UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 February 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Farmers Insurance Open and Malaysian Open

Very brief this week as the Team Norway training camp finished today and I have to take an early flight in the morning to attend a funeral in Norway.

We were unlucky with Streb last week. He is continues to be an impressively consistent player that constantly lurks around the top 10 then doesn’t quite find that extra gear, which is a surprise as some of the streaks of scoring he puts together in the early rounds shows his ability, and he did it on Sunday at The McGladery when he stormed through the field with a 63 to get in a playoff, which he went on to win. He is worth persevering with. Statistically he is very strong and he doesn’t come with the glitz and glamour that many of the young, big hitting generation do. This is good for us as he is better than most of them yet his style keeps him out of the limelight therefore not deflating his price artificially.

The real positive from the week was our antepost plays on Matsuyama and Koepka for the US Moneylist. 1st and a 2nd at Phoenix sees both of them sitting comfortably within the top 10 at this early stage. Further good news is Koepka is now 19th in the world so Majors and WGC events are guaranteed for this year.

This week on the European Tour we are at the beautiful Kuala Lumpur Country Club in Malaysia. This is a fantastic and fair test of golf. At just under 7000 yards the players will have perfect course conditions. Only the high humidity and some weather delays will give the players an excuse. I like Bernd Wiesberger, he is in great form and finished 2nd here last year. 12/1 is too short though. I also like Danny Willett who again is in top form and has an excellent record here with 3 top 6s and a 17th in his four starts. 16/1 just isn’t big enough against some strong opposition. I would have backed Emillano Grillo at 40/1 if he had anything better than a pair of missed cuts on this course.

I would love to back Victor Dubuisson at 20/1, although he is more generally available at a less enticing 14-16/1. The reason for this; confusion as to wether he is actually going to tee it up. There are rumours he was in a French hospital this morning and he was going to fly tonight. He has been quoted as saying he is not playing and has been taken out of the entry list but is still in the tee times and still in the betting. Tough to recommend despite looking like the perfect fit for this on paper. So, not bets in Malaysia.

In the States they play the Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines. Three on the South and one on the North. A low one on the North is a must. I never thought I would ever see 50/1 about seven time course winner Tiger Woods. Not even if it was his 70th year on the planet! But he is and I could never justify making a case for him. A real shame. I wouldn’t be surprised to see better from him. If the reason for his shortgame horrors are truly technical, as he says, well, he should be able to fix that in minutes. If there is a more deep rooted issue, well, go 100/1 and I will still not be tempted.

Anyway, I like Koepka 28/1, Matsuyama 20/1 and Walker 14/1. Matsuayama and Walker are priced restrictively where Brooks is backable at 28/1. 1st in driving distance, 14th in greens, 35th in putting, 1st in scoring, 4th in scrambling. There is not much not to like. I don’t think it is a huge price, but it is fair. At bigger prices I like Laird 50/1, Chappell 100/1, De Jonge 125/1, Gomez 350/1 and Bae 100/1 but they are a long way back of aforementioned three.

Malaysian Open

No Bet

Farmers Insurance Open

1.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 28/1

2015 running total =  -24.49 points. This week’s investment 3 points. This weeks P&L = -3 points

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.