson from Iwata seems to have done the trick. He can win this for sure, also 11/2. Dustin Johnson can win anywhere and the rain will help him. 6/1 is fair. Day says he is fit and ready after 4 months off, if true 9/1 is also very fair. But how can you pick one of these against the other at the prices, they are very well matched but all could be a little rusty.

I am going to take a chance on debutant Branden Grace at 40/1. He has played more than most of late, 7 events since the end of the 2016 PGA Tour season. He is very good tee to green and his bullet ball flight will work well around here. The grainy greens are something he will be comfortable with having grown up on similar in SA. He will create the chances and knows how to go low. 10/1 for a place is a bigger price than any of the aforementioned runners at the top of the market, and he appears to be the value, especially if the wind picks up.

SBS Tournament of Champions - Outright

1 point each way Branden Grace @ 40/1

SBS Tournament of Champions - 72 hole match bet

6 points Daniel Berger @ 10/11 to beat Jimmy Walker (Bet 365)

SBS Tournament of Champions - 1st Round Matches

2 points Snedeker @ EVS to beat Walker

Antepost 2017 Season

4 points Rory McIlroy to win a Major in 2017 @ 2/1 (Bet Victor)

This week's P&L = -10
This week’s investment = 14 points

This week's Outright P&L = -2
This weeks's Outright Investment = 2 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -8
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 12 points

2017 Total P&L = -14
2017 Total Investment =  14 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -2
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 2 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -8
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 12 points

2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.